2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[TradeWinds]

7 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Any bets this is a TD by sometime tomorrow? Long term it will probably not develop much, maybe not a name. But around here we are never surprised to wake up and check the news to see a TD developed overnight when we were asleep.

Watching the palms sway, oaks dance, feeling a very stiff steady warm breeze, it feels like "something", again.

Then I watched a large swallowtail butterfly that was in the wind effortlessly fly from one hibiscus flower to the next as they were moving to and fro. It must weigh less than a typical bird feather, and had the DNA programming to adjust its wings and work with the wind, not against. Incredible.

The 850 voricity is strong.  I can see an invest but not a storm. It is 2020 though so you never know. We had some good squalls come thru earlier. I have some video but too large to post. 

[Prospero]

2 hours ago, TradeWinds said:

The 850 voricity is strong.  I can see an invest but not a storm. It is 2020 though so you never know. We had some good squalls come thru earlier. I have some video but too large to post. 

Of course we had the total non-attention getter over Florida that became Omar I posted about during a day like today.

Who remembers Omar during 2020?

EDIT: Added:
Neighbors lost power here in Gulfport, FL. Granted nothing like other areas this year, but for a system with 0% chance of development at the 8PM update, a spinning low over Florida still gets our attention. Seems like over warm Gulf waters late tonight it might flair up a bit before it meets its demise. Already sustained winds at 30 mph around here.

[turtlehurricane]

This 'tropical disturbance', which is over South Florida now and the NHC says could form later this week as it heads north back towards us, is actually the first cold front of the year for South Florida. Cooler and drier air, and northeast winds of 20-35 mph. Most of all though, flooding rains as continental air slams into tropical air. 

Basically, once the cold front stalls over Cuba and the Keys, it will have plenty of time to brew. This is a harbinger for the beginning of West Caribbean season...

[dan11295]

Looks like we finally have a bit of a quiet period coming up, thankfully. MDR season might be about over. Probably have an uptick in activity early October, my guess is the Gulf might be about done for the year (hopefully).

[bigtenfan]

29 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Looks like we finally have a bit of a quiet period coming up, thankfully. MDR season might be about over. Probably have an uptick in activity early October, my guess is the Gulf might be about done for the year (hopefully).

Agree about MDR season possibly being about over( although one never knows) but out of curiosity with W Carib  season about to start what makes you say that  that the Gulf may be done for the year? I think that the gulf is very vulnerable during W Carib season.

[dan11295]

4 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

Agree about MDR season possibly being about over( although one never knows) but out of curiosity with W Carib  season about to start what makes you say that  that the Gulf may be done for the year? I think that the gulf is very vulnerable during W Carib season.

Obviously can't be sure, but usually once you start getting cold fronts into the Gulf it usually means the end of the season there.

[TradeWinds]

3 hours ago, bigtenfan said:

Agree about MDR season possibly being about over( although one never knows) but out of curiosity with W Carib  season about to start what makes you say that  that the Gulf may be done for the year? I think that the gulf is very vulnerable during W Carib season.

Western Gulf.  Climo typically closes the valve on TX and most of LA as the fall weather pattern sweeps in cold fronts.  TX has had 2 post September hurricanes in 120 yrs I believe.  Most common threats are New Orleans to Florida.

[Prospero]

I'm pretty sure every mile of the Gulf Coast and most, if not all of the Atlantic Coast of the US has been in a cone at least once this season.

Makes for an interesting season so far...

 

[the ghost of leroy]

21 minutes ago, Prospero said:

I'm pretty sure every mile of the Gulf Coast and most, if not all of the Atlantic Coast of the US has been in a cone at least once this season.

Makes for an interesting season so far...

 

Interesting? Tell that to the victims of tropical storm beta

[NorthHillsWx]

And.... the basin’s dead 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

And.... the basin’s dead 

 

[Derecho!]

On 9/21/2020 at 2:11 PM, bigtenfan said:

Agree about MDR season possibly being about over( although one never knows) but out of curiosity with W Carib  season about to start what makes you say that  that the Gulf may be done for the year? I think that the gulf is very vulnerable during W Carib season.

There's a huge difference between Western and Eastern Gulf during W Carib Season. Western is Dead. the threat is essentially to the Gulf coast of Florida. 

