wdrag Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 Hi! I add this for October per some tweets I just saw... credit to the authors listed. I trust. 229P/24 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 I don't think this season shuts down in October the way that 2004 and 2017 did. I think we likely still see one or two major hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 1 hour ago, Floydbuster said: I don't think this season shuts down in October the way that 2004 and 2017 did. I think we likely still see one or two major hurricanes. Watching here in Gulfport Florida. We never get too relaxed this time of year. Granted, it is quiet now and absolutely gorgeous as far as weather. But as the Grateful Dead say, "When life looks like Easy Street, there is danger at your door". Even so, it does feel like things are over here for us. Kind of hoping, we were very lucky so far for 2020. It has been interesting season (ok maybe trolling Ghost of Leroy), and we felt several storms with gusts in the TS range, a lot of rain at times, mild surges, etc., but all in all very easy season for the central west coast of Florida. We were in five day cones, so we did have moments of excitement. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 12 hours ago, Prospero said: Watching here in Gulfport Florida. We never get too relaxed this time of year. Granted, it is quiet now and absolutely gorgeous as far as weather. But as the Grateful Dead say, "When life looks like Easy Street, there is danger at your door". Even so, it does feel like things are over here for us. Kind of hoping, we were very lucky so far for 2020. It has been interesting season (ok maybe trolling Ghost of Leroy), and we felt several storms with gusts in the TS range, a lot of rain at times, mild surges, etc., but all in all very easy season for the central west coast of Florida. We were in five day cones, so we did have moments of excitement. LOL Same here on the east coast of Florida (Palm Beach County). We were in the cones of Isaias and Laura and actually got a hurricane warning from Isaias, but our worst impacts were from when tropical depression pre-Sally moved through. I have a feeling Florida's force field may come down in the next couple weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 26, 2020 Author Share Posted September 26, 2020 Both the GFS op and the parallel are now picking up on TCG in the deep Caribbean to Western Caribbean in the mid-to-long range. The ECMWF shows zilch. However its ensembles are now showing possible development in the WCARIB as well, all roughly within a 100 hr variance. The para is faster than the operational with development and potential TCG. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 Teddy 2 coming off Africa as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 If I had a dollar for every time a model showed a storm passing by or over Tampa Bay this season, well... I suppose I could buy a large extra crispy mushroom pineapple pizza and a 12 pack of Amber Bock. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 Models are not showing it hitting SE Florida 5-10 days out. I guess that means SE Florida is getting a landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 Have to give the GFS-parallel the prize for the eye catchers this year. How did it actually do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 06z GFS-Para shows back to back storms out of the Caribbean, first one looks like to make landfall around Tampa then stalls and fizzles, then a couple days later the next storm plows through south Florida at 942 mb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 There is a trend, slowly but surely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 27, 2020 Author Share Posted September 27, 2020 Here comes the first wave that has model support. The GFS15 vs 16(para) have varying solutions. The first wave near the Lesser Antilles is much more vigorously modeled by the GFS to become the intense hurricane. The para wants to throw down the gauntlet on the second wave currently out over the MDR. At any rate, chances are we'll have some sort of W. Caribbean action by next weekend. The ECMWF ensembles are increasing support as well for something developing. We're getting closer to the mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 27, 2020 Author Share Posted September 27, 2020 SSTs are obviously not going to be an issue in the NW Caribbean. There will be some cold fronts that will cool the N. GOM but the SE GOM should remain quite warm for anything that would/could potentially hook into Southwesterly flow and head across the Florida Peninsula.Bigger influences will be stacked vs sheared flow, land influences (Yucatan, Cuba) and how intense a hypothetical TC would become prior to entry into the SE GOM. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 When's the last real decent October Western Caribbean major? