Orangeburgwx Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 We now have Invest 93L Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 30, 2020 Author Share Posted July 30, 2020 This is not 93L but another wave behind it. 93L (a potential soon-to-be TC) moves NW somewhere west of the Verdes and dissipates. GFS wants to go gangbusters with the AEW behind it and grows a long-tracking deep MDR hurricane. Of note, the new GFS hasn't wanted to do jack squat with really any CV or MDR system up until now. Of course that is climatologically normal as typically this region doesn't start producing until mid August. Still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 IMO, 93L needs to be at least a PTC. Several ASCAT passes show it's healthy, has a tightening circulation and isn't getting disrupted by anything (shear, etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: TD TEN at 5pm. Unbelievable. And will be gone by tomorrow night lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 What, nobody's going to create a TD10 thread?!.. /s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yup. Really weird to get something that far east. Indeed! And it shows things are kind of messed up in the ern tropical Atlantic. Where is the deep easterly uniform flow that is almost always present this time of year that brings all African waves steadily westward? If this anomalous flow sticks around for awhile, it is going to put a dampener on some sig Cape Verde TC potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 TD10 about to waste the best name on the entire 2020 list for a 40mph TS. Sad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, hlcater said: TD10 about to waste the best name on the entire 2020 list for a 40mph TS. Sad! What name would that one be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 Indeed! And it shows things are kind of messed up in the ern tropical Atlantic. Where is the deep easterly uniform flow that is almost always present this time of year that brings all African waves steadily westward? If this anomalous flow sticks around for awhile, it is going to put a dampener on some sig Cape Verde TC potential.There's a 580 dm mid level trough / gyre extending west of the Cape Verdes. They do happen from time to time even in the EATL. But otherwise, the Azores heights have been doing their thing this year in typical fashion. Hence already having several MDR runners and strong 700 hPa wind bursts. In the first image, note the mid level trough. Also note 850 hPa vorticity field associated with TD10 riding northward and around. Regardless if TD10 gets named, it is doomed due to future encounter with marginal SSTs, but more importantly, the stable airmass about to blast off NW Africa due to, well, the Azores heights rebuilding and doing their thing again in a few days, i.e., nothing out of wack pattern-wise for any prolonged duration. Just a short-lived mid level PV trough about to get filled. See second image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: What name would that one be? Josephine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 1 hour ago, yoda said: Josephine i remember a hurricane josephine from 1984 it turned away at the last minute to avoid nyc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Seems Josephine may not be far behind actually even if TD 10 dissipates tomorrow Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaias, located near the central Bahamas, and on Tropical Depression Ten, located over the far eastern Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. 1. A westward-moving tropical wave located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a few disorganized showers. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development in a day or two, and a tropical depression could form early next week. This system is forecast to turn northwestward, and then northward over the western Atlantic north of the Leeward Islands through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. Forecaster Blake 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 No other models showing this but the CMC is on to storm entering the Caribbean next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 3, 2020 Author Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 5 hours ago, Windspeed said: NHC disagreed on the 2AM TWO Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Isaias, located just offshore of east-central Florida. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the area of disturbed weather located a few hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands does not have a surface circulation, and the associated shower activity is not well organized. However, environmental conditions could allow for some slow development of this system during the next several days, with a tropical depression possibly forming later this week. This system is forecast to move northwestward at about 15 mph over the southwestern Atlantic today and on Tuesday and then stall several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda by the middle to latter part of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 3, 2020 Author Share Posted August 3, 2020 Both the GFS and ECMWF, including their ensembles are quiet the next 10 days for TCG across the Atlantic Basin. The Euro op does hint at MDR development next week but we appear to be entering a break in activity. Not necessarily unwarranted. July was a busy month despite no TC getting especially intense. A climatological sharp rise in activity begins around the 19th. Most signals are still strong for a very active CV stretch of the season beginning in a few weeks and likely remaining that way through October. While we still have landfall and ECONUS impacts by Isaias to deal within the next 24 hours, after everything settles, enjoy the break. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 The 12z Euro and CMC are still hinting at MDR development in 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Zzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: Zzzzzz Hey wake up! GFS only 384 hours out which means this is gonna happen! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 And 94L is gone pretty much Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaias, located inland over southeastern North Carolina. 1. Showers and thunderstorms have mostly dissipated near a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda. Although a weak area of low pressure is expected to form over the next day or so, abundant dry air surrounding the system is likely to limit significant development. This system is forecast to move northwestward at about 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic today, stall several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda tonight, and then drift southwestward on Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Berg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 4, 2020 Author Share Posted August 4, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 4, 2020 Author Share Posted August 4, 2020 This is somewhat ominous. Wind shear has been anomalously low. Sure, there has still been shear, hence Isaias' struggles and being kept in check through the Bahamas and east of Florida. Still, wasn't enough to kill it as we have seen in past seasons with early TCs. Climatological shear tends to reach its lowest point throughout the MDR and WATL by September. How anomalous lower shear heading into this period affects TCG and long-trackers remains to be seen, but it's enough to raise an eyebrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 There's nothing more fantasyland than GFS at 384 hours, however... 1) It's been showing Gulf action now for four runs in a row at this timeframe 2) The GFS has been pretty quiet this year with fantasy storms. and most importantly... 3) It's 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 5, 2020 Author Share Posted August 5, 2020 There's nothing more fantasyland than GFS at 384 hours, however... 1) It's been showing Gulf action now for four runs in a row at this timeframe 2) The GFS has been pretty quiet this year with fantasy storms. and most importantly... 3) It's 2020Well if we're going to play the ~300 hr fantasy land game, why hello there upper divergent atmospheric crack on steroids... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 5, 2020 Author Share Posted August 5, 2020 So far 2020 has been gangbusters. We're low on ACE considering number of named storms due to no majors or long-tracking storms with persistent hurricane intensity, but that is likely to change in a couple of weeks regardless of short-term development. We are still way ahead on ACE as well versus climatological mean. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 27 minutes ago, Windspeed said: So far 2020 has been gangbusters. We're low on ACE considering number of named storms due to no majors or long-tracking storms with persistent hurricane intensity, but that is likely to change in a couple of weeks regardless of short-term development. We are still way ahead on ACE as well versus climatological mean. Meanwhile the Wpac, which has hit peak climo, had been completely quiet. It must be near record low at the moment. Does anyone know if the two basins often have an inverse correlation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 Updated tropical forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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