Maxwell03 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Can't believe this dumpster fire season has a very decent shot of dethroning 2005 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 5 hours ago, Windspeed said: May have some fireworks in the Caribbean in early November. That's a lot of supportive 200 hPa divergence and lift incoming thanks to a very convectively supportive MJ phase. We may have a strong close to the season. The GFS, GFS-P, and now the EPS are on board with this. Could be two more storms brewing around November 5-7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 On 10/21/2020 at 9:27 PM, cptcatz said: The GFS had not been doing the fantasy storm thing at all this season up until last week. In fact, it was having a really hard time picking up any storms in the long range that actually ended up forming. I wouldn't count out the first week of November yet. I thought I remember lots of fantasy storms early this season. Maybe I'm confusing with last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 9 hours ago, TradeWinds said: I thought I remember lots of fantasy storms early this season. Maybe I'm confusing with last year. I remember most GFS runs through the summer being "no tropical development through 384 hours yet again" even while all those sloppy tropical storms kept popping up. That being said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Still monitoring 26th-27th ne of the Bahamas to near Bermuda for something subtropical or tropical-small, and not necessarily long lived. NHC not showing anything of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 CMC and GFS are both agreeing on significant development in the Caribbean less than 10 days out now. EPS was also showing it so it'll be interesting to see if the Euro picks up on it this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 @Prospero for you to frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 12z gfs para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 12z gfs para Wouldn't this go in the other thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 All aboard! 12z suite of Euro, GFS, GFS-P, and CMC 240 hours out. Is this the best long range model agreement we've seen all season? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 4 hours ago, TradeWinds said: @Prospero for you to frame. It is certainly not the first time Tampa Bay has been in a long-rage future model this year. In fact, I've lost count how many times. I suspect if this develops it will land in western LA. Still something to watch. It's been a warm muggy day here today. October has been very warm this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 CMC starting to kick off something in the Carribean Saturday. GFS takes almost another 72hrs to get it going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A777 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Hour 306 GFS brings out the dreaded F word... On a more serious note, the last few GFS runs have been pretty consistent with something developing in the Southern Caribbean in 7-10 days, and SSTs are still 28-30C there... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Hour 384 of the GFS-P. Is that four tropical/subtropical storms on November 11? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Sitting here in Gulfport, Florida right now we are enjoying a very warm (frog strangler) strong thunderstorm that came in from the south in very late October. Usually this time of year it is dry as a bone and the only rain we might be lucky to get is from cold fronts that come through from the north. It has been muggy as heck this week, even taking showers outside to cool off as it has been so hot. Not a typical year at all, but it IS 2020... What will the next few weeks bring?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Hour 384 of the GFS-P. Is that four tropical/subtropical storms on November 11? It's 2020 so anything is possible! Heck we might see a Cat 5 hurricane in November lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 19 minutes ago, brentrich said: It's 2020 so anything is possible! Heck we might see a Cat 5 hurricane in November lol And one that's moving east through the MDR (that 932 mb storm is moving east through the Caribbean on that run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A777 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Don't be too harsh on the GFS-P... it just wants to see what happens when we run out of letters in the Greek Alphabet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 The Atlantic Basin has now surpassed 140.9 (96.9 climatological average for date) for the season. 150 is generally considered the benchmark for a hyperactive season. Obviously we're there based on number of storms but passing that mark also quantifies the ACE metric as well. If there ends up being another strong Caribbean hurricane as has been suggested off and on by modeling in the coming week, we'll likely eclipse that mark now. Either way it has been a very busy, even exhausting year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 On 10/26/2020 at 9:19 PM, brentrich said: It's 2020 so anything is possible! Heck we might see a Cat 5 hurricane in November lol in 2005 we had 3 storms from late november into january so anything is possible..but not a cat 5 lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Model trends the past couple days now have been the Caribbean storm going straight into Honduras/Nicaragua, similar to a Mitch track, which made landfall in Honduras 22 years ago tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 Most recent outlook from the NHC... A large area of disturbed weather moving from the tropical Atlantic across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea is associated with a pair of tropical waves. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for development of this disturbance during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 ECMWF, CMC GFS are in good agreement on a TS south of Jamaica at 72hrs. It drifts southwest into central America on all models but takes varying amounts of time. It doesn't have time to deepen into a major Hurricane on any model however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 The latest Euro has even more development in the nw Caribbean after Eta moves into Central America. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Every six hours various models dance different scenarios around with future development in the Caribbean and GOM. This being 2020, and enduring yet another hot muggy day on October 29 here in Florida, I tend to think we may not be done for the year. We still have healthy green leaves and fresh blooms on our Frangipani in our backyard that never has leaves past mid-September! Strange year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 430k outages in NC right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 New invest does have some disorganized but building convection along the wave axis. It's not much for now but this does seem to have potential over the weekend in the central Caribbean. It's moving slow enough that strong enough consolidated convection could fold or close off a surface vortex. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 @Windspeed Tri-Cities, TN/VA Any Zeta effects up there? Was in Blacksburg just a week ago and had dinner with my Uncle and Aunt who live in Kingsport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 [mention=845]Windspeed[/mention] Tri-Cities, TN/VA Any Zeta effects up there? Was in Blacksburg just a week ago and had dinner with my Uncle and Aunt who live in Kingsport.Streams are up but nothing too major. Upper NE TN/SW VA faired pretty well. All the high wind remained east of the Blue Ridge or ridges and peaks above 3600 ft. Generally the stronger stuff clipped Chattanooga but shot east through the Carolinas to SE VA. As for rain, here's a clip of the West Prong of the Little Pigeon from Gatlinburg, TN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 17 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Streams are up but nothing too major. Upper NE TN/SW VA faired pretty well. All the high wind remained east of the Blue Ridge or ridges and peaks above 3600 ft. Generally the stronger stuff clipped Chattanooga but shot east through the Carolinas to SE VA. As for rain, here's a clip of the West Prong of the Little Pigeon from Gatlinburg, TN. That is crazy for this time of year! In the Spring with a warm wet storm and a major snow melt, creeks and rivers often flood in them mountains. Then it's time to white water raft if not too dangerous (New River in WV comes to mind). LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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