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Apr. 6-8 Severe Risks


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25 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Hoping those cells coming in from the Cedar Rapids area crap out, or veer a bit south.  Don't want any part of golfball size hail.

EDIT:  SPC got a little too cute with their western portion of the storm outlooks.  Numerous severe well west of even the marginal risk area.

Big win for the ECMWF and RGEM with this system.

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14 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Kinda surprised by no IWX area watch yet

It'll be interesting to see what happens when the best forcing comes onshore from Lake Michigan into SW MI and N IN. Will the line fill in quickly or will it be a swing and a miss? 

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11 minutes ago, OHweather said:

The HRRR and RGEM will take the wins any way they can get them with convection.

actually, the RGEM is a lot better with convection ever since they made their spring 2013 upgrade, including 4dvar. before that, yea is was horrible. whatever they did then made them go from "convective trash" to "usable in convection and even decent in convective modes".

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6 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

It'll be interesting to see what happens when the best forcing comes onshore from Lake Michigan into SW MI and N IN. Will the line fill in quickly or will it be a swing and a miss? 

Its coming...  just got issued... severe thunderstorm watch that is

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3 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said:

actually, the RGEM is a lot better with convection ever since they made their spring 2013 upgrade, including 4dvar. before that, yea is was horrible. whatever they did then made them go from "convective trash" to "usable in convection and even decent in convective modes".

It's overall a fairly usable model, I just haven't been able to trust it as much with convection...it did quite well here though, and did quite well in OH/PA last Saturday when many of the traditional CAMs said they'd stay dry in the warm sector during the afternoon and they didn't.

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From 0100 SPC outlook this evening

Further south, the 00Z sounding at Lincoln, Illinois shows 50 kt of
   0-6 km shear with a 700-500 mb lapse rate of 7.7 C/km. This is
   sampling an elevated mixed layer which the RAP shows from eastern
   Iowa extending eastward into northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.
   Supercells that develop along this corridor will be capable of
   producing large hail, with some hailstones greater than 2 inches in
   diameter possible. Supercells and bowing line segments will also be
   capable of damaging wind gusts. The greatest potential for very
   large hail and more numerous damaging wind gusts is forecast to be
   from southern Lower Michigan southeastward across northeast Indiana
   and north-central Ohio. The RAP is also showing a low-level speed
   max over southern Lake Michigan. This feature will move eastward
   with time and make low-level shear strong enough for an isolated
   tornado threat with the more dominant supercells.
 

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 84
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   905 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Northern Indiana
     Far southern Lower Michigan
     Northern Ohio
     Northwest Pennsylvania
     Lake Erie
     Lake Michigan

   * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 905 PM
     until 300 AM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible
     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
       to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of supercells will evolve east-southeast
   tonight with development into a broader MCS expected. A mix of large
   hail and damaging wind gusts appear probable.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
   statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles south of
   Valparaiso IN to 35 miles north northeast of Youngstown OH. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

ww0084_radar.gif

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Don't need any more hassles right now from the wx dept. but severe warned I am..

 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning


Severe Thunderstorm Warning
MIC025-077-080245-
/O.NEW.KGRR.SV.W.0016.200408T0113Z-200408T0245Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
913 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Calhoun County in south central Michigan...
  Kalamazoo County in southwestern Michigan...

* Until 1045 PM EDT.

* At 913 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Hastings to 7 miles north of Paw Paw, moving
  southeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
           damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect
           wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
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11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Storm developed basically overhead but it was out of here before it really blew up.  Now severe warned. 

Ya got more coming at ya from the west/nw.:D   Interesting that the line of storms is now oriented more on an east/west horizontal axis rather than the earlier NE/SW.

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53 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

lead supercell NW of Ann Arbor may have best tornado potential

any meso may go just west of the city

 

 

I just got back from intercepting it. Had a few minutes of hail up to around a quarter. But most were dime sized. The meso formed when I was there but as of when I had left there wasn't much tightening going on.

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14 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Don't need any more hassles right now from the wx dept. but severe warned I am..

 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning



Severe Thunderstorm Warning
MIC025-077-080245-
/O.NEW.KGRR.SV.W.0016.200408T0113Z-200408T0245Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
913 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Calhoun County in south central Michigan...
  Kalamazoo County in southwestern Michigan...

* Until 1045 PM EDT.

* At 913 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Hastings to 7 miles north of Paw Paw, moving
  southeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
           damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect
           wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Storm over by BC has nearly tennis ball hail. Warned my friend en route to BC right now and he is gonna stop till it passes lol. Per radarscope and VIL. Said 2.5" hail. Warned for golfball  though.

 

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Thankfully no hail here, but still a legit storm. The duration of the howling wind/rain combo was impressive as it's been several years of mostly misses in this immediate locale. We did get that hailer last year, but it came without much else. I was in the shower that day and missed most of it tbh. 

Pretty high returns bordering on extreme just to my west

 

20200407 10pm radar during Severe T-storm.PNG

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Chasing was pretty frustrating as elevated cells looking intense over central Lake Michigan heading straight for me weakened as soon as they moved inland.  The mesos that finally made it inland over Allegan county were messy and surrounded with rain, plus it was getting dark.  The lightning was incredible though.  Not a ton of CGs, but very very frequent strobing.  Sadly I wasn't able to find a clear distant view of the towers moving away as there was a lot of low cloud / haze in the way every time I checked.  August 29 2019 was a better show only because it cleared out very well giving a perfect 25 mile view of the upper parts of the CB towers and anvil-crawlers.

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Already 170 severe hail reports today, with 17 of those at 2" or larger.  Looks like this could have been a moderate, with hatched hail extended back into eastern IA.  A definite overperformer to be sure, at least on the west end of things.  

Wouldn’t call it an over-performer really, when some guidance had it nailed for days.

More like another SPC bust to add to a quickly growing list. To think, yesterday afternoons SWODY2 totally removed even general t’storm into the RFD area.


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