Quarantine, lack of vehicle emissions, and future weather?

[Ralph Wiggum]

Not sure this belongs here but wanted to start a discussion to hear thoughts on something. Let's say this shutdown/quarantine whatever you want to call it continues for another 4-6 months (hopefully not). We have seen factories closing, people not travelling, air traffic limited, etc. I have seen pics of cities before and current that show visible reduction in smog/haze/pollutants/emissions. I dont have actual proof that the reduction in emissions is doing anything, thus why I wanted to start a discussion to see if these cutbacks are actually helping to clean the atmosphere at all AND what could the implications be short term and longer term irt the weather? 

[KamuSnow]

Maybe it will allow next winter to be colder? Lol, but maybe.

[zenmsav6810]

NPR said there is a group of geoscience researchers saying that the reduction in atmospheric NOx is highly remarkable and demonstrably provable using sat imagery.  Going as far to say its statistically saved the lives of 4000 chinese children alone since this all started. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

There is this too:

"Around the world, seismologists are observing a lot less ambient seismic noise -- meaning, the vibrations generated by cars, trains, buses and people going about their daily lives. And in the absence of that noise, Earth's upper crust is moving just a little less.

Thomas Lecocq, a geologist and seismologist at the Royal Observatory in Belgium, first pointed out this phenomenon in Brussels.

Brussels is seeing about a 30% to 50% reduction in ambient seismic noise since mid-March, around the time the country started implementing school and business closures and other social distancing measures, according to Lecocq. That noise level is on par with what seismologists would see on Christmas Day, he said."

[Ralph Wiggum]

This is all one hell of a sacrifice for an NAO block during deep winter next year? We are getting anomalous NAO blocking currently that was poorly modeled and seemed to come out of nowhere. But then again, we have seen ridging in that zone show up in spring past few years so I doubt anyone could pin this on emission changes at the surface. You have to think on a global scale there is going to be 'some' effect on the atmosphere and subsequent weather eventually. I'm just really curious what that will be. And I realize there are going to be two sides as always to the discussion and AGW will inevitably be a part of the convo. Hopefully we can keep it professional here as I dont think either side can say for sure what will happen. We should use this as a situation where posters can respectfully bounce ideas around. Wishful thinking?

[KamuSnow]

11 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This is all one hell of a sacrifice for an NAO block during deep winter next year? We are getting anomalous NAO blocking currently that was poorly modeled and seemed to come out of nowhere. But then again, we have seen ridging in that zone show up in spring past few years so I doubt anyone could pin this on emission changes at the surface. You have to think on a global scale there is going to be 'some' effect on the atmosphere and subsequent weather eventually. I'm just really curious what that will be. And I realize there are going to be two sides as always to the discussion and AGW will inevitably be a part of the convo. Hopefully we can keep it professional here as I dont think either side can say for sure what will happen. We should use this as a situation where posters can respectfully bounce ideas around. Wishful thinking?

We're working on it, lol.

[Hurricane Agnes]

On 4/3/2020 at 10:48 AM, Ralph Wiggum said:

This is all one hell of a sacrifice for an NAO block during deep winter next year? We are getting anomalous NAO blocking currently that was poorly modeled and seemed to come out of nowhere. But then again, we have seen ridging in that zone show up in spring past few years so I doubt anyone could pin this on emission changes at the surface. You have to think on a global scale there is going to be 'some' effect on the atmosphere and subsequent weather eventually. I'm just really curious what that will be. And I realize there are going to be two sides as always to the discussion and AGW will inevitably be a part of the convo. Hopefully we can keep it professional here as I dont think either side can say for sure what will happen. We should use this as a situation where posters can respectfully bounce ideas around. Wishful thinking?

It's also possible a couple big volcanic eruptions could offset some of the drop in vehicle emissions.

One thing's for sure - if the rain every couple days pattern continues this spring, there will be a much-reduced chance of any massive triple-digit heatwaves this summer.

[Birds~69]

12 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

It's also possible a couple big volcanic eruptions could offset some of the drop in vehicle emissions.

One thing's for sure - if the rain every couple days pattern continues this spring, there will be a much-reduced chance of any massive triple-digit heatwaves this summer.

I'm all in with that plus more rain will keep the pollen count down. A win - win...

[Eskimo Joe]

Here is the Twitter profile for a well respect pollution / aerosol earth scientist at NASA Goddard.  I went to school with him and was always impressed with his knowledge of NOx and pollution mapping:  

https://twitter.com/ryans_wx

[MJO812]

A return to some normalcy amid coronavirus outbreak could be June or July, Murphy says

 

https://trib.al/lEler5b

[CoolHandMike]

Is it unusual to be consistently hitting the low 40's / upper 30's overnight this late into April? I was wondering if the vastly reduced amount of chemtrails er, airliner emissions might be having any effect on diurnal heating and dissipation.

[Ralph Wiggum]

On 4/27/2020 at 11:22 PM, CoolHandMike said:

Is it unusual to be consistently hitting the low 40's / upper 30's overnight this late into April? I was wondering if the vastly reduced amount of chemtrails er, airliner emissions might be having any effect on diurnal heating and dissipation.

I dont know, but us winter weather folks need to figure out what is causing all the BN temps and AN precip, NAO blocking, PNA ridging so that we can repeat this in DJF rather than MAM next year. If it means cancelling flights and closing factories I'm all in. Anything for a return to solid winter regimes during actual winter months. Obviously I mean this tongue in cheek....I dont want airlines or factories closed and job etc in jeopardy. But seriously, something's gotta give with these winter patterns occurring well into springtime.