Prospero Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Hmmm, freezing rain and snow in Texas, a Hurricane hits New Orleans, Biloxi, and Gulfport (MS) and pounds the southeast US into Virginia, miserable hot and muggy in Florida. Can't wait to see what is next for 2020. Maybe we'll see snow in Florida a day or two after we get hit by the next TS? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 18Z GFS ...another Gulf Hurricane out in fantasyland time. What do we do when we run out of the Greek alphabet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: 18Z GFS ...another Gulf Hurricane out in fantasyland time. What do we do when we run out of the Greek alphabet? Upper case: Hurricane ! Hurricane @ Hurricane # So on... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: 18Z GFS ...another Gulf Hurricane out in fantasyland time. What do we do when we run out of the Greek alphabet? Next year I will keep a journal of every time Tampa Bay was in a future model. I lost count this year very long ago. I have even lost count in the past week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 8 year Sandy NJ landfall anniversary today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 30, 2020 Author Share Posted October 30, 2020 This persistent flare-up of deep convection has a clear linear band on the east side of the wave axis. That boundary is southerly. That needs to be closely watched as it would not take much for convergence to develop a low-level vortex. This is clearly going to close off a mid-level vortex within the tiny MCS even if temporary. TCG could happen way before initially expected which would open up a plethora of forecasting possibilities. This would immediately become a long-tracking TC through a favorable Caribbean with very high OHC. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 3 hours ago, Prospero said: miserable hot and muggy in Florida. No kidding. The heat is relentless this year. Next week looks to break the humidity which will be nice for me to go running outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 What are we going to see after post-season reanalysis? I could see at least 3 of these realistically happening Hanna upgrade to Cat 2 Marco downgraded to TS Nana downgraded to TS Paulette upgraded to Cat 3 Sally upgraded to Cat 3 Gamma upgraded to Cat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 So with 3 Atlantic majors in October-November for the first time in recorded history, and with more activity likely in the weeks ahead, does anyone still think this season is a "bust?" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 minute ago, cheese007 said: So with 3 Atlantic majors in October-November for the first time in recorded history, and with more activity likely in the weeks ahead, does anyone still think this season is a "bust?" Nope. These Greek cyclones have been a whole 'nother season in and of themselves (apart from Laura, Sally and Teddy). Trend of heavily west-loaded/close-to-land intensification holds with Eta, but it's finally producing the kind of jaw-dropping satellite porn I expected out of this season...in Sept./early Oct. Kinda annoying that the WPAC snuck in Goni first, though. In the end, forecasts of extreme activity in the Atlantic were spot-on, even though it didn't play out in quite the fashion most observers, experts and amateurs alike, anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 hour ago, cheese007 said: So with 3 Atlantic majors in October-November for the first time in recorded history, and with more activity likely in the weeks ahead, does anyone still think this season is a "bust?" Even though it's no 2005 or even 1933, this year is easily a top 5 season. Only those years and maybe 1995 edge 2020 out, and with Epsilon, Zeta, and now Eta, is ahead of 2017 for me personally. It could probably pass 1995 depending on how the next 10-15 days play out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 26 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: Even though it's no 2005 or even 1933, this year is easily a top 5 season. Only those years and maybe 1995 edge 2020 out, and with Epsilon, Zeta, and now Eta, is ahead of 2017 for me personally. It could probably pass 1995 depending on how the next 10-15 days play out Well sheesh I mean...what would it have to be to be akin to 2005 then? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Any bets we are here in December discussing an active 2020 hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Prospero said: Any bets we are here in December discussing an active 2020 hurricane? Wouldn't be surprised, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 There’s a lot of warm water in the Bahamas that’s untouched. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well sheesh I mean...what would it have to be to be akin to 2005 then? Lol Multiple Cat 5s, multiple sub 900 hurricanes, lowest pressure in an Atlantic hurricane on record, a cat 5 and high end cat 4 in july, and 4 landfalling majors in the US are the main reasons 2005 still reigns at the top in my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Quite a hurricane season, and I'd still watch the Western Caribbean the rest of this month for sure. Thus far, we've had 28 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. However, there is a high likelihood that Gamma was a hurricane at it's Yucatan landfall, and I wonder if Sally or Zeta reached Category 3 status. If all of that takes place posthumously, we could have 28/13/7. I think (similar to 2005 actually) we had a surprisingly lack of long-tracked Cape Verde activity. Laura began from a wave, but it developed later. Teddy was the only true long-tracked Cape Verde hurricane, although Paulette technically counts. I guess I just grew up in the 90s during the days of true long-trackers like Hurricane Georges. It looks like if nothing else hits the United States, we had six hurricane landfalls. Hanna, Isaias, Laura, Sally, Delta, Zeta. Remember though, at one point, Cristobal, Marco, and Beta were all expected to be hurricanes at landfall....so we could've had NINE hurricanes. I think the fact that five of the six were technically Category 1 or 2 does play a role, especially after 2017 had two Category 4 landfalls, and 2018 had a Category 5. Nevertheless, all five storms packed a punch and one was a rare near-Cat 5 Gulf Coast landfall. (Another thing I remember growing up was how much storms usually weakened on approach to the Gulf Coast in the 1990s/2000s). