Apr. 6-8 Severe Risks

[hlcater]

I think I'm the only one in here that wanted a part of that 2" hail around here earlier. So that's exactly what I did. Went and got cored near Springville to the company of multiple stones larger than golf ball size with a few exceeding 2". Then decided to set up on a hill and get a time lapse of the backside of the storms illuminated by the sunset. I'm no photographer so this is just about as good as sunset time lapses are gonna get for me. 

 

Warning: The first video is *loud*. 

 

 

[frostfern]

I just found out the cell I barely got out of the way of did drop 2" hail in Plainwell, Michigan.  Looks like I high-tailed north just in time.  I did run into a solid line of 60+ dbs in the dark driving north, but the hail thankfully didn't get bigger than dime size.

[Chinook]

Possible tornado near Medina, OH

[nwohweather]

Wouldn’t call it an over-performer really, when some guidance had it nailed for days.

More like another SPC bust to add to a quickly growing list. To think, yesterday afternoons SWODY2 totally removed even general t’storm into the RFD area.


.

Sir are you calling today a bust? Goodness, it may have lacked tornadoes but there was incredible spread of severe weather and a derecho barreling through Ohio

[madwx]

8 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Sir are you calling today a bust? Goodness, it may have lacked tornadoes but there was incredible spread of severe weather and a derecho barreling through Ohio

no, he's calling the SPC forecast a bust, especially the day 2 afternoon outlook

[cyclone77]

Almost 240 severe hail reports now, with over 30 2"+ hail reports.  Extremely impressive.  

Numerous pics from Davenport and Bettendorf on local news fb pages showing hail between 2-3" in diameter.  Baseballs were falling in fairly highly populated areas.  Insurance adjusters are going to be busy for awhile in that area.

[snowlover2]

10 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Sir are you calling today a bust? Goodness, it may have lacked tornadoes but there was incredible spread of severe weather and a derecho barreling through Ohio

I think by bust he means SPC should have had the enhanced area expanded west across N IL/S WI/E IA judging by all the hail/sig hail in that area.

[snowlover2]

Large enhanced on new day 1.

Quote

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1259 AM CDT WED APR 08 2020  
 
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z  
 
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE MID MISSISSIPPI...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS  
OF CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND LIKELY FROM THE MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN  
MOUNTAINS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE  
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.  
   
..MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE  
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID  
60S TO LOWER 70S F WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY  
ACROSS A BROAD AREA FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO  
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG  
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE AREA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT  
PERIOD. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO FIRST DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, TO  
THE WEST OF A SURFACE LOW, IN NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SUPERCELLS  
WILL BE LIKELY AS CELLS REMAIN DISCRETE FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS  
EVENING. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND  
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL.  
HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE  
WITH THE STRONGER MORE DISCRETE STORMS. DUE TO STRONG FRONTAL  
FORCING, THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST GROW UPSCALE, CONGEAL AND  
DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE IN THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MID TO LATE  
EVENING. THIS SQUALL-LINE SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS DAMAGING  
WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO THREAT.  
 
CONVECTION IS ALSO FORECAST TO INITIATE EARLY THIS EVENING  
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS,  
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY  
REMAIN DISCRETE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE EVENING, MOVING  
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.  
MODEL FORECASTS ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE WILL APPROACH  
3000 J/KG BY EARLY EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALSO BE STRONGLY  
SHEARED, FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF  
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE  
DOMINANT STORMS. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER IN  
THE EVENING, SQUALL-LINE FORMATION APPEARS LIKELY. NUMEROUS DAMAGING  
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER PARTS OF  
THE SQUALL LINE.

 

[A-L-E-K]

7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The cell in northern Cook county did some work.  Baseball size hail reported in Evanston. 

 wasn't too bummed about missing this bad boy, made lots of noise. wish is was an hour earlier or so for better pics tho

[NTXYankee]

7 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Sir are you calling today a bust? Goodness, it may have lacked tornadoes but there was incredible spread of severe weather and a derecho barreling through Ohio

I wouldn’t call what came through Ohio a derecho.  The line literally fell apart as it was moving through Ohio’s typical hostile environment for a good thunderstorm in the central part of state.  I’ve seen general storms with more bang than what we got last night.

[Indystorm]

Enhanced  area expanded in the 1300 SPC outlook.

[nwohweather]

46 minutes ago, NTXYankee said:

I wouldn’t call what came through Ohio a derecho.  The line literally fell apart as it was moving through Ohio’s typical hostile environment for a good thunderstorm in the central part of state.  I’ve seen general storms with more bang than what we got last night.

