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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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Looks like Honduras/Nicaragua are going to be under the gun this weekend again from tropical activity

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Eta, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and on 
newly formed Subtropical Storm Theta, located over the eastern 
Atlantic.

1. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  This wave is expected to 
move westward into more conducive environmental conditions, and a 
tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend when 
the wave reaches the central or western Caribbean Sea. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

 

two_atl_5d0.png

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The general rule for when hurricane season ends is when a cold front gets all the way to Puerto Rico. 

The crazy thing is we've had just one cold front here in Southeast Florida, and temperatures did not even drop below 70 F. This is highly unusual. Sometimes we'd get our first real cold front in mid-late September, almost always we get the first real cold front in October, this year it's now mid-November and we haven't had a real cold front. Further, no cold fronts at all expected for over a week. 

In-fact, I don't recall this ever happening in my life before. By now we should have had a few cold fronts and winter/dry season should be solidly underway. 

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4 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

The general rule for when hurricane season ends is when a cold front gets all the way to Puerto Rico. 

The crazy thing is we've had just one cold front here in Southeast Florida, and temperatures did not even drop below 70 F. This is highly unusual. Sometimes we'd get our first real cold front in mid-late September, almost always we get the first real cold front in October, this year it's now mid-November and we haven't had a real cold front. Further, no cold fronts at all expected for over a week. 

In-fact, I don't recall this ever happening in my life before. By now we should have had a few cold fronts and winter/dry season should be solidly underway. 

LOL, some people on another forum were insisting the Gulf coast was now safe from hurricanes for the rest of the season because some cold fronts had come through back in late September or so. We saw how that worked out.

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4 hours ago, turtlehurricane said:

The general rule for when hurricane season ends is when a cold front gets all the way to Puerto Rico. 

The crazy thing is we've had just one cold front here in Southeast Florida, and temperatures did not even drop below 70 F. This is highly unusual. Sometimes we'd get our first real cold front in mid-late September, almost always we get the first real cold front in October, this year it's now mid-November and we haven't had a real cold front. Further, no cold fronts at all expected for over a week. 

In-fact, I don't recall this ever happening in my life before. By now we should have had a few cold fronts and winter/dry season should be solidly underway. 

It's very unusual I'm up in PA and we've had 4 days where our record high temps have been completely smashed. It's been so warm this october and november that spring flower bulbs are coming back up again. It does look like we're going to see at least a few more systems this month and possibly even december. I mean 2005 did give us systems until early january...

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10 minutes ago, Amped said:

2005 was better by a long shot, it wasn't even close.

I really wish 2020 would just concede already, and congratulate 2005 on it's hard fought victory.  

You can't declare that until every last legal ACE number is counted.  There are still storms to be tallied and the NHC hasn't certified the totals yet. Plus I could see 2020 not conceding until we get the post-season analysis updates. This can be a long drawn out battle...

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Looks like #30 is coming soon... possibly this weekend 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Eta, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and on 
Tropical Storm Theta, located over the eastern Atlantic.

A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing 
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is 
expected to move slowly westward into more conducive environmental 
conditions over the next several days, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form late this week or this weekend when the wave reaches 
the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, 
this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible 
flash flooding to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of 
Hispaniola over the next couple of days. For more detailed 
information, refer to products issued by your local weather 
office. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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ACE is at 163 for the season. If 98L, possible future Iota develops into a hurricane in the Western Caribbean, that should get us to 170. A little bit of irony in that. Several preseason forecasts for a hyperactive season, including CSU/RAMSDIS had 170 ACE, including myself early in the thread. Thought it unwise to forecast higher as it takes a lot of luck and a number of long-tracking high end intense hurricanes. Of course this season being dominated by near-to-land rapid intensification and weaker TCs, it's still pretty phenomenal we made it to 170. Thank the late season burst of hurricanes for powering ACE upwards. I had actually revised my number down a lot back in early October to around 140. Definitely busted on that...lol.

 

 

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1 hour ago, TriPol said:

At what point do they stop naming Greek letters and start naming next year's storms?

There are fifteen letters left in the Greek Alphabet after “Iota” is used.  Theoretically, they would have to use up the entire Greek Alphabet, first.  Since there’s no way we’re getting another 16 “named” TC’s after soon to be “Iota”, we have plenty of names available.   

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