the ghost of leroy Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallis Rockwell Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 14 hours ago, the ghost of leroy said: This event will go down as one of the most under looked and underrated convective events in severe weather history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Tallis Rockwell said: This event will go down as one of the most under looked and underrated convective events in severe weather history. I can believe it...I guess if it weren't for all the other 2020 chaos going on, it may have gotten more notice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Yay another weak STD/STS coming soon SE of Bermuda... looks like it will park itself there for a while and not do much Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low pressure system located about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda have not become significantly better organized over the past several hours. Gradual development is expected, and a subtropical depression or storm is very likely to form during the next day or two while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Looks like GFS wants to drop the Caribbean storm. Oof what a bust. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: Looks like GFS wants to drop the Caribbean storm. Oof what a bust. And Euro also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: And Euro also Well Euro never had it in the first place. It was the last week of GFS runs that got anticipation pumping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 23 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Well Euro never had it in the first place. It was the last week of GFS runs that got anticipation pumping. We all got duped because the GFS kept showing it run after run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We all got duped because the GFS kept showing it run after run. Perhaps they are practicing for the cold season. As always ...... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Am not giving up on Caribbean Sea development around the 25th--- possibly now delayed 3-4 days for what appears to be a large named storm near Bermuda developing this coming week ahead. Water temp anomaly continues weakly positive in the Caribbean genesis area and northward the se USA coast. Last weeks GFS modeling for that that storm has trended null for that date, but my feeling based on fewer but still strong GEFS 500 MB members, is that something is going to get going there between the 25th-28th. Magnitude unknown and maybe just minor. In the meantime: Bermuda- soon to be named Epsilon, seems to be gaining support for a significant ocean storm in the Atlantic vicinity just E and N of Bermuda. Interaction with the Atlantic ridge seems to be forcing a little more w-nw displacement since we looked 24 hours ago, too far off the coast for direct E coast impact, but swells of 5- 6 feet will probably be (typo corrected 1227P) arriving LI s coast by 23rd-24th. This per 00z-06z weaker GFS-GEFS model guidance suggestions, from the still seemingly conservative GFS. WH near Bermuda should be exceeding 12 feet by the 23rd (graphic attached). I have checked Tropical Cyclone Phase (Robert Hart's page) on a number of models excluding the EC... it's modeled warm core. First I need to know we have a named storm and then monitor ridge adjustment to the north of it's eventual nnw-ne recurve. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Hi! Adding this 12z/18 intensity forecast graphic. Based solely on this, my guess is Epsilon would be named by 00z/Tue -20th. ?? I should be corrected if others see it different. The only reason to post this intensity forecast is to show a general uptick in the intensity forecast from that which was posted a couple of days ago, and that some of the models swap intensity forecasts. I presume others are seeing the return of the Caribbean potential in 12z/18 multi models (excluding the UK/EC which have not posted as of this note). It is still e of FL with an unknown magnitude/track but I think worthy of monitoring. 123P/18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 9:55 AM, the ghost of leroy said: Something something quantity over quality that said, the derecho is 1000% a worthy opponent. Damage around here wasn’t quite cat 4 level like some media outlets would like to claim but more equivalent to a 90-100kt storm perhaps; in an area that does not have resilience for those kinds of winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 It's not a "media claim." It's based on a 126 MPH measurement at Atkins and a 140 MPH estimate by DVN survey in Cedar Rapids. Granted those are gusts, but you don't really see sustained winds of that magnitude on land in any but perhaps the very strongest hurricanes (think Irma in the Leewards, Dorian in the Bahamas). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: It's not a "media claim." It's based on a 126 MPH measurement at Atkins and a 140 MPH estimate by DVN survey in Cedar Rapids. Granted those are gusts, but you don't really see sustained winds of that magnitude on land in any but perhaps the very strongest hurricanes (think Irma in the Leewards, Dorian in the Bahamas). To kind of nitpick, the Leewards and the Bahamas are islands that yes, did experience major hurricanes but they're islands that don't have "inland" areas comparable to the Plains of the US. You're point remains the same though. Big SUSTAINED winds don't really happen inland, anywhere at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Epsilon (eventual): Should be sizable TC...pretty impressive looking 'potential'...still a slight westward displacement in eventual track from 24 hours previous but too far east of the E coast. Swells of 7 feet or higher seem plausible to LI by Friday with much bigger impact on marine seas near Bermuda. Intensity forecasts continue to increase-06z/19 attached. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 27 started by NHC this morning. TC phase for at least two days has been very good on predicting immediate warm core and the intensity to ~TS sometime today. Intensity guidance has been ramping up. Presume the eventual Epsilon should get down to the the 950s or 960sMB by ~late Friday's beginning of recurvature to the ne. UK operationals I think so far are the most intense. Going to be a bit rougher on the ocean along the east coast by the end of the week due to long period easterly and eventual southeasterly swells. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 The GFS blew chunks with both storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 EPSILON is now named. 11A EDT/19. NHC taking it to 80kt for now. We'll see what happens. There are now probs for 30 ft seas near the center by Fri-Sat and a very high probability for an extensive area of 12 ft seas well to the west and north of center. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, Amped said: The GFS blew chunks with both storms Yeah. Given seasonal indicators/ENSO state and SSTs/OHC in the vicinity I thought GFS/GEFS were on point with a hurricane, potentially a Mitch/Wilma-like beast coming out of the Caribbean. Now...not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, CheeselandSkies said: Yeah. Given seasonal indicators/ENSO state and SSTs/OHC in the vicinity I thought GFS/GEFS were on point with a hurricane, potentially a Wilma-like beast coming out of the Caribbean. Now...not so much. Yeah it's a little perplexing. GFS was also too weak with Episilon, and had trouble handling the phase. It was it splitting it into 2 lows for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 38 minutes ago, Amped said: Yeah it's a little perplexing. GFS was also too weak with Episilon, and had trouble handling the phase. It was it splitting it into 2 lows for a while. Unless the models are once again struggling which they have all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Any guess on now many more storms we get this season? Two more would tie 2005 (one unnamed storm was added post-season in 2005). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 As for what prevented the Caribbean storm from forming, Looks like it was the stupid 500mb low over Florida. It appears at around the same time the GFS lost the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 What a bust. On to the next one! Long range GFS/GFS-P showing another Caribbean possibility around November 1... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Nice convective blow up occurring over the center of Epsilon right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 GEFS ensembles are still showing a solid signal of something coming out of the Caribbean later this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 2020 just keeps on going... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 Gfs now brings back the low in the gulf but the trough doesn't pick it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Epsilon, located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. 1. A trough of low pressure, extending from the Yucatan Channel southeastward into the southwestern Caribbean Sea, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the western Caribbean Sea. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable during the next several days and therefore development of this system is not anticipated as it drifts westward during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. Forecaster Roberts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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