Wind reports from this morning on that line out of Cleveland...

 

Went from Cleveland to DC with reports

[OHweather]

44 minutes ago, NTXYankee said:

I wouldn’t call what came through Ohio a derecho.  The line literally fell apart as it was moving through Ohio’s typical hostile environment for a good thunderstorm in the central part of state.  I’ve seen general storms with more bang than what we got last night.

The line that went from near Cleveland to SE of Pittsburgh was very intense and there were certainly winds in excess of 70 or 75 mph in spots...the only reason it may have fallen just short of a technical derecho is I'm not quite sure it went 400 miles (although it's fairly close at least).  

[nwohweather]

The line that went from near Cleveland to SE of Pittsburgh was very intense and there were certainly winds in excess of 70 or 75 mph in spots...the only reason it may have fallen just short of a technical derecho is I'm not quite sure it went 400 miles (although it's fairly close at least).  

I thought a derecho was 240 miles in distance and 50 miles wide?

[janetjanet998]

Talk about dewpoint mixing over IL today

 

but then a thin tongue of deeper moisture around the developing convection later

[OHweather]

19 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

I thought a derecho was 240 miles in distance and 50 miles wide?

There are different definitions and they've changed over time, and it's possible I'm mistaken...although if you count the reports in MD it was 400 miles anyways.  Regardless, the wind from that MCS was very impressive with that measured gust of 75 at KPIT and some other reports of legitimate structural damage, and I think they'll confirm something tornadic S of Cleveland too.

[janetjanet998]

HRRR, NAMnest drop my dewpoints from 56 now  to around 40 by at 21z but then shots up to 56 again at 22z with the convection

The areas around lake Michigan in IND stay in the mid/ upper 50's  I assume from clouds/lake breeze and not mixing

12z NAM is a little more moist then 06z

 

is the mixing out over IL overdone? will there be  any correction as time goes on (like the NAM) if it is overdone?

RAP the same and drops dewpoints into the 30's

 

[A-L-E-K]

gonna get crushed

[snowlover2]

2 hours ago, Indystorm said:

Enhanced  area expanded in the 1300 SPC outlook.

And a mention of possible moderate risk area in later updates next one being in around 45 minutes.

Quote

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0744 AM CDT WED APR 08 2020  
 
VALID 081300Z - 091200Z  
 
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE OH  
AND TN VALLEYS...  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS  
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, SOME SIGNIFICANT, ARE EXPECTED FROM  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD  
INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.  
   
..MS/OH/TN VALLEY REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT  
 
AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG  
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM MT/ND THIS MORNING TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS  
VALLEY REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE  
PRECEDED BY A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE  
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, AS A TRAILING COLD  
FRONT SURGES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS/TN/LOWER OH VALLEY  
REGIONS. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE  
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S) WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD FROM  
THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TODAY, BENEATH AN  
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME. THE OVERALL SCENARIO APPEARS SUPPORTIVE  
OF INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS  
MO/IL TO THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT, IN AN ENVIRONMENT  
SUPPORTIVE OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  
 
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON  
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IA AS HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE NORTHERN  
STREAM TROUGH (AND A LEAD SPEED MAX) BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MORE  
MARGINAL MOISTURE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.  
THE INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL INTO IL. CONVECTION WILL SUBSEQUENTLY  
SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG THE INSTABILITY  
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN, AND LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO A LARGER  
CLUSTER WITH INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.  
 
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE  
COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH, STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE  
VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST MO. LARGE BUOYANCY (MLCAPE OF 3000 J/KG OR  
LARGER) IS LIKELY FROM SOUTHEAST MO EASTWARD AS BOUNDARY-LAYER  
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD BENEATH 8-9 C/KM MIDLEVEL  
LAPSE RATES. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INITIALLY BE A LITTLE  
WEAKER IN THIS CORRIDOR BETWEEN THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM AND A  
SOUTHERN STREAM FROM TX TO THE SOUTHEAST, BUT THE LARGE  
BUOYANCY/STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR BY  
THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND GROWING CLUSTERS  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LIKE THE  
INITIAL CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH IN IL, UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN  
EXTENSIVE QLCS APPEARS LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE  
TN AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGIONS, WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR FAIRLY  
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR  
WITH THE INITIAL DISCRETE CELLS, THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE  
RELATIVELY WEAK, OR WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS IN THE LATER QLCS AS  
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND MODERATE-STRONG BUOYANCY IS  
MAINTAINED WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
CONFIDENCE IN THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST HAIL/WIND THREAT IS STILL A  
BIT UNCERTAIN THIS MORNING, BUT AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER  
PROBABILITIES/MODERATE RISK IS POSSIBLE IN LATER UPDATES.

