Floydbuster Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 I know the model is to be taken with an enormous grain of salt, but the long, long long range CFS model doesn't show any storms making U.S. landfall the entire hurricane season. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I know the model is to be taken with an enormous grain of salt, but the long, long long range CFS model doesn't show any storms making U.S. landfall the entire hurricane season. LOL That thing is total junk and worth less than toilet paper! Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 Does any long, long, long range model have any better skill? I'd be tempted to believe the CFS outlook simply because it is the only low ball forecast I've seen, everyone appears confident we'll have a well above average hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Convection has picked up on 99L over the last few hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 21, 2020 Author Share Posted July 21, 2020 Considering that ASCAT pass, if we get any sustainable convection over that center, we'll probably get a classification. Clearly there is a closed low. Perhaps it doesn't survive the potential hostile environment in a few days, but it may still get named. Interestingly, this feature might spell trouble with the Western Caribbean next week. The favorable coupled Kelvin may be timing just right off to extend east off of Central America by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 21, 2020 Author Share Posted July 21, 2020 Well then... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 99L looks like it’s on it’s way to becoming a depression. Very much improved convection overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 21, 2020 Author Share Posted July 21, 2020 Looks like a depression to me. Especially with that ASCAT pass last night confirming the closed low. All it needed was sustained convection and a bit more organization. Interesting how even a quiet stretch with most meh environmental conditions can still produce surprises. But 99L is an especially strong wave born out of a favorable environmental bubble thanks to the WAM and ITCZ boundary. Looks like if things continue, we'll get a NS. Questions remain if it can become anything substantial in the long term / Caribbean. It still has to deal with a lot of unfavorable possibilities. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Starting to see the reappearance of troughs off the east coast on the long range modeling. This has me wondering if we're going back to the cutoff ULL pattern over the east coast from a month ago. If so, then I'm gonna start getting really worried about potential east coast landfalls. Also, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 21, 2020 Author Share Posted July 21, 2020 New ASCAT. Vortex signature looks even better than last night. At this point, I'd be surprised TAFB didn't pull the trigger in the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 21, 2020 Author Share Posted July 21, 2020 Hey [mention=845]Windspeed[/mention] what if we’re actually starting to enter into a brief period of Atlantic/MDR activity? SAL is still there, but weaker and further north, and the wave train looks to continue as that big CCKW pushes through the basin over the next week. The EPS seems to like the next wave coming off Africa and maybe there’s a two week window here before the suppressive state rolls through the basin. Also, that area over Cuba is disorganized but the Gulf looks favorable this week if that wave can tighten. Well 10-14 days is when I thought things would kick up. The current surprise MDR system is just an example of how you can still get activity in a mediocre and typically unfavorable environment. Yes, the timing convectively-coupled Kelvin moving out of the EPAC into GOM/WCARIB next week could be critical to 99L (potential Gonzo), etc.; however, the middle-to-upper MDR is still quite hostile. 99L just got lucky with its very low latitude with TCG here. We'll see how it all plays out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 21, 2020 Author Share Posted July 21, 2020 I’ve been less bullish. I thought we wouldn’t really break through until mid August and you’re right, anything above like 11° N looks pretty bad lol. We may still have some bouts with a PV streamer, possible TUTT and some shear dependant on timing and positioning during the onset of an uptick in activity, aside from whatever 99L does here in the coming week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 21, 2020 Author Share Posted July 21, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 The Euro has been getting more aggressive with the wave behind 99L. That might be more interesting to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, cptcatz said: The Euro has been getting more aggressive with the wave behind 99L. That might be more interesting to watch. Yeah the CMC has the wave leaving Africa in 24-36 hrs becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean Sea in the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 21, 2020 Author Share Posted July 21, 2020 Invest91L has been designated. This has a decent chance of TCG in the central-to-NW GOM as conditions become more favorable. At this time there is still mid-to-upper level shear imparting over the western portion of the wave axis. But that should shift more easterly into the forecast period and allow some time for a potential low to stack. Not certain of any significant intensification but regardless, moisture fetch into very warm GOM SSTs could bring flash flooding rains into LA/Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Invest91L has been designated. This has a decent chance of TCG in the central-to-NW GOM as conditions become more favorable. At this time there is still mid-to-upper level shear imparting over the western portion of the wave axis. But that should shift more easterly into the forecast period and allow some time for a potential low to stack. Not certain of any significant intensification but regardless, moisture fetch into very warm GOM SSTs could bring flash flooding rains into LA/Texas. Matt, I'm assuming this would be "Hanna" because 99L is well on it's way to becoming named first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Many Euro ensembles bring that next wave to major hurricane status. And strangely the GFS isn't even showing it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 22, 2020 Author Share Posted July 22, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 The gulf system certainly has the appearance of a disturbance that is destined to become a tropical storm before moving into Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Interesting last frame of the 12z CMC. Gonzalo intact heading into Texas and the next wave intact heading towards the Bahamas/Florida. GFS still not developing that next wave at all. But CMC was the only model spot on developing Gonzalo so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 The EURO, CMC and some long-range models show the wave leaving Africa in the next 24 hrs become a significant hurricane and a potential ominous threat for the U.S. in 7-10 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 38 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: The EURO, CMC and some long-range models show the wave leaving Africa in the next 24 hrs become a significant hurricane and a potential ominous threat for the U.S. in 7-10 days. Obviously, it's a long way out, but this morning's Euro has a modest system traversing the Caribbean, then it begins to turn more nw and strengthen at the end of the period as the eastern US trough erodes the subtropical ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Here's the wave leaving African soon that the EURO shows as a Caribbean hurricane and the CMC shows as a Puerto Rico/Bahamas/US hurricane down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Euro has a strong cat 2 barreling towards the SE coast. 10 days out, but still... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 I heard the euro ensembles are crazy in regards to the tropics for the entire east coast. Anyone have an image ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 Don't trust those weaknesses the model keeps teasing as the system nears the Bahamas. It's been back and forth with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 24, 2020 Author Share Posted July 24, 2020 Interesting thread on MJO phase 1 and 2 inter-seasonal as it relates to Atlantic Basin hurricane seasons. Note 2020...lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 24, 2020 Author Share Posted July 24, 2020 The next AEW exiting the coast already had a large wave breaking sharp axis, but now with deep convection associated with a strong MCS embedded within its inverted surface trough. This is the wave the EPS and ECMWF op runs have been consistently developing the past few days into a formidable TC. I'd say based on appearance, that's looking ever more likely. It will still have some dry air established to its north in pockets across the subtropical Atlantic, but the easterly SAL burst is way out ahead of it and may not be as much a factor. Also, the moisture envelope with this wave is quite large. If TCG occurs in the MDR this weekend into early next week, this would be Isaias. The "I" storms are frequently in the historical record as being Cape Verde or deep MDR systems east of the Antilles, but generally well into September. Here we may very well experience an "I" storm in July of 2020, yet it will not break the mold. As the Euro would have it, our next TC might end up being a powerful long-tracking Cape Verde hurricane. Obviously, not to count chickens before they hatch as even if a very advanced AEW, it's still just a low-embedded wave that could flop and not get named. Nah, who am I kidding? This thing is a beast... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 I think we may have the "I" storm from this wave, and then after whatever it does (and it may do quite a bit in 7-10 days), we will then have a lull until mid-late August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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