2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Maestrobjwa]

17 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

I still think we could see a November hurricane. By that time, realistically we could be on Hurricane Eta.

Given this is 2020...we oughta fully expect something like that, lol

[Windspeed]

[Windspeed]

Both the 12z GFS and the GFS Para have a system developing in the west-central Caribbean and hitting Cuba. The GFS has a weaker / minimal 'cane getting captured by the trough and heading OTS after Cuba and Bahamas. The Para allows it to get left behind and produces a major into the Bahamas heading north. Long-range, obviously, but something to model watch in the coming week. The ECMWF ensembles are not really capturing much yet due to beyond mid-range. We'll see where things stand modeling wise 3-4 days from now.

[Amped]

The Euro and CMC show much stronger blocking day 10 over Greenland than the GFS. Reminds me a little  another setup where a storm came out of the central Caribbean and ran into a strong blocking pattern.   I wont name the storm, but the Euro nailed it.  I'm surprised DT hasn't issued a "Ruh Oh Shaggy" yet.

 

 

 

[CheeselandSkies]

...is it S****?

[cptcatz]

18z GFS continues with the gigantic storm, this run a bad scenario for Miami metro

[Maestrobjwa]

37 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

18z GFS continues with the gigantic storm, this run a bad scenario for Miami metro

A track often modeled, but only verified what...3-4 times in history? Lol But this is 2020!

[cptcatz]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

A track often modeled, only verified what...3-4 times in history? Lol But this is 2020!

2020 going out with a bang laughing at all those people who say Florida has force field?

[Maestrobjwa]

14 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

2020 going out with a bang laughing at all those people who say Florida has force field?

Yep...would not put it past this year, lol

[Prospero]

Hmmm, 13 days out. Wonder how our toilet paper supply is...

[Derecho!]

11 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

A track often modeled, but only verified what...3-4 times in history? Lol But this is 2020!

I suspect over a period of thousands of years this is a very common track, it had just been rare very recently.

[CheeselandSkies]

Anyone else see the 06Z GEFS and GFS op?

(at work so can't post it, but suffice to say it was...eyebrow raising)

[cptcatz]

8 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Anyone else see the 06Z GEFS and GFS op?

(at work so can't post it, but suffice to say it was...eyebrow raising)

The GFS 06z run was just posted above by Prospero.  Could be a Wilma part 2 exactly 15 years later to the day.  (Wilma struck Florida on October 24)

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

The GFS 06z run was just posted above by Prospero.  Could be a Wilma part 2 exactly 15 years later to the day.  (Wilma struck Florida on October 24)

I was about to say... that’s one of the most Wilma-like runs we’ve had since... Wilma. Think the moral of the story is there is an increasing signal for development in the place you’d expect it this time of year. I didn’t think 2020 would let the season end without a bang! Ensembles have been holding onto the idea of development in the W Caribbean for a few days now so seeing it show on the ops for several runs is not unexpected. I don’t think we’re done yet...

[jbenedet]

I’d just focus on out to day 9 right now. That’s when guidance is showing a potential TC. And it’s not in clown range. We need high confidence that a strong tropical cyclone will develop in the western Caribbean first. Everything else is for entertainment purposes at this point.

[CheeselandSkies]

2 hours ago, cptcatz said:

The GFS 06z run was just posted above by Prospero.  Could be a Wilma part 2 exactly 15 years later to the day.  (Wilma struck Florida on October 24)

I have Prospero on Ignore due to his conspiracy-mongering.

[Amped]

Why the day 10 storm might actually form:

Large size storms more likely too be picked up 10 days in advance. This thing is huge.

It's been on multiple GFS runs

Has ensembles support

12z CMC also showing something although it's a strung out mess.

Has a large time window of favorable conditions .This makes it more likely something will form  maybe late but not never.

 

Why it might not form:

The GFS sometime erroneously shows TCs forming in the western Caribbean in the long range.

The Euro and EPS are not showing it.

 

 

 

[cptcatz]

Another GFS run with a Florida impact.  Looks like the western Caribbean starts spinning up around hour 200 so let's see if Euro catches on or not.

[Prospero]

1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I have Prospero on Ignore due to his conspiracy-mongering.

I do try to contribute quality more than raise an eyebrow now and then speaking what is truly on my mind. But hey, Truth (or possible Truth) is and has always been a scary and dangerous concept. We could go back hundreds of years and see examples of "conspiracy theories" being denied that were true and angered people only to learn in history how true they turned out to be. Even the weather modification experiments in the 60s were conspiracy theories until they were acknowledged.

I'll try to be more conservative.

I love this forum and hope I do not get banned altogether. GOL (ghost of leroy) is still here, so maybe I'll be OK even though on an ever growing list of ignores...