 

[snowlover2]

No real changes on the new day 1.

[WeatherMonger]

The only real change was extending the enhanced area NW in IL

 

[WeatherMonger]

Hatched hail was the only categorical risk extended with it

 

[Jonger]

I'm glad all the hail missed me to the south. 

[WestMichigan]

26 minutes ago, Jonger said:

I'm glad all the hail missed me to the south. 

Me too.  Had a short period of pea size but it didn't last long.  Lake Michigan for the win last night!

[Chicago Storm]

12 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Sir are you calling today a bust? Goodness, it may have lacked tornadoes but there was incredible spread of severe weather and a derecho barreling through Ohio

 

12 hours ago, madwx said:

no, he's calling the SPC forecast a bust, especially the day 2 afternoon outlook

Exactly. The event itself was definitely not a bust, SPC was a bust with another terrible performance.

[Indystorm]

Don't know how much to trust this morning's 12z NAM since it is showing strong tor potential around Terre Haute and Evansville this evening.  It was way incorrect in predicting svr storms for central IN for late last night.   I'm thinking winds are much more unidirectional with today's episode and the concern is for large hail once again.   Thoughts?

[janetjanet998]

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0310  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0146 PM CDT WED APR 08 2020  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTEAST IA...NORTHEAST MO...AND MUCH OF WESTERN  
AND CENTRAL IL  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 081846Z - 082045Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
HOURS NEAR SOUTHEAST IA/NORTHEAST MO/WEST-CENTRAL IL. VERY LARGE  
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH  
THESE STORMS.  
  
DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA INTO MO/IL AHEAD OF  
A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN WEAK TO MODERATE  
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HAS  
BEEN NOTED ACROSS IL, WHERE MORNING DEWPOINTS HAD BEEN IN THE MID  
50S F, GENERALLY ARE NOW IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S F. FURTHER SOUTH  
ACROSS MO TOWARD SOUTHERN IL, DEWPOINTS FROM THE LOW 60S TO UPPER  
50S F WERE BEING MAINTAINED. ALOFT, A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL  
LAPSE RATES HAS CONTINUED TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-MS  
VALLEY, WITH 18Z REGIONAL RAOBS SHOWING 8-9 C/KM LAPSE RATES IN  
PLACE. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM  
SOUTHEAST IA INTO IL HAS BEEN INCREASING, WHILE ADDITIONAL DEEPENING  
OF MIDLEVEL CU NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER CONTINUES. STRONGER HEIGHT  
FALLS HAVE BEEN NOTED RECENTLY ACROSS SD/NE INTO SOUTHERN MN AND  
WESTERN IA AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE BEGINS TO EJECT ACROSS THE  
AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE  
ADEQUATE FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
HOURS.   
  
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SEMI-DISCRETE, HIGHER-BASED  
SUPERCELLS. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LONG, STRAIGHT  
HODOGRAPHS WITH SPEED SHEAR INCREASING WITH HEIGHT. IN CONJUNCTION  
WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES, LARGE HAIL (SOME GREATER THAN 2 INCHES  
IN DIAMETER) IS EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO ARE STEEP  
ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO AMPLE HEATING AND MIXING. THIS SHOULD ACT  
TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS, AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO ARE EXPECTED. AS  
FRONTAL FORCING INCREASES LATER THIS EVENING, AND THROUGH STORM  
OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS, UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING  
SEGMENTS IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MO INTO CENTRAL IL,  
FURTHER ENHANCING THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. GIVEN GENERALLY DRY LOW  
LEVELS RESULTING IN HIGHER-BASED STORMS, AT LEAST INITIALLY, THE  
TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER MARGINAL.  
  
..LEITMAN/GUYER.. 04/08/2020  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
  
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...  
  
LAT...LON   41029220 41159207 41289159 41359108 41259048 41128995  
            40938931 40628849 40138781 39788757 39568758 39328769  
            38838828 38358943 38019044 37879151 379492

[janetjanet998]

Yep,

dew points really mixed out alright

 

 

[A-L-E-K]

Starting to see some cu

 

[WeatherMonger]

Surprised watch isn't out yet.