Windspeed Posted June 19, 2020 Author Share Posted June 19, 2020 Looks like AOML's OHC and TCHP maps are ingesting RS data correctly now. Still a vast spread of TCHP for mid-June, but way more realistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 19, 2020 Share Posted June 19, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2020 Share Posted June 19, 2020 11 hours ago, andyhb said: The AA precip over almost the entire Gulf suggests a quiet Gulf? It's not as above normal as say the areas around the lower Carribbean or just off SE coast... besides the small area near the Big Bend of FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 19, 2020 Author Share Posted June 19, 2020 How will the current SAL outbreak influence this otherwise favorable period? Is it expected to subside soon?Plumes of SAL dry airmass and aerosols riding the easterly jet should suppress activity for a few weeks at least. It will moderate with time as the ITCZ and individual waves begin to gain some latitude July-August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted June 19, 2020 Share Posted June 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 5 hours ago, WhiteoutWX said: How will the current SAL outbreak influence this otherwise favorable period? Is it expected to subside soon? Plumes of SAL dry airmass and aerosols riding the easterly jet should suppress activity for a few weeks at least. It will moderate with time as the ITCZ and individual waves begin to gain some latitude July-August. I guess I meant more specifically, how will the upcoming favorable MJO wave influence the SAL. Would the strong SAL we have seen this week be more likely to subside during this period? I’m not familiar with how all this things interact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 19, 2020 Author Share Posted June 19, 2020 I guess I meant more specifically, how will the upcoming favorable MJO wave influence the SAL. Would the strong SAL we have seen this week be more likely to subside during this period? I’m not familiar with how all this things interact.If SAL plumes continue to be lifted and break away into the easterly jet during the potential favorable MJO phase over the Atlantic, I am sure it would still have a negative effect on environmental conditions for cyclogenesis. But we have seen cyclogenesis occur with waves that were interacting with SAL in the past. It really just depends on location of a hypothetical wave axis versus the most hostile dry airmass and propagation of moisture flux out of the ITCZ. That's a remains to be seen kind of thing. Who knows... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 La Nina going in the Pacific subsurface.. I found a correlation of hurricane season subsurface vs surface 0.97 to 0.83 vs the 0.97 to 0.90. So it's a La Nina... but no severe wx season really, and a lot of blandness right now in the atmosphere will probably keep us away from Cat 4s or 5s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 4 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: La Nina going in the Pacific subsurface.. I found a correlation of hurricane season subsurface vs surface 0.97 to 0.83 vs the 0.97 to 0.90. So it's a La Nina... but no severe wx season really, and a lot of blandness right now in the atmosphere will probably keep us away from Cat 4s or 5s. I guess I don't understand how Severe weather translates to no Cat 4's or 5's. If you have any evidence I would like to hear it, otherwise it seems unwise to say that. Also are you forgetting we have had some pretty significant events, such as the huge event in April - the 12th I believe. It doesn't seem to be a quiet year, YTD we have had 10,861 severe weather reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 12 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: La Nina going in the Pacific subsurface.. I found a correlation of hurricane season subsurface vs surface 0.97 to 0.83 vs the 0.97 to 0.90. So it's a La Nina... but no severe wx season really, and a lot of blandness right now in the atmosphere will probably keep us away from Cat 4s or 5s. Lol, wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 21, 2020 Author Share Posted June 21, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 8 hours ago, Windspeed said: What does that show? The azores high seems to keep anything in the MDR on a due west track until the western Caribbean. But, it is still too early for much in that region base don climatology. This would be great in Aug/Sept. Unless there is something I am missing. Such as the area of lower pressures moving west. Not sure if that is pointing out development potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 22, 2020 Author Share Posted June 22, 2020 What does that show? The azores high seems to keep anything in the MDR on a due west track until the western Caribbean. But, it is still too early for much in that region base don climatology. This would be great in Aug/Sept. Unless there is something I am missing. Such as the area of lower pressures moving west. Not sure if that is pointing out development potential.That particular model animation shows Azore's ridging below the 700 hPa layer of the atmosphere backing down over the eastern subtropical Atlantic. Surface-to-mid level pressures weaken slightly, retreating poleward. This eases low-level easterlies off Africa, which, in turn, limits SAL propagation westward off Africa. Additionally the ITCZ would become less suppressed south and gain some latitude within that pressure regime. This would help increase instability along the MDR, with better low-level convergence for convection, especially if the MJO is in a favorable phase aloft. Tropical wave tracks would also gain some latitude with the decrease in pressure heights, and be able to tap into moisture feed from the ITCZ. We generally see this pattern of strong Azores ridging back down in August, not early July. Typically a beefy late Spring to middle Summer eastern Atlantic Azores ridge is why we generally see SAL and too amped a low-level easterly jet to favor any MDR development. That, and upper level shear and vorticity is not yet favorable. At any rate, the pattern in the animation above may coincide with a favorable MJO [see below] and