[Windspeed]

We're in an amplified pattern right now so any GOM or W. Caribbean, regardless of CAG or easterly wave development would most likely turn into southerly or southwesterly flow depending on ECONUS trough and frontal placement the next few weeks. Now that being said, there might be a more zonal pattern re-emerge mid October that could allow for some western MDR development out of the ITCZ and be an ECARIB threat. Though the western extension of WAM is winding down, the MJO should be phasing favorably around that time. That would potentially still give us some action in the Antilles. Perhaps a few more central Atlantic fish/ACE generators and even another deep SW Caribbean system in November. This is getting into extreme long range. But though the Atlantic is dead this week, I think we'll have a busy stretch in October. ENSO continues negative and AMO is still favorable for bursts of activity.

 

I'm going to say 4 more hurricanes, one of those being a major before the season closes in November.

 

23/8/2 right now with an ACE of 105. We finish around 30/12/3? ACE somewhere in the 130 to 140s range. Not as much ACE as I had considered in the preseason due to smaller number of majors, but obviously the number of storms this year has been insane regardless. Will that be enough to verify all the preseason forecasts for a hyperactive season? Based on number of storms, no debate. Based on landfalls? Still no debate. Based on ACE? Questionable. Definitely "active" but perhaps just shy of hyperactive?

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

We're in an amplified pattern right now so any GOM or W. Caribbean, regardless of CAG or easterly wave development would most likely turn into southerly or southwesterly flow depending on ECONUS trough and frontal placement the next few weeks. Now that being said, there might be a more zonal pattern re-emerge mid October that could allow for some western MDR development out of the ITCZ and be an ECARIB threat. Though the western extension of WAM is winding down, the MJO should be phasing favorably around that time. That would potentially still give us some action in the Antilles. Perhaps a few more central Atlantic fish/ACE generators and even another deep SW Caribbean system in November. This is getting into extreme long range. But though the Atlantic is dead this week, I think we'll have a busy stretch in October. ENSO continues negative and AMO is still favorable for bursts of activity.

I'm going to say 4 more hurricanes, one of those being a major before the season closes in November.

23/8/2 right now with an ACE of 105. We finish around 30/12/3? ACE somewhere in the 130 to 140s range. Not as much ACE as I had considered in the preseason due to smaller number of majors, but obviously the number of storms this year has been insane regardless. Will that be enough to verify all the preseason forecasts for a hyperactive season?

I mean...just taking a more plain,, commonsense language approach here...doesn't "active" mean, well...a lot of activity? So on a basic linguistic level of definition...isn't the number of storms enough to verify as such? Lol Was the prediction "hyperactive AND strong"? If not, then technically...it verifies  

[the ghost of leroy]

Sure. We can all agree to call this the most trash hyperactive season ever. 

[Windspeed]

Sure. We can all agree to call this the most trash hyperactive season ever. 

Well we got a CONUS intense landfall out of the way. There are inactive years here and there that have these (Andrew '92) albeit rare. But we've seemingly had everything this year except an Atlantic Cat 5. Those used to be rare, but since 2016, Octobers alone have given us three (Matthew, Maria and Michael). Wild all were 'M' storms. Mu anyone?

[Windspeed]

I’d probably go B+ right now for a grade? Extraordinary numerical activity and a lot of impactful hurricane landfalls, but the lack of comparable ACE and majors pulls the score downward. Only two majors in a year that’s already gone Greek is as insane as the number of storms.

If someone would have told me we'd end up with 25+ named storms and only two majors, I'd have laughed them off the forum. Yet that is now a real possibility.

[cptcatz]

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Well we got a CONUS intense landfall out of the way. There are inactive years here and there that have these (Andrew '92) albeit rare. But we've seemingly had everything this year except an Atlantic Cat 5. Those used to be rare, but since 2016, Octobers alone have given us three (Matthew, Maria and Michael). Wild all were 'M' storms. Mu anyone?

Kind of a stretch to call Maria an October storm.  NHC wasn't even issuing advisories to post-tropical storm Maria in October...

[Windspeed]

Kind of a stretch to call Maria an October storm.  NHC wasn't even issuing advisories to post-tropical storm Maria in October...

Oops. My bad. Thanks for the correction. Had Maria as an early October system in my head. No stretch at all there, more like just flat incorrect.

[the ghost of leroy]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’d probably go B+ right now for a grade? Extraordinary numerical activity and a lot of impactful hurricane landfalls, but the lack of comparable ACE and majors pulls the score downward. Only two majors in a year that’s already gone Greek is as insane as the number of storms.

B+ is about right but this is like when the valedictorian just mails it in. If it were the dumb kid studying hard we could root for it. But here we shame. 

