pbrussell Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Looks like there is a tds with that southern Texas storm. At 1:24 am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twistingtornado Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Correlation coefficient shows that it's rain wrapping around the RFD, not a debris ball. So not a TDS. Radar station is to the NE, so the velocity signature in the screenshot I posted isn't as impressive as it may appear to the untrained eye. Can say the velocity signature has been all over the place in the past 15-20 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Incredible structures on those SCs even if they aren't producing tornadoes. Beautiful mesos and clearly damaging hail cores. Edit: That meso intensified. Looks like it may've even briefly produced. There may've even been another brief TDS east of the main meso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twistingtornado Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 The 06/07/08z HRRR runs have a cluster of supercells forming over western Mississippi by 21z that track into northern Alabama. NWS in Huntsville is describing the HRRR as an outlier in how far north it lifts the warm front- most models lift the warm front through at least northeastern AL, while HRRR is lifting the warm front north of the AL/TN border. That'd be the worst case scenario for northern AL, but at least it's an outlier. Warm front is still one thing to keep an eye on when looking at observations today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Radar indicated Tor warning near Fredricksberg TX EDIT: Another one out near Waco EDIT 2: Fredricksburg storm, still tor warned, now heading into Austin suburbs. Meanwhile another is heading towards Fairfield, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 What’s the timing on that huge complex in Texas moving northeast... seems like it’ll roll into MS during time heating should be going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 No hint from the SPC that we’ll see an upgrade at any point. Just too much uncertainty at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said: No hint from the SPC that we’ll see an upgrade at any point. Just too much uncertainty at the moment. Yeah, this seems like it should stay MOD (at least for the next outlook). Only scenario I see for an upgrade to HIGH is if there is the beginning of an outbreak underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: Yeah, this seems like it should stay MOD (at least for the next outlook). Only scenario I see for an upgrade to HIGH is if there is the beginning of an outbreak underway. It’s a tough spot for them to be in too. The ceiling on today is incredibly high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 minute ago, DanLarsen34 said: It’s a tough spot for them to be in too. The ceiling on today is incredibly high. I don't envy the forecaster seat in these types of events. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Lake Charles: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Just now, Bob's Burgers said: Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Those are definitely some mid level lapse rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said: This speaks to the potential today has. We’re talking about a MAJOR outbreak if things break right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Hopefully cloud debris etc, can restrict heating. remember everything has to be right for a major event to happen. Obviously the potential is there. I suspect the SPC is a bit less gung ho due to combination of the CAM's being subdued past couple of days plus recently there were a couple of events where they went high risk of off the charts tornado probs that fortunately did not pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Tomorrow still looking quite worrisome for the piedmont/coastal plains areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Hopefully cloud debris etc, can restrict heating. remember everything has to be right for a major event to happen. Obviously the potential is there. I suspect the SPC is a bit less gung ho due to combination of the CAM's being subdued past couple of days plus recently there were a couple of events where they went high risk of off the charts tornado probs that fortunately did not pan out. I'm thinking that's why to this point they didn't go from Moderate to High. But given that this event has been moderate risk since day 3, even if they keep it moderate, there's plenty of warning out there that most normal "on the street" people should at least be heeding for the possibility that yes this may get ugly. and that in and of itself I hope helps save lives, no matter what the final outcome is at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Yeah hate reading this on the last SPC update... The main question with this outlook is convective mode. There are two possibilities. The first is that the band of thunderstorms will have discrete elements and gaps that will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings at 15Z from southern Virginia southward into northern South Carolina show looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm relative helicities in the extreme catogory, generally near or above 600 m2/s2. This would support a threat for strong tornadoes associated with the more dominant supercells. A wind damage and hail threat would be likely with supercells and with the more organized line segments. The second scenario would be that a squall-line is ongoing at 12Z from eastern Georgia northward into the western Carolinas and Virginia. In that case, widespread wind damage would be likely. A QLCS tornado threat would exist with the stronger bowing line segments. Hail would also be possible with the more intense parts of the line. At this time, the outlook reflects the first scenario in which more discrete cells are present across the warm sector at 12Z. In this case, a cluster outbreak of tornadoes would be possible and a strong long-track tornado or two can not be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 12z 3k and CAMs looking more like HRRR as far as UH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Seems like consensus is outbreak is unlikely, but a strong one or two are possible if some things work out right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Seems like consensus is outbreak is unlikely, but a strong one or two are possible if some things work out right.Not sure where you are see that. For the most part I’ve read that nothing is off the table. So much uncertainty with this. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 I’d say a localized outbreak of tornadic supercells is most probable from central to northeastern MS and northern AL. The ongoing convective activity will probably temper the threat a bit farther NW, but even there you’ll likely see a few QLCS tornadoes and maybe a few embedded supercells. That environment advecting NE from Louisiana toward MS is going to be nasty once you get just a few hours of daytime heating. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Welp... sun is poking through in Knoxville . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Not sure where you are see that. For the most part I’ve read that nothing is off the table. So much uncertainty with this. . This is spot on. The ceiling is incredibly high today, but we don’t know how things are going to break yet, and likely won’t for a few more hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormySquares Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Tony Lyza is quite bullish on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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