wdrag Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Zeta: ??? Good Wednesday morning all w interest between FL-Bermuda 25th-27th. I saw the NHC dropped tropical potential overnight but 00z-06z/21 operational modeling suggests (multi models) that a shallow warm core tropical circulation will develop by the 25th vicinity-Cuba- east coast FL and head northeast or east-northeast. It probably won't be too deep vertically but I'm expecting something that may need to be named a small TS between the 25th-27th. I can easily be wrong, so no promises. I will admit I'm wrong as soon as modeling gives it up (again). 655A/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 17 minutes ago, VortAmplifier said: Zeta ? Or more than this extended long range... Noticed that as well, but beyond 240 hours... I cant be very confident... but yes, GEFS has some members trying for a tropical event. For now, I want to be sure the 00z/21 models and tropical phase diagrams are wrong about the Bahamas vicinity event of the 25th-26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 I've added this as NEW on the 06z/GEFS500MB run...notice several members closed circulation down near FL. There we zero members like this on the 00z/21 cycle. We'll see if the trend continues. I can't expand any further on this potential until this evening, at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 On 8/11/2020 at 5:59 PM, Amped said: I'm never impressed with lots of low quality struggling Tropical Storms. I don't see anything on models in the next 15 days that looks exciting. Here are some examples of 60 day stretches in the Atlantic that produced at least 4 major hurricanes. I will consider the upcoming hyped "Active Period" in the Atlantic a bust if it can't do it. 7 of the past 25 years have. AUG-SEPT 1995 4 Major hurricanes AUG-SEPT 1996 4 Major hurricanes AUG-SEPT 1999 4 Major Hurricanes AUG-SEPT 2004 6 Major Hurricanes SEPT-OCT 2005 4 Major Hurricanes AUG-SEPT 2010 5 Major Hurricanes AUG-SEPT 2017 5 Major Hurricanes 2020 can be added to the list now, Aug-26th - Oct21st Laura, Teddy, Delta , Epsilon. A very good season, but the alphabet record was padded with namewaster storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallis Rockwell Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 2 hours ago, Amped said: 2020 can be added to the list now, Aug-26th - Oct21st Laura, Teddy, Delta , Epsilon. A very good season, but the alphabet record was padded with namewaster storms. Solid B+ season. Good landfalls with some variety and plenty of impacted areas but full of junk storms. No Irma or Dorian this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Still some warm water... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 40 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said: Solid B+ season. Good landfalls with some variety and plenty of impacted areas but full of junk storms. No Irma or Dorian this year. This is accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: This is accurate Might be one of the most interesting years I remember. Started early, almost always a storm to follow, plenty of potential Cat 5s, a stream of hype and disappointment, yet entertaining and still something to watch even tonight. Some years are total duds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 22, 2020 Author Share Posted October 22, 2020 Don't throw in the towel just yet. Lingering boundaries into the Caribbean could still lead to a strong hurricane even in November. Though I don't expect the Atlantic to produce a Cat 5, we could certainly see another major, even a landfalling one before the door is slammed shut on 2020. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 This year underachieved. That’s what I hate about it. It could have been so much better. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: This year underachieved. That’s what I hate about it. It could have been so much better. It could have been better for Louisiana, but could have been worse for west central Florida. It's not Thanksgiving yet, so still not 100% confident. But it is looking like we were spared another year so far. But, this is the year 2020... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 I know the GFS just punked us with the storm that should have been forming right now in the Caribbean, but it's also pointing to another strong possibility the first week of November. One last trick up its sleeve? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, cptcatz said: I know the GFS just punked us with the storm that should have been forming right now in the Caribbean, but it's also pointing to another strong possibility the first week of November. One last trick up its sleeve? It always has a storm > 300 hrs. I had patio work done in Aug and kept a lot of things inside. I'm putting them all back outside this weekend. Door is shut IMHO for CONUS landfall. I believe I read 5 landfalls in Nov since 1850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 33 minutes ago, TradeWinds said: It always has a storm > 300 hrs. I had patio work done in Aug and kept a lot of things inside. I'm putting them all back outside this weekend. Door is shut IMHO for CONUS landfall. I believe I read 5 landfalls in Nov since 1850. The GFS had not been doing the fantasy storm thing at all this season up until last week. In fact, it was having a really hard time picking up any storms in the long range that actually ended up forming. I wouldn't count out the first week of November yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 Could go up to 5 or 6 majors if reanalysis says Paulette or Sally reached minimal Cat 3 strength 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 1 hour ago, TradeWinds said: It always has a storm > 300 hrs. I had patio work done in Aug and kept a lot of things inside. I'm putting them all back outside this weekend. Door is shut IMHO for CONUS landfall. I believe I read 5 landfalls in Nov since 1850. Are you forgetting what year this is? Would not put it past 2020 AT ALL, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 Zeta: ? My guess this has a 30-50% chance of forming... still warm sst. Minor (marghginal TS) event somewhere e coast Fl newd to near or west of Bermuda. Here's a modeling image. Several operational models show tight shallow warm core. Includes UK, RGEM, GGEM GFS, ICON, NAEFS