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 Just now, Floydbuster said: When's the last real decent October Western Caribbean major? Depends what you consider western Sandy and Mathew made it to eastern Cuba Otto November 2016 hit Panama Rina 2011 was near the Yucatan. and in October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Floydbuster said: When's the last real decent October Western Caribbean major? Michael? Didn't peak in the Caribbean but still an October Caribbean hurricane that became a major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 GFS has a 971mb Cat2 making landfall just north of BE in MX. Still an ongoing trend north with the track every run. I think it may eventually end up taking a Charlie like track across Cuba into SW FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, Amped said: I think it may eventually end up taking a Charlie like track across Cuba into SW FL. Oh yea, Charlie, it had us in the cross-hairs in Tampa Bay up to a few hours before landfall. So many people evacuated with a historic traffic jam on the bridges to go to Orlando for safety. Charlie did a surprise hard right at Port Charlotte and mostly missed Tampa Bay. But my friends who went to Orlando had stories of trees falling down in hotel parking lots, power being out, so on. One person came home to a waterfront home on the intercoastal waterway here and their old dried out Christmas tree from the year before was still sitting on their boat dock. I was in Sun City Center in southeast Hillsborough County watching shutters and roof tiles fly down the road. I watched for a couple hours, still daylight which seems to be a real treat for us storm geeks. They have very few trees in that senior community, but driving around the next morning did see a lot of trees down on the main highways and streets. There was a mile long swath on I-75 just north of the Port Charlotte exit where it was obvious the eye wall came through. Wow, it was a Cat 5 if I remember right. Looked more like a wide tornado path came by. Trees snapped off like match sticks. Francis and Jeanne were both stronger in this area the same year very soon after. What a year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 The GFS generally has more weight with me, and October 11 is far away date for now, but will be paying attention... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 1. A broad area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea in a few days. Some slow development is possible late this week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 GFS now showing nothing. Looks like we have indeed ended the season very early. ACE per storm not at all impressive this season. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, ldub23 said: GFS now showing nothing. Looks like we have indeed ended the season very early. ACE per storm not at all impressive this season. Yup. Just total trash. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, ldub23 said: GFS now showing nothing. Looks like we have indeed ended the season very early. ACE per storm not at all impressive this season. As a homeowner in Boca Raton I would love to see the season be over but the reality is that we are not even into October yet and many of these late season home brew storms develop quickly and are not foreseen by the global models. Bottom line: You may be right and I certainly hope that you are but it is WAY too early to take any victory laps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 Would not give up on it this yet. The main issues preventing it from taking off are land interaction and competing centers. On the plus side there's low shear and a potential stall over the warmest waters in the basin. Too soon to tell 4 days out. Edit: It was mostly cynical troll Ldub23 writing it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 28, 2020 Author Share Posted September 28, 2020 The 12z GFSv15 does try to develop the current wave in the ECARIB but gets it too close to the Yucatan Peninsula. It is inland too long and also gets bypassed by the trough. The second wave evolves CAG characteristics further west and breaks off into the EPAC. This is of course a single operational run solution but let's go ahead and cancel the remainder of the season. Trollololo... That being said, let's look at the 12z GFSv16 (para). It develops the first wave much quicker south of Cuba near to Jamaica. It also gains enough latitude to get caught into the southwesterlies associated with the digging trough. This turns the first potential TC, at this point a hurricane into and across the Florida Peninsula. Additionally, the para develops the second ITCZ wave out of convergence off Venezuela and then goes bananas, having a second TC bombing out in the NW Caribbean into the long range. Varying solutions but pretty much the overall theme here continues to be increased chances of TCG somewhere in the NW Caribbean. That hasn't really changed. I should also add that this morning's ECMWF ensemble continues to show tight clusters of TCG in the NW Caribbean through the medium range as well. Does this guarantee we'll have a WCARIB hurricane? No, but there's not really anything to prove we won't. Likewise, the season isn't dead. We'll revisit that topic in about five more weeks once the next favorable CCKW has passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: GFS now showing nothing. Looks like we have indeed ended the season very early. ACE per storm not at all impressive this season. Lol. I'm predicting two more majors coming out of the Caribbean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 3 hours ago, the ghost of leroy said: Yup. Just total trash. Dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 47 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Lol. I'm predicting two more majors coming out of the Caribbean. People love to model hug 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Dude No longer, Anthony, just a spirit. As always ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: People love to model hug Lol. They sure do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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