the ghost of leroy Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: The 12z Euro has Rene meandering around just north of the MDR, which leads to the new system getting sucked up into the weakness, so no threat to the Caribbean. Sounds about right. People need to realize a crowded map full of meandering lows is not the recipe for a CONUS landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Gotta clear the deck or have something pop closer to home. Anything meaningful developing in the central or eastern Atlantic right now is recurving IMO. Way too many escape routes. That’s why I can’t put hope in the African cherry that is supposed to become a threat. Look at all the shit out ahead of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 40 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: Sounds about right. People need to realize a crowded map full of meandering lows is not the recipe for a CONUS landfall. We dont even know where they will go. Lets just sit back and model watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Gotta clear the deck or have something pop closer to home. Anything meaningful developing in the central or eastern Atlantic right now is recurving IMO. Way too many escape routes. this is why have more storms out there will increase the chance of a hit in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: this is why have more storms out there will increase the chance of a hit in the future. This is why I troll. Christ. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 12z euro was the most disappointing run of the seasons it showed 4 tcs all duds and all fish storms. Lets watch sheared messes dance around the central Atlantic, before inevitably recurving towards Europe. Sounds like lots of fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: This is why I troll. Christ. Throwing in the towel with alot of lows running around is stupid. People also like to track anything Why are you here anyway ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Amped said: 12z euro was the most disappointing run of the seasons it showed 4 tcs all duds and all fish storms. Lets watch sheared messes dance around the central Atlantic, before inevitably recurving towards Europe. Sounds like lots of fun. how did the euro do with the past storms ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: how did the euro do with the past storms ? It nailed sandy and winter storm nemo 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: how did the euro do with the past storms ? Read an article recently that compared models for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Euro was the worst in all lead time categories even less than 72 hrs. Not saying it will not verify but the track record is off this year so far. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 hour ago, TradeWinds said: Read an article recently that compared models for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Euro was the worst in all lead time categories even less than 72 hrs. Not saying it will not verify but the track record is off this year so far. Can you post a link? I know it's been struggling with TCG but I would find it a bit hard to believe the routinely best track model is now the worst this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 2 hours ago, TradeWinds said: Read an article recently that compared models for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Euro was the worst in all lead time categories even less than 72 hrs. Not saying it will not verify but the track record is off this year so far. It did struggle with Isasis and Fay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 Invest 95L 95L.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.10N.25W 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 11, 2020 Author Share Posted September 11, 2020 ECMWF ensemble consensus is still the best for tracking, period. Sure, they still miss. But there is a reason we still chew nails awaiting their rums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 25 minutes ago, Windspeed said: ECMWF ensemble consensus is still the best for tracking, period. Sure, they still miss. But there is a reason we still chew nails awaiting their rums. What good is it when half the ensembles show a recurve in the middle of the Atlantic and half show a monster storm in the Caribbean heading to Florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 11, 2020 Author Share Posted September 11, 2020 What good is it when half the ensembles show a recurve in the middle of the Atlantic and half show a monster storm in the Caribbean heading to Florida?You got something better? That's the rub. Even the best model guidance is sometimes difficult in its usefulness. That's where good old fashioned synoptic-scale forecasting helps. And that can still be off. There's a reason those folks at the NHC are the cream of the crop. Yet they're still not perfect. Neither is the best modeling based on the most powerful super CPU clusters. Hopefully you can just afford some patience and let it play out / unfold. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Kane Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 12uz slides95L lower latitude favors now monster cat 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Sam Kane said: 12uz slides90L lower latitude favors now monster cat 5 Yes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: ECMWF ensemble consensus is still the best for tracking, period. Sure, they still miss. But there is a reason we still chew nails awaiting their rums. Send some of those rums over here to Afghanistan, please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 4 hours ago, the ghost of leroy said: It nailed sandy and winter storm nemo Lmao...now that was good!! And Thats when it was a really good model. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 3 hours ago, OSUmetstud said: Can you post a link? I know it's been struggling with TCG but I would find it a bit hard to believe the routinely best track model is now the worst this season. I'll have to do a search and find it. It was in one of these threads. I believe the Laura thread or this one. UKMET was leading if I remember. One reason models might be off this year is due to less input resulting from covid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, TradeWinds said: I'll have to do a search and find it. It was in one of these threads. I believe the Laura thread or this one. UKMET was leading if I remember. One reason models might be off this year is due to less input resulting from covid. UKMET was the best with Laura. I posted the Albany stats in that thread. GFS outperformed ECMWF for Laura, not sure if that's true for the season as a whole though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 33 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: UKMET was the best with Laura. I posted the Albany stats in that thread. GFS outperformed ECMWF for Laura, not sure if that's true for the season as a whole though. That must have been it! Thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 28 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: More than track (which has certainly had issues) I think the euro has really struggled with intensity. This current MDR mess aside, I think I’ve seen it miss TC genesis and under forecast intensification. Isaías, Hanna, and Nana all come to mind. Yep agreed. Weird that it had a bonafide hurricane with Paulette on the 00z run last night near Bermuda but it has since kinda gone back to a middling tropical storm type low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 GFS just north of Barbados this run. Think it goes right into Dominica but it's hard to tell. Also it's showing a Mathew like blob to the east of the storm for those interested in convective blobs. This time it eventually develops into another Tropical Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 06Z GFS sends it OTS on this run. Makes me happy here in Southestern NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 52 minutes ago, senc30 said: 06Z GFS sends it OTS on this run. Makes me happy here in Southestern NC Euro also develops it but its OTS. Going to be a long week of tracking ahead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 The storm before the storm that the models were once showing hitting the coast creates a weakness which allows the next storm to go out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 Looks pretty active to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 Fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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