Windspeed Posted July 15, 2020 Author Share Posted July 15, 2020 Is it just me, or is there a tremendous lack of upper level wind shear for July 15th? Vertical profiles for most of the Caribbean and MDR are on point right now for TC support, however, SAL in the mid-to-lower levels and sinking air is keeping things quiet in the short-term. This is an ominous sign for when more favorable 200 mb support and 900 to 500 hPa lift begins to creep in by August however. I do expect things to go active and ramp up in a hurry when they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 16, 2020 Author Share Posted July 16, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 16, 2020 Author Share Posted July 16, 2020 Current Atlantic oceanic heat potential compared to 2017, the last hyperactive season on record. Obviously heat potential and depth of 26ºC isotherm is only part of the equation. You need an anomalously favorable atmosphere and steering pattern. That being said, if the atmosphere over the Atlantic Basin does become more favorable in the coming weeks, the basin does look primed. July, 17th, 2017: Current: Now the question remains what atmospheric patterns will be in place for the last half of the Atlantic Hurricane season? 2017 had a relatively neutral ENSO but a positive AMO. NAO trended positive and IOD trended negative by September when all hell broke lose. Interestingly, a similar scenario may be unfolding by then but with an actual negative ENSO in place. We do not have a full blown negative ENSO yet, but it is trending that way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 17, 2020 Author Share Posted July 17, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 17, 2020 Author Share Posted July 17, 2020 An MCS moved SSE off of the ETX/LA coast into the NW GOM. It does have a weak MLC. This feature will turn SW, WSW and then W into the Central or Southern Texas coastline in about 36-48 hrs. So not a lot of time to develop; that being said, if convection persists and a low level vort can develop, there is potential for a TC to form prior to landfall. The upper pattern is favorable enough. At least something to keep an eye on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 Looks like it’s moving SSW to me in your image above, not SSE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 17, 2020 Author Share Posted July 17, 2020 Looks like it’s moving SSW to me in your image above, not SSE? It came off the lower 48 on a SSE track off the coast. Yes, you're correct, the feature is not moving SSE now. More S to SSW on a long bend into the southern periphery of building heights to the NW. It also needs to pulse up new convection relatively soon or the possibility of generating a LLC vort max will fade. The MCV may very well dissipate. At any rate, it was worth the mention. We've seen these little systems develop often enough after rolling off the lower 48 and SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 17, 2020 Author Share Posted July 17, 2020 Meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 Looks like development of next threat is about ~84 hrs out. At least that’s what GEFS/GFS is hinting at. Tropical wave passing through Florida strait/over southern Florida and into Gulf of Mexico—general track towards western Gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 We usually get a few duds or misfires before the action really begins. Think 2017 when we had Hurricane Franklin, a Cat 1 into Mexico, and then the fish-storm Hurricane Gert. Then it went off after the solar eclipse with Harvey, Irma, Jose, Katia, Lee, Maria, Nate and Ophelia. Literally a splooge of six major hurricanes, and two other nasty ones. Same was true in 2007. I don't know who remembers but we had a few strong African waves almost develop, but fizzle, only to moisten the future environment for Hurricane Dean's monster path through the Caribbean. Don't be surprised if we get a 90 mph hurricane or something by mid-August around the Caribbean/Gulf, then a Cat-1 or 2 fish storm off Africa before the powder keg is lit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 52 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro puts two waves in the Gulf in the next ten days. The beginning of the main show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 Not sure how reliable it is but the CMC gets pretty aggressive with that wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 Wow The waters are boiling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 34 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow The waters are boiling Gonna be epic lake effect this year with above average water temp in great lakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 So the GFS is now out to August 3 with no signs of development. When does that proverbial switch get turned on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m still thinking mid August. MDR will need some time to moisten in the mid to lower levels once the SAL diminishes. Yeah I think August 20th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 19, 2020 Author Share Posted July 19, 2020 RE: A potential switch is currently crossing the central into EPAC. A very intense convectively coupled Kelvin wave. This will be making its way over the Atlantic Basin in the 10-14~ day range. Surprisingly there are no signs of blossoming activity in mid-to-long range modeling yet, but that could easily change. Something to keep an eye on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 From what I understand, dry air is the main limiting factor right now in the MDR. Looks like it stays dry for the next couple weeks with a final blast of dry air around August 1 but behind that it looks like mostly moist air moving off of Africa. Am I reading this right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 Hrmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 7 hours ago, Windspeed said: Hrmm... Quiet for a few days then suddenly three lemons, that being one of them. NHC as of 0800 this morning: 2. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become a little better organized this morning. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. By Friday and over the weekend, conditions are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 On 7/17/2020 at 12:49 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Looks a little further out in time to me on the 12z op? End of next week development in the Gulf would make sense if the wave can thread the needle. MDR looks closed for now but the western Atlantic and Gulf are more favorable. Well about 72 hrs out from my post. NHC already assigned 10% chance to this wave...Still think this wave will be most interesting to watch this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 Invest 99L has my attention. Decent mid level rotation and not ridiculous amounts of shear. If it can overcome some dry air, especially to its north, and a relatively stable atmosphere, it may be our first shot at a MDR storm as it heads generally towards the windward islands. Has held its own despite unfavorable conditions thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: One of the problems with 99L is that another SAL burst may choke it off before it can do too much. Definitely worth watching as the western Atlantic is extraordinarily warm, especially the Caribbean. As an aside, wow at the MDR and Atlantic warming recently. Areas near the coast are toasty. It's a powder keg setup. Things are gonna pick up in a hurry in a few weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's a powder keg setup. Things are gonna pick up in a hurry in a few weeks. Bathtub water in all the places where it’s most dangerous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 I find it amusing we have three tropical lemons in late July over boiling waters that won't do anything, but in cold May north Atlantic waters, we'll get like 10 wasted named storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I find it amusing we have three tropical lemons in late July over boiling waters that won't do anything, but in cold May north Atlantic waters, we'll get like 10 wasted named storms. A lot of those early storms have mostly non-tropical origins which is why they never get really strong. I think the May/June early developments and late June through mid August lull will be a common occurrence going forward. Getting lemons right now in the tropics (MDR region) is good sign that things are becoming more favorable though. We'll probably see the real meat of the season start a couple weeks earlier this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: A lot of those early storms have mostly non-tropical origins which is why they never get really strong. I think the May/June early developments and late June through mid August lull will be a common occurrence going forward. Getting lemons right now in the tropics (MDR region) is good sign that things are becoming more favorable though. We'll probably see the real meat of the season start a couple weeks earlier this year. Absolutely, and they're moistening up the basin before the match gets dropped. I was just speaking of the irony. We have non-tropical systems in off-season in the North Atlantic that look better than some tropical systems in July. (Hurricane Barry 2019?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 AL90 in the NW GOM looks too sheared over the potential weak circulation due to strong southeasterly flow. It's not got a lot of time remaining over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now