MJO812 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 12z eps is really active moving forward 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 18Z continues the pattern of every other run being more active. The weak storm at 12z in the se carib is now a monster east of the virgin islands, and paulette which had dissipated at 12 z gets trapped north of bermuda. Notice now paulas remains are nw of bermuda instead of ne and the set up for the ridge is for it to be stronger. the monster east of the virgins needs to be watched 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 Big difference in the initial NHC projected track of the wave about to come off of Africa. It looks to have gone from a potential Caribbean cruiser to a potential fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 Umm. No. There is no NHC "projected track" for waves that aren't even invests. Just a blob they scribble on the 5 day outlook. Gosh, it curves a little north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, Derecho! said: Umm. No. There is no NHC "projected track" for waves that aren't even invests. Just a blob they scribble on the 5 day outlook. Gosh, it curves a little north. I was just comparing on an apples to apples basis the same scribbled blob from the previous update. The little north curve can make a major difference downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 zzzzzzzz 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 I hope it makes such a big difference that us here in SE NC never have to pay any attention to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: zzzzzzzz This season is such a low energy bust. There's not even been a decent fish storm with nice satellite presentation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 54 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: This season is such a low energy bust. There's not even been a decent fish storm with nice satellite presentation. How dare you say that? The peak hasn’t even happened yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: This season is such a low energy bust. There's not even been a decent fish storm with nice satellite presentation. Just goes to show seasonal forecasting has a long way to go. I was reading the NHC disco on little paul and they mentioned how "Parched" the atmosphere is. everything is parched and sheared even though the east pac continues to cool. I still think sept20-oct 10 might offer something interesting but i also think oct 10 is about the end of the season. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 31 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Just goes to show seasonal forecasting has a long way to go. I was reading the NHC disco on little paul and they mentioned how "Parched" the atmosphere is. everything is parched and sheared even though the east pac continues to cool. I still think sept20-oct 10 might offer something interesting but i also think oct 10 is about the end of the season. Sandy happened after October 10th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 23 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: Sandy happened after October 10th Perfect storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 12 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Perfect storm too. Oh, how could I forget the perfect storm. It was so perfect that it even had a crappy unnamed hurricane inside of it. That’s how we know it’s so perfect. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 It’s the Hype...without the hype it’s not as much of a disappointment. But when the big guns are telling ya to watch out...and then things aren’t lining up so well, it makes you realize that we don’t know as much as we may think? Just like last winter in SNE...it was being forecast as a potential humdinger, and it was a full on Ratter. The combo of the hype and then the Rat is a double whammy lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 12Z GFS just said the hell with it and don't want to play ball today! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 Gfs para mean is lite up like a Christmas tree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 2 hours ago, WinterWolf said: It’s the Hype...without the hype it’s not as much of a disappointment. But when the big guns are telling ya to watch out...and then things aren’t lining up so well, it makes you realize that we don’t know as much as we may think? Just like last winter in SNE...it was being forecast as a potential humdinger, and it was a full on Ratter. The combo of the hype and then the Rat is a double whammy lol. Shhhh...... 88 is watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 24 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Shhhh...... 88 is watching. What hype ? Its only September 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 No US landfalls through day 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, Amped said: No US landfalls through day 10. Brutal Until the next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: What hype ? Its only September 9 Tomorrow is peak and it’s all downhill from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 I see this year as a late bloomer. Late September through October could be very active with a rather late onset of Nina conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 Uh oh. 18Z GFS hours 300 on takes Sally or Teddie to Miami 960mb then north to Cape Hatteras and over NYC. Is it a lock? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 No US landfalls? I guess you arent counting the 18Z GFS with a major over the US virgin islands and a building positive NAO which means if that monster is still there in 8 days it aint OTS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 18 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Uh oh. 18Z GFS hours 300 on takes Sally or Teddie to Miami 960mb then north to Cape Hatteras and over NYC. Is it a lock? Where are you seeing this? The GFS is loading super slow for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Where are you seeing this? The GFS is loading super slow for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 34 minutes ago, ldub23 said: No US landfalls? I guess you arent counting the 18Z GFS with a major over the US virgin islands and a building positive NAO which means if that monster is still there in 8 days it aint OTS. That would be the one to watch. The other one near Bermuda should be a nice wave maker if it gets to major status. PNA expected to tank which means strong ridging building out east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 7 hours ago, ldub23 said: Just goes to show seasonal forecasting has a long way to go. I was reading the NHC disco on little paul and they mentioned how "Parched" the atmosphere is. everything is parched and sheared even though the east pac continues to cool. I still think sept20-oct 10 might offer something interesting but i also think oct 10 is about the end of the season. Surely that is a divergence worth investigating. We all know that water vapor is the preeminent greenhouse 'gas', so a parched atmosphere just seems curious given the well above average temperatures we've seen. Does it mean the winds off Africa are unusually dry? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 6 hours ago, WinterWolf said: It’s the Hype...without the hype it’s not as much of a disappointment. Hype > Disappointment 60 years old and whether it is watching weather (hurricanes or blizzards), sports, news, going to parties or concerts, even waking up and checking email, it is the rocket fuel that powers the motivation vehicles every day of my life. Give me crazy highs and horrible lows, spare me mediocrity please. Rather be excited about possibilities that never occur, than apathetic about anything. Waiting for that giant beautiful perfect Cat 5 spinning in the Gulf of Mexico this year but never making landfall or knocking out anyone's power for more than a couple hours. Yet we all feel it from Texas to Key West and have big waves and personal stories to tell. Imagine the Hype > Disappointment while these forums and chasers go crazy with posts! Oh yea! Bring it on, Hype first, then at the last minute Disappointment (and very sincere relief). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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