implied (no JMA/EC). My guess it's a junk storm as some might call it, except if you're in it's marine path. Am monitoring models... definitely not what the GFS was calling for 10 days ago but something can yet emerge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 9 hours ago, Intensewind002 said: Could go up to 5 or 6 majors if reanalysis says Paulette or Sally reached minimal Cat 3 strength It would not surprise me at all if sally was upgraded due to the large amount of damage to use as evidence. Plenty to judge max wind speeds with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 38 minutes ago, wdrag said: Zeta: ? My guess this has a 30-50% chance of forming... still warm sst. Minor (marghginal TS) event somewhere e coast Fl newd to near or west of Bermuda. Here's a modeling image. Several operational models show tight shallow warm core. Includes UK, RGEM, GGEM GFS, ICON, NAEFS implied (no JMA/EC). My guess it's a junk storm as some might call it, except if you're in it's marine path. Am monitoring models... definitely not what the GFS was calling for 10 days ago but something can yet emerge. Although the GFS misforcasted the development of the system while in the Caribbean, it got the track and timing pretty dead on 10 days out. That being said, it's still showing an outbreak in the Caribbean the first week of November. GFS-P is hinting at two storms, with yesterday's 18z run having one Wilma track through Florida and the other one dropping to 935 mb south of Cuba... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 22, 2020 Author Share Posted October 22, 2020 The Atlantic Basin has crossed 130 ACE for the season.http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic What is clearly phenomenal isn't necessarily the ACE the Atlantic has produced, which is below what I had expected, but the deadness of the WPAC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 How many hours of good hurricane have we had this season? My guess is less than 100, with epsilon being 24 of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 11 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: How many hours of good hurricane have we had this season? My guess is less than 100, with epsilon being 24 of that. Feels like a day of Laura, a day of Sally, a day of Delta, a few hours of Hanna, and maybe an hour of Isaias. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 4 hours ago, Windspeed said: The Atlantic Basin has crossed 130 ACE for the season. http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic What is clearly phenomenal isn't necessarily the ACE the Atlantic has produced, which is below what I had expected, but the deadness of the WPAC. Also that the WPAC, apparently out of spite, supposedly caused some of the Atlantic systems' struggles by Typhoon Maysak contributing to the formation of a TUTT in the Atlantic in September which reduced the intensity/longevity of some of the MDR systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Epsilon, located over the west-central Atlantic about 200 miles east of Bermuda. 1. A broad trough of low pressure, located over the western Caribbean Sea, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms mainly east of the trough. Surface observations, satellite-derived surface wind data, and radar data indicate that a low pressure system has developed along the trough axis just south of Grand Cayman Island. Some gradual development of the low is possible during the next few days while it moves northwestward to northward across western or central Cuba on Saturday, then turning northward to northeastward across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, Straits of Florida, and the central Bahamas on Sunday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Zeta: later than sooner? Less clear to me on Bahamas tropical event per perusal 00z/23 multi model guidance. Invest has occurred and some intensity guidance goes for a TS but not many models and the TC Phase diagram is less likely, initially ~25th. Some guidance waits til the 27th in GMEX, and as per prior posts by others, the first week of Nov. I will say the NAEFS has something going northeast past Bermuda and i can see it vaguely in GFS/EC PWAT guidance for the 25th-26th FL east coast, east northeast or northeast from there. Many words not offering confidence on when-how-where Zeta evolves. Relying on NHC products. Have a good day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 95L now at 50/60% odds and is looking nice and juicy in the Caribbean this morning. Maybe a depression by tonight? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 95L will be impacting the CONUS given this look. Florida to the Northern Gulf Coast, biggest risk. The latter, a persistence forecast, more likely imo. This should also be a TC system throughout—-not expecting evolution as a STC, given synoptically there will be a robust STJ connection due to shortwave trough over south central US driving warm, moist air over the w Caribbean/GOM/SE US during the period concerned... Dry air, an issue most of this season, unlikely to be a problem this time.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 23, 2020 Author Share Posted October 23, 2020 95L now at 50/60% odds and is looking nice and juicy in the Caribbean this morning. Maybe a depression by tonight?Definitely getting interesting. Small surface trough under a ridge. We'll see if strong convection can close off something at the surface. Atmospheric conditions are favorable. Very moist airmass. Good convergence at the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 I almost wonder if the season either coughs suspicious features or we end up with designations quite late... The frequency of DJF, 'is it last season or the new season,' type occurrences has increased since 2000, globally ... I am unaware of any research into causality but I wonder - could the expanding HC have something to do with this ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 23, 2020 Author Share Posted October 23, 2020 May have some fireworks in the Caribbean in early November. That's a lot of supportive 200 hPa divergence and lift incoming thanks to a very convectively supportive MJ phase. We may have a strong close to the season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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