Leo Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Greek names by this weekend, anybody? Dang... I never thought I'd see the day where it would even be a possibility for them in September. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 I’m going all in on 90L. Bathtub water, decreasing shear, unstable air mass, and location location location. SW gulf is a hotspot for quick spin ups (orientation of geography?). Given the well organized look seen this morning would not surprise me that any additional increase would lead to formation of a TD by tonight. I think 90L wins the race for “W” and I think it could also become our next hurricane. Going to be a painfully slow mover and since no vortex exists yet models have taken up almost every inch of the western gulf for possible tracks. I personally think a long northward trek into Texas is most likely, but will need a defined coc before we know anything on that front 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I’m going all in on 90L. Bathtub water, decreasing shear, unstable air mass, and location location location. SW gulf is a hotspot for quick spin ups (orientation of geography?). Given the well organized look seen this morning would not surprise me that any additional increase would lead to formation of a TD by tonight. I think 90L wins the race for “W” and I think it could also become our next hurricane. Going to be a painfully slow mover and since no vortex exists yet models have taken up almost every inch of the western gulf for possible tracks. I personally think a long northward trek into Texas is most likely, but will need a defined coc before we know anything on that front that would be a real coup for 90L to spin up that quickly and nab Wilfred from the other INVESTs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leo Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: that would be a real coup for 90L to spin up that quickly and nab Wilfred from the other INVESTs. At the rate it's developing, I'd say the coup is more than likely xD 98L, despite the odds, still hasn't gotten its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Well I don’t think anyone can complain about this hurricane season, 2020 has literally had something for everyone. If you’re a numbers person, we’re going on the “w” storm halfway through September. You like high end hurricane landfalls? Laura. You like disorganized spinny thingies with names? You’ll be set for 3 years. East coast metro hit? Isaias produced hurricane force gusts from N.C. to MA. Long track MDR storms? Paulette and Teddy. High end fish storm, watch teddy this week. Hurricane landfalls? Every single hurricane has hit land. Teddy may too. Rapid Intensification? Check. Survivalist storms? We’ve had two hit the tallest peaks in the Caribbean and STRENGTHEN after doing so. You a person who loves strengthening systems on approach? Check check check check check check. Preseason named storm? Yep. Needle in a haystack storm? Paulette making landfall on Bermuda. Slow moving epic rain producer? Sally. Ridiculous storm surge, thank you Laura. I mean, we’ve had everything for everyone! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Well I don’t think anyone can complain about this hurricane season, 2020 has literally had something for everyone. If you’re a numbers person, we’re going on the “w” storm halfway through September. You like high end hurricane landfalls? Laura. You like disorganized spinny thingies with names? You’ll be set for 3 years. East coast metro hit? Isaias produced hurricane force gusts from N.C. to MA. Long track MDR storms? Paulette and Teddy. High end fish storm, watch teddy this week. Hurricane landfalls? Every single hurricane has hit land. Teddy may too. Rapid Intensification? Check. Survivalist storms? We’ve had two hit the tallest peaks in the Caribbean and STRENGTHEN after doing so. You a person who loves strengthening systems on approach? Check check check check check check. Preseason named storm? Yep. Needle in a haystack storm? Paulette making landfall on Bermuda. Slow moving epic rain producer? Sally. Ridiculous storm surge, thank you Laura. I mean, we’ve had everything for everyone!-Merger EWRC: Laura-"Moisture Bubble" storms that gave the middle finger to dry air and shear? Everything near the Lesser A. -"Border crosser": Hanna-Sub 940mb GoM? Laura-Bahamas strike: IsaiasCentral America strike: Nana-South Carolina landfall: Bertha-Laura and Sally knocked out radar towers-Sally pulled a Harvey with rainfall totals-17/20 storms have set the earliest date (Arthur, Bertha, and Dolly did not) So yeah, something for everybody except the people who believe ACE should be the only standard (which it should be done away with IMO) Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 21 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Well I don’t think anyone can complain about this hurricane season, 2020 has literally had something for everyone. If you’re a numbers person, we’re going on the “w” storm halfway through September. You like high end hurricane landfalls? Laura. You like disorganized spinny thingies with names? You’ll be set for 3 years. East coast metro hit? Isaias produced hurricane force gusts from N.C. to MA. Long track MDR storms? Paulette and Teddy. High end fish storm, watch teddy this week. Hurricane landfalls? Every single hurricane has hit land. Teddy may too. Rapid Intensification? Check. Survivalist storms? We’ve had two hit the tallest peaks in the Caribbean and STRENGTHEN after doing so. You a person who loves strengthening systems on approach? Check check check check check check. Preseason named storm? Yep. Needle in a haystack storm? Paulette making landfall on Bermuda. Slow moving epic rain producer? Sally. Ridiculous storm surge, thank you Laura. I mean, we’ve had everything for everyone! No we haven’t. A season can’t be epic without a sub 915 storm. It’s a rule. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 No we haven’t. A season can’t be epic without a sub 915 storm. It’s a rule. 2020 kinda burned the rules...Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 23 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: 2020 kinda burned the rules... Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk No, you kids did because you’re bored and desperate to have something legendary to hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 West Caribbean will be crazy going into October. Florida will be lucky to not see some serious threats with the way this season is going. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 1 minute ago, turtlehurricane said: West Caribbean will be crazy going into October. Florida will be lucky to not see some serious threats with the way this season is going. I agree with that. Hopefully we get our cat 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 16, 2020 Author Share Posted September 16, 2020 I agree with that. Hopefully we get our cat 5 Teddy has a shot at Cat 5. It'll be moving over 29°C SSTs tomorrow within a divergent environment. Definitely going to be a Category 4 and most likely a high end one during its life cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said: I agree with that. Hopefully we get our cat 5 Teddy has a shot at Cat 5. It'll be moving over 29°C SSTs tomorrow within a divergent environment. Definitely going to be a Category 4 and most likely a high end one during its life cycle. Sorry, I only count it if it happens past about 60W. It’s the whole “tree falls in a forest but nobody hears it” principle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 16, 2020 Author Share Posted September 16, 2020 Sorry, I only count it if it happens past about 60W. It’s the whole “tree falls in a forest but nobody hears it” principle. Well we should have some recon flights during peak since it will eventually be a land threat (Bermuda or possibly NE/NS, etc). You're probably meaning on the ground in situ though. I bet you had no love for Lorenzo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Well we should have some recon flights during peak since it will eventually be a land threat (Bermuda or possibly NE/NS, etc). You're probably meaning on the ground in situ though. I bet you had no love for Lorenzo. When I was younger I’d get excited for fishes. I’d even track the EPAC for “science” Now I just don’t care. AGW is making lots of strong storms so I can be pickier and demand excellence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Well I don’t think anyone can complain about this hurricane season, 2020 has literally had something for everyone. If you’re a numbers person, we’re going on the “w” storm halfway through September. You like high end hurricane landfalls? Laura. You like disorganized spinny thingies with names? You’ll be set for 3 years. East coast metro hit? Isaias produced hurricane force gusts from N.C. to MA. Long track MDR storms? Paulette and Teddy. High end fish storm, watch teddy this week. Hurricane landfalls? Every single hurricane has hit land. Teddy may too. Rapid Intensification? Check. Survivalist storms? We’ve had two hit the tallest peaks in the Caribbean and STRENGTHEN after doing so. You a person who loves strengthening systems on approach? Check check check check check check. Preseason named storm? Yep. Needle in a haystack storm? Paulette making landfall on Bermuda. Slow moving epic rain producer? Sally. Ridiculous storm surge, thank you Laura. I mean, we’ve had everything for everyone! Except when we had three years in a row with a cat 5 at landfall, anything not being a cat 5 at landfall will be a bust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Except when we had three years in a row with a cat 5 at landfall, anything not being a cat 5 at landfall will be a bust. I’d take a cat 4 so long as the rfq is measurable and it landfalls during daylight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 16, 2020 Author Share Posted September 16, 2020 So yeah, something for everybody except the people who believe ACE should be the only standard (which it should be done away with IMO) ACE isn't the only standard though. People who only consider it to be are foolish. Landfalls are critical data. Cost is important data. Number of storms are critical data. However, ACE shouldn't be done away with as it is an important climatological tool for measuring and comparing basins. Also, it's a great data filter for finding the most active seasons. It's no coincidence that seasons with the highest ACE had numerous powerful TCs beyond just having a high total number of TCs. You also usually find some real long-tracking beasts as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, Windspeed said: ACE isn't the only standard though. People who only consider it to be are foolish. Landfalls are critical data. Cost is important data. Number of storms are critical data. However, ACE shouldn't be done away with as it is an important climatological tool for measuring and comparing basins. Also, it's a great data filter for finding the most active seasons. It's no coincidence that seasons with the highest ACE had numerous powerful TCs beyond just having a high total number of TCs. You also usually find some real long-tracking beasts as well. ACE is cool until you waste a month tracking hurricane/typhoon Ioke and realize you could have literally been doing anything else with your life. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 ACE is a useful tool but it certainly doesn’t tell the whole story. We’ve had extremely high ACE years with barely any impacts and low ace years that we’re high impact. It also doesn’t do late blooming storms justice, like Laura. Also, you can have 1 or 2 storms produce basically an entire seasons worth of ace and then have a slow rest of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: ACE is a useful tool but it certainly doesn’t tell the whole story. We’ve had extremely high ACE years with barely any impacts and low ace years that we’re high impact. It also doesn’t do late blooming storms justice, like Laura. Also, you can have 1 or 2 storms produce basically an entire seasons worth of ace and then have a slow rest of the season. Accumulated IKE/insured losses=seasonal power index from a US-centric perspective. That would be something I could get with. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 7 hours ago, turtlehurricane said: West Caribbean will be crazy going into October. Florida will be lucky to not see some serious threats with the way this season is going. We have the force field going on for most of the peninsula sans Irma I am curious what Oct brings. GFS long range hints at lowering pressures but it's always there on the 384. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 34 minutes ago, TradeWinds said: We have the force field going on for most of the peninsula sans Irma I am curious what Oct brings. GFS long range hints at lowering pressures but it's always there on the 384. As usual, there is a stupid amount of heat content in the western Caribbean. FL is due for a repeat of King or a cleaner Wilma. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 3 hours ago, the ghost of leroy said: As usual, there is a stupid amount of heat content in the western Caribbean. FL is due for a repeat of King or a cleaner Wilma. Well 00z fantasy land has the Western Caribbean storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 17, 2020 Author Share Posted September 17, 2020 A low pressure system over the far eastern Atlantic, 99L, is transitioning more warm core with time. It would of course be fitting for 2020 if a Subtropical Storm grabs the last seasonal name prior to the Greek alphabet. lol... Perhaps 90L can get its act together in short order today and snatch the name away. The race is on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 18 minutes ago, Windspeed said: A low pressure system over the far eastern Atlantic, 99L, is transitioning more warm core with time. It would of course be fitting for 2020 if a Subtropical Storm grabs the last seasonal name prior to the Greek alphabet. lol... Perhaps 90L can get its act together in short order today and snatch the name away. The race is on... Haven’t even looked at this. Judging by that sat shot the race may already be won... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hc7 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 18 hours ago, the ghost of leroy said: No we haven’t. A season can’t be epic without a sub 915 storm. It’s a rule. Well, don’t look now but you may just get what you wished for, Teddy is looking like he’s got as good of a shot as any so far to approaching that sort of level in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 17, 2020 Author Share Posted September 17, 2020 Looks like the MJO will transition to a brief suppressive regime next week as an unfavorable CCKW swings across the N. Atlantic Basin. However, that is followed by another enhancing CCKW leading into October. Therefore, things could get quiet briefly following Teddy and the potential GOM system followed by another uptick towards the end of the month. Of course it is important to remember that positive (red) MJO regimes are not as unfavorable during peak weeks as TCG can still occur in the Caribbean, GOM and MDR as overall surface pressures tend to have decreased versus mid-Summer months. Pockets of favorable upper 200 hPa vorticity can still be obtained over random areas, especially with lacking EPAC TC activity. In addition, the MDR has tended to moisten somewhat with a backdown in pressure heights and 700 hPa easterlies. So we could still see something pop up east of the Antilles as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 i can't believe Vicky is still a thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 The GFS and Para have been hinting at a Caribbean storm at the end of the month. The 06z Para shows it crossing Florida and riding up the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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