[Windspeed]

B+ is about right but this is like when the valedictorian just mails it in. If it were the dumb kid studying hard we could root for it. But here we shame. 

What would you consider needing to unfold late season to bring this up to A-/A territory?

[cptcatz]

21 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said:

B+ is about right but this is like when the valedictorian just mails it in. If it were the dumb kid studying hard we could root for it. But here we shame. 

What would you consider needing to unfold late season to bring this up to A-/A territory?

Probably the only thing that actually would do it across the board would be a CONUS cat 5 landfall in a mid-sized city or bigger.  Or maybe a cat 3-4 with an Irma-like track that affects the entire Florida peninsula. 

[AnthonyEC]

Wilma into Tampa Bay would more than be an A. 

[Windspeed]

For me, two more majors, regardless of land interaction. The lack of them this season is really the only thing blowing it out the roof. I get they mean squat if nobody is affected. However, climatologically-speaking, any majors from this point forward would likely be Caribbean-based storms and virtually guaranteed to hit land.

[the ghost of leroy]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

2 hours ago, the ghost of leroy said:

B+ is about right but this is like when the valedictorian just mails it in. If it were the dumb kid studying hard we could root for it. But here we shame. 

What would you consider needing to unfold late season to bring this up to A-/A territory?

A Mitch/Wilma level event in the Western Caribbean

[Prospero]

2 hours ago, AnthonyEC said:

Wilma into Tampa Bay would more than be an A. 

A Wilma that wind shear takes down to a TS a few hours before landfall works for me. We've dodged a few this year, and have barely done any prep, but could handle the thrill (and fear) as long as we don't lose power or any more trees. Irma took all of our morning to noon shade Oaks and our electric bill went way up keeping out house cool in the summer since.

I'd even be open to a decent 6-8 ft storm surge and our humble town of Gulfport, Florida would recover and everyone would pitch in to help out the businesses downtown. (They may not agree so much though...) I suppose a 6-8 ft storm surge here might be closer to 12 ft or more in downtown Tampa where the Tampa Bay might be pushed up, so that would not be good news for Tampa.

I'd rather no more storms for Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, or the Florida panhandle this year. They got their share already.

Of course I'd rather a weak storm hit here on the weekend when I am not working as much so I can enjoy it more.

So far I give the season an A-. It started early, kept busy, a lot of hours watching and reading here and there, and I really haven't been bored til now. But with the absolutely gorgeous weather the past couple days here on the central west coast of Florida, no complaints at all.

[TradeWinds]

3 hours ago, Prospero said:

A Wilma that wind shear takes down to a TS a few hours before landfall works for me. We've dodged a few this year, and have barely done any prep, but could handle the thrill (and fear) as long as we don't lose power or any more trees. Irma took all of our morning to noon shade Oaks and our electric bill went way up keeping out house cool in the summer since.

I'd even be open to a decent 6-8 ft storm surge and our humble town of Gulfport, Florida would recover and everyone would pitch in to help out the businesses downtown. (They may not agree so much though...) I suppose a 6-8 ft storm surge here might be closer to 12 ft or more in downtown Tampa where the Tampa Bay might be pushed up, so that would not be good news for Tampa.

I'd rather no more storms for Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, or the Florida panhandle this year. They got their share already.

Of course I'd rather a weak storm hit here on the weekend when I am not working as much so I can enjoy it more.

So far I give the season an A-. It started early, kept busy, a lot of hours watching and reading here and there, and I really haven't been bored til now. But with the absolutely gorgeous weather the past couple days here on the central west coast of Florida, no complaints at all.

It really has been an odd but solid year for tracking. I hate so many were impacted though. We will see how October materializes and whether the FL peninsula can keep the force field going. It's the only place that hasn't really been impacted. Isaias had warnings but very minimal impact to FL. 

[Prospero]

Wow! Kind of surreal.

[A-L-E-K]

zzzzzzz

 

[cptcatz]

9 hours ago, TradeWinds said:

It really has been an odd but solid year for tracking. I hate so many were impacted though. We will see how October materializes and whether the FL peninsula can keep the force field going. It's the only place that hasn't really been impacted. Isaias had warnings but very minimal impact to FL. 

 

Our worst weather of the season in SE Florida was probably when tropical depression "Sally" moved through which gave steady squalls all day.  Didn't get much more than a breeze during Isaias.

On another note, Euro is showing an African wave developing in about 9 days and staying well south under a huge Bermuda high...