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 6, 2020 Author Share Posted November 6, 2020 Heh... MJO phases in late Nov.- early Dec. looking highly supportive for a interesting close and even prolonged potential Caribbean activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 So... 2 more upcoming? One in the Eastern Caribbean and another out in the NE Atlantic toward the Azores? Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Eta, located near Florida Bay. Shower activity associated with a non-tropical low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores is showing some signs of organization. This system will likely gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics this week, and a tropical or subtropical storm could develop within a few days while this system moves eastward or east-northeastward over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medum...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to move over the central Caribbean Sea, where an area of low pressure could form in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && Additional information on the central Atlanic low pressure area can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 11/9 looking more like a mid-season tropical outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 9, 2020 Author Share Posted November 9, 2020 11/9 looking more like a mid-season tropical outlookInvest 97L looks close to getting named. The bottom half of the surface circulation looks to be contracting, aligning under the robust mid-level circulation and convection. This looks like an STC now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Yeah 97L probably gets named today. Gotta watch the Caribbean again too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 On 9/28/2020 at 11:59 AM, ldub23 said: Looks like we have indeed ended the season very early. Frame this and put it in the "Weather Forum Posts That Aged Horribly" Hall of Fame right alongside the one he made about September 2017 being quiet. Speaking of ldub, he hasn't popped into this thread in awhile... 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Frame this and put it in the "Weather Forum Posts That Aged Horribly" Hall of Fame right alongside the one he made about September 2017 being quiet. Speaking of ldub, he hasn't popped into this thread in awhile...Yeah he got pwned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Bhs1975 said: Yeah he got pwned. There should be a pinned thread at the end of the year and awards given out for posts that aged the worst. Some of the ones from August complaining that the long range GFS not showing development meant 2020 was going to be a dud of a tropical season belong there as well 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A777 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 38 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: There should be a pinned thread at the end of the year and awards given out for posts that aged the worst. Some of the ones from August complaining that the long range GFS not showing development meant 2020 was going to be a dud of a tropical season belong there as well Not tropical related, but I'd imagine that some of the posts from 3/28 and 4/12 aged horribly too.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 4 hours ago, A777 said: Not tropical related, but I'd imagine that some of the posts from 3/28 and 4/12 aged horribly too.. What happened on those days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 9, 2020 Author Share Posted November 9, 2020 What happened on those days?Severe weather outbreaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 6 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: There should be a pinned thread at the end of the year and awards given out for posts that aged the worst. Some of the ones from August complaining that the long range GFS not showing development meant 2020 was going to be a dud of a tropical season belong there as well Let him who is without mistakes lead the posting. We learn a whole lot more from the edge forecasts, as long as they are well articulated, not just plopped on the boards. If they fail miserably, we can learn what was mistaken. By contrast, we don't learn much from a sort of OK forecast, even if it seems closer to what actually happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 47 minutes ago, etudiant said: Let him who is without mistakes lead the posting. We learn a whole lot more from the edge forecasts, as long as they are well articulated, not just plopped on the boards. If they fail miserably, we can learn what was mistaken. By contrast, we don't learn much from a sort of OK forecast, even if it seems closer to what actually happened. I mean, it's one thing to make a legitimate attempt to forecast and bust, it's another thing to repeatedly make blanket statements based on the fantasy range of the deterministic GFS runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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