a relaxation of upper level wind shear across the Caribbean and lower MDR as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 12 hours ago, Windspeed said: That particular model animation shows Azore's ridging below the 700 hPa layer of the atmosphere backing down over the eastern subtropical Atlantic. Surface-to-mid level pressures weaken slightly, retreating poleward. This eases low-level easterlies off Africa, which, in turn, limits SAL propagation westward off Africa. Additionally the ITCZ would become less suppressed south and gain some latitude within that pressure regime. This would help increase instability along the MDR, with better low-level convergence for convection, especially if the MJO is in a favorable phase aloft. Tropical wave tracks would also gain some latitude with the decrease in pressure heights, and be able to tap into moisture feed from the ITCZ. We generally see this pattern of strong Azores ridging back down in August, not early July. Typically a beefy late Spring to middle Summer eastern Atlantic Azores ridge is why we generally see SAL and too amped a low-level easterly jet to favor any MDR development. That, and upper level shear and vorticity is not yet favorable. At any rate, the pattern in the animation above may coincide with a favorable MJO [see below] and a relaxation of upper level wind shear across the Caribbean and lower MDR as well. Wow, you are a wealth of information! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 23, 2020 Author Share Posted June 23, 2020 Classic La Niña taking shape. Questions remain on strength and coverage, especially in 3.4, but it is no doubt kicking in at this point. I suspect even a moderate La Niña would be a safe call, but still can't rule out a --ENSO either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 Ascat is the worst. Can we go back to the old days where we just kinda didn't name midlatitude crap? 4 shit storms is killing my hype for the tropical season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 18 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: Ascat is the worst. Can we go back to the old days where we just kinda didn't name midlatitude crap? 4 shit storms is killing my hype for the tropical season. You mean you're not team "Name Every Convective Swirl"? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 Quite the blow up of convection off the Texas Coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 8 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said: You mean you're not team "Name Every Convective Swirl"? Among other things, it makes it darn near impossible to retire any name earlier than "F." Even in 1992, Andrew probably wouldn't have been Andrew if names were burned through like they are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 13 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Among other things, it makes it darn near impossible to retire any name earlier than "F." Even in 1992, Andrew probably wouldn't have been Andrew if names were burned through like they are now. Well we did have a catastrophic D storm just last year. NHC definitely got a little generous with some storms though. At the very least we have ACE which isn’t significantly skewed by these blink storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 Oh man, how did I blank on Dorian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: Oh man, how did I blank on Dorian? Because cat 5s are ubiquitous now. It’s not like the 80s and 90s. There are too many to keep track of now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 On 6/23/2020 at 10:16 PM, CheeselandSkies said: Among other things, it makes it darn near impossible to retire any name earlier than "F." Even in 1992, Andrew probably wouldn't have been Andrew if names were burned through like they are now. If it meets the criteria then it should get a name. Dolly definitely met the criteria for a TS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 On 6/23/2020 at 1:38 PM, Chrisrotary12 said: You mean you're not team "Name Every Convective Swirl"? I am. Thus far we have 4 named storms on June 25th. We got a legit shot of rivaling the 2005 hyper season of 28 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 The latest 2 runs (maybe more) of the GFS shows an area of low pressure with a wave in the monsoon trough dropping down to 997mb as it moves WNW over Trinidad and just off the coast of Venezuela around 260 hours out. Does anyone have thoughts on this? It is in fantasy land but very interesting to see a low latitude spin up early in the season just like @Windspeed forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 18z still has the low pressure but it is now much weaker and fizzles out. By weaker I mean really just a strong tropical wave that may only briefly spin up, but I would bet it stays an open wave. Per this run. Still out in fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 Wrote a piece on the potential of an active tropical season amidst the pandemic. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/06/potential-tropical-implications-of.html 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 30, 2020 Author Share Posted June 30, 2020 Fairly healthy wave axis with an MCS mid-level vort max south of the Verdes. Who knows if it will persist long with the SAL locked in to its NW. But interesting nonetheless. 12Z ECMWF does have a solution or two that closes off a surface low but there's negligible model support beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 Looks like the next system could be the little end of the front hanging and developing off the coast of Georgia this weekend. Probably minor impacts for the Florida/Georgia coast then the bigger stuff stays out to sea. GFS shows maybe a hurricane OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 1, 2020 Share Posted July 1, 2020 The 00z GFS shows a depression forming 100 hours out and then intensifying to 974 mb at hour 174. Wonder when the NHC will pick up on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 1, 2020 Share Posted July 1, 2020 Coastal bomb in summer...why not, 2020? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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