cptcatz Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Alright guys let's get back to discussing our possible mega storm 10-15 days out. 06Z GFS-P still showing this monster skirting the east coast. I think a takeaway from these models is the size of this storm. A small shift in track can mean impacts to large areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Possible Florida impact aside, it's hard to ignore the persistence of the GFS showing an enormous storm off the East coast. Could be interesting days ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: Alright guys let's get back to discussing our possible mega storm 10-15 days out. 06Z GFS-P still showing this monster skirting the east coast. I think a takeaway from these models is the size of this storm. A small shift in track can mean impacts to large areas. It doesn't skirt the east coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Dont know where to put this so it goes here. Papin is now an NHC forecaster. Good for him 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 2020 may still have a run at seeing a cat 5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Meteorologically, this would be quite a sight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, hlcater said: Dont know where to put this so it goes here. Papin is now an NHC forecaster. Good for him Good for Phil. He has been destined for that job for a decade now and it’s nice to know that in some governmental offices merit is still a thing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 The 12z GFS run is almost exactly the same as Wilma. This could be setting up for quite a season finale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Thanks for the reminder that I am due a cool down. Might actually have some days in the 80s finally as flow amplifies and we get troughing in the west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 51 minutes ago, MJO812 said: GPS is showing the opposite, deep cold pocket in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Gotta hand it to the GFS if this system develops in the western Caribbean, it’s been showing it in long range, now medium range for endless runs now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Gotta hand it to the GFS if this system develops in the western Caribbean, it’s been showing it in long range, now medium range for endless runs now And at the same time if it doesn't develop that would be a massive fail for the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Good Wednesday morning... It's now 4 days since the GEFS was signaling two new TC's in the 17th-26. CAVEAT: I'm NOT-NOT A TROPICAL EXPERT. All i do is read the models-ensembles-trends, realize pattern recognition generally adds value and then use all the experts surrounding us (Including here and other forums) and go from there. I also try to account for the possibility of modeling expectations to fail---i.e. NO storms. That said... Whether a TC-hybrid comes up the E coast ???? timing timing timing with the primary trough reforming eastern USA next 2 weeks. What I'm 80-90% confident of is one, probably two Tropical Cyclones in the week of the 19th-26th in the tropical Atlantic (Epsilon, and Zeta). This was first developing as an option on the GEFS ~ Oct 10th 00z-06z cycle. The GGEM is now grabbing onto the first s of Bermuda around the 20th. The EC has something too, and in the operational cycle brings it nw to the se USA coast by the 24th. However the 00z/14 EC ensembles progress west and then have a difficult time figuring out two storms (one heading west toward FL, the other moving north from s of CUBA). The GEFS continues strong on the second storm and tracking uncertain. SST continue above normal near the FL coast (below normal near Bermuda and w GMEX due to prior storms upwelling). 00z/14 NAEFS has some idea but undefined right now... My "guess" is in a day or two, NHC TWO will latch onto the first disturbance heading w toward the region s of Bermuda- the latter TC disturbance may not be defined for another 5 days---? Experts should comment here on MJO favorability for the tropical 19th-26th?? (I'm also not an expert on the MJO impacts) I've submitted this for critique on the tropical forum looking for some contrary expertise. My take for my own use: If I had a choice--I'm not taking a cruise between Bermuda and Key West between the 19th-26th. I don't need to deal with the pitch and roll of a rough sea. (Did that on FAMFLOAT with the NWS back in the early 90s and it wasn't a TC--just a winter storm). 1115A/14 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Models are starting to put more emphasis on a slop-gyre passing east-west to the south of Bermuda in the extended. Even the GFS is now showing that sloppiness stretching out the nw Caribbean energy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 My take: something develops in the central Caribbean in about 5-7 days, strength unknown, with a very good chance it goes east of FL and the rest of the US coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 13 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: My take: something develops in the central Caribbean in about 5-7 days, strength unknown, with a very good chance it goes east of FL and the rest of the US coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Cheeznado said: My take: something develops in the central Caribbean in about 5-7 days, strength unknown, with a very good chance it goes east of FL and the rest of the US coast. Climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Climo Speaking of which, the next couple years are going to be a dumpster fire as everyone forgets what climo is and expect major us landfalls all the time, when what we will get is fish fish fish 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Euro cooking up something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Southeast hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Euro showing a storm coming out of the central Atlantic but not the Caribbean storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Just now, cptcatz said: Euro showing a storm coming out of the central Atlantic but not the Caribbean storm? Yeah some PVS induced LP I wouldn't put any stock in that solution right now. GFS solution is more realistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Models keep trending further south and stronger with whatever subtropical mess forms south of Bermuda. This is not a good trend if you are rooting for a strong TC. It will disrupt anything that tries to form in the Caribbean by pulling it north before it has a chance to organize. It is also in a high shear environment so it has little chance of become a strong TC itself. Still plenty of time for this to change though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 8PM NHC post tonight... 00z/15 issuance. All very low probs so I'll defer to the eventual reality... something potentially to look at between the 19th-27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 The last two GFS-P runs are quite interesting. Both runs take a strong hurricane into the Florida straits and does a zigzag/loop near Cuba/Florida keys with multiple impacts in the same areas. Any chance this can actually happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 Pretty strong agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, cptcatz said: The last two GFS-P runs are quite interesting. Both runs take a strong hurricane into the Florida straits and does a zigzag/loop near Cuba/Florida keys with multiple impacts in the same areas. Any chance this can actually happen? Its the GFS.. rhetorical question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: Its the GFS.. rhetorical question? I mean from a meteorological standpoint. These two runs might be the craziest path I've ever seen a model show a hurricane take. Is it actually possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 Just now, cptcatz said: I mean from a meteorological standpoint. These two runs might be the craziest path I've ever seen a model show a hurricane take. Is it actually possible? Of course it's possible. TCs have done all sorts of insane things - stalls, loops, zigs, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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