Apr. 6-8 Severe Risks

[Jim Marusak]

for the storm heading into Muskegon, you thinking mainly hail and gusts, or with the rotation on the west end of the storm as seen on the SRV data, is there maybe the chance of a spin-up when the storm makes landfall north of the city of Muskegon itself?

[Indystorm]

[janetjanet998]

MKE storms , all but one, weakened some over the lake 

[The_Doctor]

Lol at that backward extension of the watch to accommodate the DBQ storm

[janetjanet998]

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND  
NORTHERN ILLINOIS  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE   
  
VALID 072207Z - 072330Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81 MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED  
WESTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS,  
WITH AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE POSSIBLE.  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE  
OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS  
APPEAR INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE THROUGH 6-8 PM CDT  
  
DISCUSSION...RAPID NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW UNDERWAY  
NEAR/NORTHEAST OF DUBUQUE IA.  THIS IS OCCURRING ALONG OR JUST AHEAD  
OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT, TRAILING AN EASTWARD MIGRATING SURFACE LOW  
NOW NEAR MILWAUKEE WI, AS THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL  
COOLING WEAKENS MID-LEVEL INHIBITION.  THIS MID-LEVEL COOLING IS  
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS  
THROUGH 00-02Z, AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUING INCREASE IN  
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH.  IN THE PRESENCE OF  
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, STEEP LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES  
AND CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG, SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS APPEAR  
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  

[sbnwx85]

New Severe Tstorm Watch for N IL, NW IN and extreme E IA. 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 82
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   525 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Far east-central Iowa
     Northern Illinois
     Far northwest Indiana
     Lake Michigan

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 525 PM until
     1100 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
       inches in diameter possible
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...A couple supercells may evolve into an east-southeast
   progressing cluster along a cold front from far eastern Iowa through
   northern Illinois this evening. Large hail should be the primary
   hazard.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
   statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west of
   Rockford IL to 15 miles north of Valparaiso IN. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 81...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   28035.

   ...Grams

[janetjanet998]

the lake may have prevented any tornado warnings so far(if the lake was land) as the original cells were trying to hook near WF but then fell apart over the stable midlake

one cell has made it onto land and may be riding the WF ESE

 

also note dewpoints seems be to be running about 2 degrees below what was modeled causing rather high LCLs over SW MI, this may improve slightly as we move past max heating

th

 

 

 

 

 

[Sydney Claridge]

Not necessarily pertinent to this subforum, but this storm over northern West Virginia looks pretty vicious right now. It is not that often that you see a storm like this over this region:

 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Might be getting some new initiation around Grand Rapids 

[Indystorm]

4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Might be getting some new initiation around Grand Rapids 

You've got a strong storm over central Lake Michigan still maintaining itself if it holds together and heads to Grand Rapids.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Baseball size hail mentioned in the warning for the cell near Monroe Wi 

[wisconsinwx]

3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Baseball size hail mentioned in the warning for the cell near Monroe Wi 

Near tennis ball (around 3") diameter hail was reported with the initial storm in the row of counties just north of Milwaukee.

[Chicago Storm]

The supercell off NW of Rockford is fairly sig.

Large TBSS  with it, and maxed out at 77dbz.

[kevlon62]

The supercell off NW of Rockford is fairly sig.
Large TBSS  with it, and maxed out at 77dbz.

What a beaut.

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[hawkeye_wx]

Large hail (golfball+) is hitting the northeast side of Cedar Rapids.  Another cell is about to hit me.  I sure hope we don't get that shit.

[sbnwx85]

I'm wondering if the gap over southern Lake Michigan will fill in before the line moves through my area. I'd be okay not dealing with severe weather tonight (never thought I'd say that. I think I'm getting old). 

[Chicago Storm]

Chicago metro likely to rolled the next few hours.

That main sup near RFD continues to roll, with the storm behind it taking on sup characteristics now as well. Then there's also new rapid development in McHenry/Lake Co's.

[kevlon62]

Blowing up overhead.

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[Chicago Storm]

15 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Large hail (golfball+) is hitting the northeast side of Cedar Rapids.  Another cell is about to hit me.  I sure hope we don't get that shit.

Several 2-2.50" hail reports in and around CID.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Rockford is about to get rolled by hail

[SchaumburgStormer]

10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Chicago metro likely to rolled the next few hours.

That main sup near RFD continues to roll, with the storm behind it taking on sup characteristics now as well. Then there's also new rapid development in McHenry/Lake Co's.

Continued development working back westward as well 

[kevlon62]

About five minutes of peas to marbles

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[hawkeye_wx]

I just experienced two rounds of hail up to 5/8" diameter.  It was fun to see that again because we just don't get much hail here and rarely larger than pea size.  We got lucky as the two large hail cores missed just north and south.

 

[madwx]

3" hail with the supercell when it was in Southern Wisconsin

[SchaumburgStormer]

16 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Continued development working back westward as well 

And it’s now severe warned 

[kevlon62]

Few new cars in the lots at Belvidere Assembly.

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[kevlon62]

Fairdale's got a view.

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[cyclone77]

Hoping those cells coming in from the Cedar Rapids area crap out, or veer a bit south.  Don't want any part of golfball size hail.

EDIT:  SPC got a little too cute with their western portion of the storm outlooks.  Numerous severe well west of even the marginal risk area.

[Chicago Storm]

Several 2.00-3.00" hail reports W to S of RFD area.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Kinda surprised by no IWX area watch yet