[Prospero]

17 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Another GFS run with a Florida impact.  Looks like the western Caribbean starts spinning up around hour 200 so let's see if Euro catches on or not.

Still hoping west central Florida skips the storms, but it does seem unfair we have not been in any kind of warning in 2020 and that is just embarrassing.

For those who have not added me to their ignore list, Tampa Bay is more in the focus on the 12Z model:

 

[etudiant]

2 hours ago, Prospero said:

I do try to contribute quality more than raise an eyebrow now and then speaking what is truly on my mind. But hey, Truth (or possible Truth) is and has always been a scary and dangerous concept. We could go back hundreds of years and see examples of "conspiracy theories" being denied that were true and angered people only to learn in history how true they turned out to be. Even the weather modification experiments in the 60s were conspiracy theories until they were acknowledged.

I'll try to be more conservative.

I love this forum and hope I do not get banned altogether. GOL (ghost of leroy) is still here, so maybe I'll be OK even though on an ever growing list of ignores...

When considering the validity of conspiracy theories, Bismarck's axiom, 'Never believe anything until it has been officially denied', would be worth keeping in mind.

[NorthHillsWx]

2020 is determined to paint every mile of coast from brownsville to Massachusetts in some sort of tropical watch/warning 

[TradeWinds]

3 hours ago, Prospero said:

Still hoping west central Florida skips the storms, but it does seem unfair we have not been in any kind of warning in 2020 and that is just embarrassing.

For those who have not added me to their ignore list, Tampa Bay is more in the focus on the 12Z model:

 

Who cares what people think.  I have no respect for anybody seeking attention by having to announce their intention to block somebody.  I have seen plenty of ridiculous posts all over this forum, especially when I lived up north and winter season came along.  The majority of this site lives of fantasy storms.

Back to your post...look at the bright side, you had lots of flood watches this year.  lol. I had some patio repair work back in August and had to clear off my lanai.  I kept things inside for hurricane season and almost put them back this past weekend.  I figured I'd wait another couple weeks just in case.  We should know more by early next week.

[Torch Tiger]

4 hours ago, Amped said:

Why the day 10 storm might actually form:

Large size storms more likely too be picked up 10 days in advance. This thing is huge.

It's been on multiple GFS runs

Has ensembles support

12z CMC also showing something although it's a strung out mess.

Has a large time window of favorable conditions .This makes it more likely something will form  maybe late but not never.

 

Why it might not form:

The GFS sometime erroneously shows TCs forming in the western Caribbean in the long range.

The Euro and EPS are not showing it.

 

 

 

Unfortunately, modeling does not dictate genesis, synoptics, track. JS

[Prospero]

47 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

Who cares what people think.  I have no respect for anybody seeking attention by having to announce their intention to block somebody.  I have seen plenty of ridiculous posts all over this forum, especially when I lived up north and winter season came along.  The majority of this site lives of fantasy storms.

Back to your post...look at the bright side, you had lots of flood watches this year.  lol. I had some patio repair work back in August and had to clear off my lanai.  I kept things inside for hurricane season and almost put them back this past weekend.  I figured I'd wait another couple weeks just in case.  We should know more by early next week.

Thanks TradeWinds, Florida neighbor.

I've been involved in internet forums since the 90's, alt this and alt that. I've been checked so many times I can't count. But manners are important, and timing is everything. When the discussions are barely active there is room for more personal input, like where to go for Sushi, etc., or occasional far-out ideas. But I do get excited when things are active and have posted inappropriately after a few beers when people are scrambling for their lives as a hurricane is approaching. I am not trying to be on ignore lists, and it hurts my "feeling" (as a good friend used to joke with me), but learning the expectations of any social environment is just part of growing up and belonging to a group. If I am ignored, it is my own fault. Someone making a point of it publicly may or may not be seeking attention, it may be directed totally at me to "behave" which I get. My skin is thick, by experience! When I get to the point of not learning or taking criticism, then I am trouble.

Second part, in Tampa Bay we've been in so many models with powerful storms predicted several days out that we are getting numb. That is foolish, as this is 2020 and only mid-October. We do know we may be preparing for a storm even up to Thanksgiving. But it is weird we have not been in an actual Tropical Storm or Hurricane warning this year. That might even make it more likely we could get slammed at the last minute to fully complete 2020. (Ooooops crazy talk again!)

[TradeWinds]

4 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Thanks TradeWinds, Florida neighbor.

