madwx Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 25 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Hoping those cells coming in from the Cedar Rapids area crap out, or veer a bit south. Don't want any part of golfball size hail. EDIT: SPC got a little too cute with their western portion of the storm outlooks. Numerous severe well west of even the marginal risk area. Big win for the ECMWF and RGEM with this system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 lead supercell NW of Ann Arbor may have best tornado potential any meso may go just west of the city 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 1 minute ago, madwx said: Big win for the ECMWF and RAP with this system. Not the RAP, the RAP was also horrible. ECMWF and RGEM win on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, madwx said: Big win for the ECMWF and RAP with this system. Yep, and RGEM as well. Big time fail for the NAMs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 The HRRR and RGEM will take the wins any way they can get them with convection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 14 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Kinda surprised by no IWX area watch yet It'll be interesting to see what happens when the best forcing comes onshore from Lake Michigan into SW MI and N IN. Will the line fill in quickly or will it be a swing and a miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Not the RAP, the RAP was also horrible. ECMWF and RGEM win on this one. Yep, meant to say RGEM but mistyped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 11 minutes ago, OHweather said: The HRRR and RGEM will take the wins any way they can get them with convection. actually, the RGEM is a lot better with convection ever since they made their spring 2013 upgrade, including 4dvar. before that, yea is was horrible. whatever they did then made them go from "convective trash" to "usable in convection and even decent in convective modes". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: It'll be interesting to see what happens when the best forcing comes onshore from Lake Michigan into SW MI and N IN. Will the line fill in quickly or will it be a swing and a miss? Its coming... just got issued... severe thunderstorm watch that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Its coming... just got issued Yup. And already seeing some development just east of the lake shore. Amazing what a cold Lake Michigan does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said: actually, the RGEM is a lot better with convection ever since they made their spring 2013 upgrade, including 4dvar. before that, yea is was horrible. whatever they did then made them go from "convective trash" to "usable in convection and even decent in convective modes". It's overall a fairly usable model, I just haven't been able to trust it as much with convection...it did quite well here though, and did quite well in OH/PA last Saturday when many of the traditional CAMs said they'd stay dry in the warm sector during the afternoon and they didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 From 0100 SPC outlook this evening Further south, the 00Z sounding at Lincoln, Illinois shows 50 kt of 0-6 km shear with a 700-500 mb lapse rate of 7.7 C/km. This is sampling an elevated mixed layer which the RAP shows from eastern Iowa extending eastward into northern Indiana and northwest Ohio. Supercells that develop along this corridor will be capable of producing large hail, with some hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter possible. Supercells and bowing line segments will also be capable of damaging wind gusts. The greatest potential for very large hail and more numerous damaging wind gusts is forecast to be from southern Lower Michigan southeastward across northeast Indiana and north-central Ohio. The RAP is also showing a low-level speed max over southern Lake Michigan. This feature will move eastward with time and make low-level shear strong enough for an isolated tornado threat with the more dominant supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 84 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 905 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Indiana Far southern Lower Michigan Northern Ohio Northwest Pennsylvania Lake Erie Lake Michigan * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 905 PM until 300 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of supercells will evolve east-southeast tonight with development into a broader MCS expected. A mix of large hail and damaging wind gusts appear probable. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles south of Valparaiso IN to 35 miles north northeast of Youngstown OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Storm developed basically overhead but it was out of here before it really blew up. Now severe warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Don't need any more hassles right now from the wx dept. but severe warned I am.. Severe Thunderstorm Warning Severe Thunderstorm Warning MIC025-077-080245- /O.NEW.KGRR.SV.W.0016.200408T0113Z-200408T0245Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 913 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020 The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Calhoun County in south central Michigan... Kalamazoo County in southwestern Michigan... * Until 1045 PM EDT. * At 913 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Hastings to 7 miles north of Paw Paw, moving southeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Storm developed basically overhead but it was out of here before it really blew up. Now severe warned. Ya got more coming at ya from the west/nw. Interesting that the line of storms is now oriented more on an east/west horizontal axis rather than the earlier NE/SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Ya got more coming at ya from the west/nw. Keenly aware. Cell northeast of JOT looks like it will get in here though may sort of be on the southern edge of it per current motion... we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Storms to my west being warned for quarter size hail and 60 mph winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 53 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: lead supercell NW of Ann Arbor may have best tornado potential any meso may go just west of the city I just got back from intercepting it. Had a few minutes of hail up to around a quarter. But most were dime sized. The meso formed when I was there but as of when I had left there wasn't much tightening going on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 14 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Don't need any more hassles right now from the wx dept. but severe warned I am.. Severe Thunderstorm Warning Severe Thunderstorm Warning MIC025-077-080245- /O.NEW.KGRR.SV.W.0016.200408T0113Z-200408T0245Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 913 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020 The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Calhoun County in south central Michigan... Kalamazoo County in southwestern Michigan... * Until 1045 PM EDT. * At 913 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Hastings to 7 miles north of Paw Paw, moving southeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Storm over by BC has nearly tennis ball hail. Warned my friend en route to BC right now and he is gonna stop till it passes lol. Per radarscope and VIL. Said 2.5" hail. Warned for golfball though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Hailer in Kane Co playing follow the leader through the western and southern burbs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 This nw flow line of storms has me thinking it is July and not early April. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Literal pinger headed my way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Dodged a major bullet here. Sup dropping golfballs veered just enough to miss this area, and nail Davenport, and now the northeast portion of the IL QC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Already 170 severe hail reports today, with 17 of those at 2" or larger. Looks like this could have been a moderate, with hatched hail extended back into eastern IA. A definite overperformer to be sure, at least on the west end of things. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Thankfully no hail here, but still a legit storm. The duration of the howling wind/rain combo was impressive as it's been several years of mostly misses in this immediate locale. We did get that hailer last year, but it came without much else. I was in the shower that day and missed most of it tbh. Pretty high returns bordering on extreme just to my west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 The storms had continuous lightning here, heavy rain, and quite a bit of small marble sized hail. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Chasing was pretty frustrating as elevated cells looking intense over central Lake Michigan heading straight for me weakened as soon as they moved inland. The mesos that finally made it inland over Allegan county were messy and surrounded with rain, plus it was getting dark. The lightning was incredible though. Not a ton of CGs, but very very frequent strobing. Sadly I wasn't able to find a clear distant view of the towers moving away as there was a lot of low cloud / haze in the way every time I checked. August 29 2019 was a better show only because it cleared out very well giving a perfect 25 mile view of the upper parts of the CB towers and anvil-crawlers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 The cell in northern Cook county did some work. Baseball size hail reported in Evanston. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Already 170 severe hail reports today, with 17 of those at 2" or larger. Looks like this could have been a moderate, with hatched hail extended back into eastern IA. A definite overperformer to be sure, at least on the west end of things. Wouldn’t call it an over-performer really, when some guidance had it nailed for days.More like another SPC bust to add to a quickly growing list. To think, yesterday afternoons SWODY2 totally removed even general t’storm into the RFD area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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