I've been involved in internet forums since the 90's, alt this and alt that. I've been checked so many times I can't count. But manners are important, and timing is everything. When the discussions are barely active there is room for more personal input, like where to go for Sushi, etc., or occasional far-out ideas. But I do get excited when things are active and have posted inappropriately after a few beers when people are scrambling for their lives as a hurricane is approaching. I am not trying to be on ignore lists, and it hurts my "feeling" (as a good friend used to joke with me), but learning the expectations of any social environment is just part of growing up and belonging to a group. If I am ignored, it is my own fault. Someone making a point of it publicly may or may not be seeking attention, it may be directed totally at me to "behave" which I get. My skin is thick, by experience! When I get to the point of not learning or taking criticism, then I am trouble.

Second part, in Tampa Bay we've been in so many models with powerful storms predicted several days out that we are getting numb. That is foolish, as this is 2020 and only mid-October. We do know we may be preparing for a storm even up to Thanksgiving. But it is weird we have not been in an actual Tropical Storm or Hurricane warning this year. That might even make it more likely we could get slammed at the last minute to fully complete 2020. (Ooooops crazy talk again!)

There will be so many flip flops from Yucatan hits to out to sea to nothing at all, which very well may be the end result. But we watch. The FL peninsula as a whole has been spared. We had an inland tropical storm warning in Orlando with Isais but our highest gust may have been 25 mph. 

[Prospero]

31 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

There will be so many flip flops from Yucatan hits to out to sea to nothing at all, which very well may be the end result. But we watch. The FL peninsula as a whole has been spared. We had an inland tropical storm warning in Orlando with Isais but our highest gust may have been 25 mph. 

We've had TS winds at moments and gusts several times here at 50+ mph with some of the storms, a few mild storm surges, and beautiful roller waves several times from several Gulf storms. We were in five-day cones a few times, but never a warning.

18z GFS has the latest storm going over Cuba and out to sea. But each day brings new models.

Funny how the models always have perfect eyes. That is the problem with the models, the computers don't know how to throw a fly into the mix. Especially in 2020 with perfect eyes being so rare with random flies always messing them up.

 

[the ghost of leroy]

11 hours ago, Prospero said:

I do try to contribute quality more than raise an eyebrow now and then speaking what is truly on my mind. But hey, Truth (or possible Truth) is and has always been a scary and dangerous concept. We could go back hundreds of years and see examples of "conspiracy theories" being denied that were true and angered people only to learn in history how true they turned out to be. Even the weather modification experiments in the 60s were conspiracy theories until they were acknowledged.

I'll try to be more conservative.

I love this forum and hope I do not get banned altogether. GOL (ghost of leroy) is still here, so maybe I'll be OK even though on an ever growing list of ignores...

 

6 hours ago, Prospero said:

Thanks TradeWinds, Florida neighbor.

I've been involved in internet forums since the 90's, alt this and alt that. I've been checked so many times I can't count. But manners are important, and timing is everything. When the discussions are barely active there is room for more personal input, like where to go for Sushi, etc., or occasional far-out ideas. But I do get excited when things are active and have posted inappropriately after a few beers when people are scrambling for their lives as a hurricane is approaching. I am not trying to be on ignore lists, and it hurts my "feeling" (as a good friend used to joke with me), but learning the expectations of any social environment is just part of growing up and belonging to a group. If I am ignored, it is my own fault. Someone making a point of it publicly may or may not be seeking attention, it may be directed totally at me to "behave" which I get. My skin is thick, by experience! When I get to the point of not learning or taking criticism, then I am trouble.

Second part, in Tampa Bay we've been in so many models with powerful storms predicted several days out that we are getting numb. That is foolish, as this is 2020 and only mid-October. We do know we may be preparing for a storm even up to Thanksgiving. But it is weird we have not been in an actual Tropical Storm or Hurricane warning this year. That might even make it more likely we could get slammed at the last minute to fully complete 2020. (Ooooops crazy talk again!)

 

5 hours ago, Prospero said:

We've had TS winds at moments and gusts several times here at 50+ mph with some of the storms, a few mild storm surges, and beautiful roller waves several times from several Gulf storms. We were in five-day cones a few times, but never a warning.

18z GFS has the latest storm going over Cuba and out to sea. But each day brings new models.

Funny how the models always have perfect eyes. That is the problem with the models, the computers don't know how to throw a fly into the mix. Especially in 2020 with perfect eyes being so rare with random flies always messing them up.

 

Your biggest problem is all these paragraphs. That’s the real reason people want to ignore you. If you are efficiently conspiratorial people won’t care. 

[natedizel]

1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said:

 

 

Your biggest problem is all these paragraphs. That’s the real reason people want to ignore you. If you are efficiently conspiratorial people won’t care. 

Dude you probably have more people ignoring you than him. Haha

[the ghost of leroy]

6 hours ago, natedizel said:

Dude you probably have more people ignoring you than him. Haha

Yeah. I’m sure. A bunch of people who are here to post about “science” but what they really mean is you have to say nice things about the storms.