rclab Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: I’m used to it. It’s garbage. The city or the threats? As always ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 16 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: I’m used to it. It’s garbage. You got a cat 4 landfall into SW Louisiana in August and you still think the season is meh. Sorry that Laura wasn't deadly enough for ya... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You got a cat 4 landfall into SW Louisiana in August and you still think the season is meh. Sorry that Laura wasn't deadly enough for ya... Laura was the monkeys on a typewriter of this season. I’m not handing out cookies because 1/17th of the storms were good for 18 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 8, 2020 Author Share Posted September 8, 2020 Four consecutive ENS runs with overwhelming support for a low latitude CV hurricane next week. Paulette and Rene both recurve. Paulette feels the WAR somewhat and recurves late. That may need to be watched for Bermuda. At any rate, the WAR is modeled with good ensemble support following exit and lift of the ECONUS shortwave. If the next AEW is as organized as modeled, it's going to have a shot at running the entirety of the MDR without a TUTT in place. There might be some backside upper influences of a stronger Paulette in the mid-range. However, with an EATL cutoff, most downstream upper 200 hPa flow would likely divert eastward. Simply put, next week may very well be prime time for a legitimate long-tracking major hurricane if it's going to be a reality this season. Additionally, the WPAC is entering a period of quiescence. Combining both quiet WPAC and EPAC basins, the N. Atlantic's upper tropospheric setup for the next 2-3 weeks likely supports several long-trackers. Additionally, the MJO is in a phase that is more supportive of eastern MDR development and would favor TCG becoming more frequent east of 50ºW. You do not need 200 hPa vorticity anomalies in the WATL if you already have established westward tracking TCs. Their anticyclones will take care of themselves barring negative TUTT/PV interaction. So as we progress through the next 2-3 weeks, tracking patterns are going to be key here. Where are the shortwaves versus ridges and what are their timings with potential TCs? We're going to have several recurves, no doubt. But if a few TCs form at low latitudes or time as a trough kicks out, I'd say the Antilles, Caribbean, Bahamas and SECONUS will have several threats by the time we enter October. Another thing to keep in mind is the pattern setup and MDR systems may last through mid-October. The past five years have seen later dates in MDR development versus climatological mean. Considering that we have a strengthening La Niña and positive AMO, this year may continue that trend. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 24 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: Laura was the monkeys on a typewriter of this season. I’m not handing out cookies because 1/17th of the storms were good for 18 hours. We recently went seven consecutive years without a US landfalling hurricane. How you can sit here and complain about this season is beyond absurd. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: We recently went seven consecutive years without a US landfalling hurricane. How you can sit here and complain about this season is beyond absurd. I complained about those too. It’s called being consistent. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 I complained about those too. It’s called being consistent. Consistency can be a bad thing at timesSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: Consistency can be a bad thing at times Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk My parents raised me better than to be a flip flopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: We recently went seven consecutive years without a US landfalling hurricane. How you can sit here and complain about this season is beyond absurd. This has been mentioned many times already but the problem was the crazy high pre- and mid-season forecasts hyping everyone up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 21 minutes ago, cptcatz said: This has been mentioned many times already but the problem was the crazy high pre- and mid-season forecasts hyping everyone up. We still have six weeks of prime season left. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 12z GFS with the dirty side of 959 mb Sally going into Tampa Bay... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 Well, the 12Z GFS landfalled in Southwest Florida on September 22nd. That was an interesting run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 8, 2020 Author Share Posted September 8, 2020 12z GFS with the dirty side of 959 mb Sally going into Tampa Bay...If that run were to verify, the hypothetical Caribbean/EGOM system would've been Teddy. The GFS does a weird monsoonal split and breaks off the upper axis first that becomes Sally. It then allows the southwestern extension to close off into Teddy and it gets captured by strong ridging / easterly flow. Sally merges with CATL troughing. Teddy drives into the CONUS. Meh...looks gimmicky and likely to not model that way in future op runs with any consistency. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 Euro shows a few storms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 35 minutes ago, senc30 said: Well, the 12Z GFS landfalled in Southwest Florida on September 22nd. That was an interesting run. I would call that more central west Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 Just now, thunderbolt said: I would call that more central west Florida See, when you say central west Florida I think of the panhandle between Panama City and Tallahassee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 20 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: See, when you say central west Florida I think of the panhandle between Panama City and Tallahassee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 Just now, thunderbolt said: 20 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: See, when you say central west Florida I think of the panhandle between Panama City and Tallahassee. 20 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: See, when you say central west Florida I think of the panhandle between Panama City and Tallahassee. The way I look at it is Naples is South Florida Tampa Bay Central Florida Tallahassee is North Florida at least according to Latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 38 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: The way I look at it is Naples is South Florida Tampa Bay Central Florida Tallahassee is North Florida at least according to Latitude Everybody who lives here knows Tampa is Central Florida. Your post is correct. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 4 hours ago, NJwx85 said: We recently went seven consecutive years without a US landfalling hurricane. How you can sit here and complain about this season is beyond absurd. I agree with the overall premise of this post, but am unaware of a time in modern records where we "went seven consecutive years without a U.S. landfalling hurricane " Suspect you meant a "major" hurricane...where the U.S. mainland experienced a remarkable twelve year drought of those. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said: I agree with the overall premise of this post, but am unaware of a time in modern records where we "went seven consecutive years without a U.S. landfalling hurricane " Suspect you meant a "major" hurricane...where the U.S. mainland experienced a remarkable twelve year drought of those. I stand corrected. It was 11 years without a major hurricane strike and a seven year stretch with four landfalling hurricanes, if you include Sandy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 Euro and GFS this afternoon both coming back to the reality of 2020. Alot of weak sauce with conditions rather hostile. Might not get my major well east of bermuda if there is another one. Now they both give poor paulette a miserable sheared dry death and conditions look horrid west of 50 and rather marginal east of 50. West of 50 thats a picture you expect to see in the 1982 or 83 or 94 or 87, or 72 season. Classic el nino look. Poor Paulette is about to get the dry air/shear combo. It already has the dry prunish look. And given the predictions of Hyper-diaper Super-Duper conditions this season this isnt the picture i would expect to see on sept 08. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 2 hours ago, Windspeed said: 2 hours ago, cptcatz said: 12z GFS with the dirty side of 959 mb Sally going into Tampa Bay... If that run were to verify, the hypothetical Caribbean/EGOM system would've been Teddy. The GFS does a weird monsoonal split and breaks off the upper axis first that becomes Sally. It then allows the southwestern extension to close off into Teddy and it gets captured by strong ridging / easterly flow. Sally merges with CATL troughing. Teddy drives into the CONUS. Meh...looks gimmicky and likely to not model that way in future op runs with any consistency. A few EPS members have the exact same scenario although it evolves differently up front. I agree though the ops will change a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 With satellites and a generous naming group of forecasters 1926 might have had 35/20/12. Average of 20 ace per storm. 1893 as well. We are really insulting 2005 in a big way by making comparisons to this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 51 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Euro and GFS this afternoon both coming back to the reality of 2020. Alot of weak sauce with conditions rather hostile. Might not get my major well east of bermuda if there is another one. Now they both give poor paulette a miserable sheared dry death and conditions look horrid west of 50 and rather marginal east of 50. West of 50 thats a picture you expect to see in the 1982 or 83 or 94 or 87, or 72 season. Classic el nino look. Poor Paulette is about to get the dry air/shear combo. It already has the dry prunish look. And given the predictions of Hyper-diaper Super-Duper conditions this season this isnt the picture i would expect to see on sept 08. If it were El Nino the Pac would be going crazy...I've been counseling patience the last few weeks but even I have to start wondering now...where are the stadiums (apart from Laura's last few hours)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: If it were El Nino the Pac would be going crazy...I've been counseling patience the last few weeks but even I have to start wondering now...where are the stadiums (apart from Laura's last few hours)? Im just saying the atlantic west of 50 is classic el nino. Even rene looks dried up though maybe as it turns north it will get stronger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 Just pointing out that Laura was significantly stronger upon CONUS landfall than every single one of 2005's US threats 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 1 hour ago, tiger_deF said: Just pointing out that Laura was significantly stronger upon CONUS landfall than every single one of 2005's US threats By wind speed yes, by pressure no (Katrina was 920 mb at landfall). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 5 hours ago, Windspeed said: If that run were to verify, the hypothetical Caribbean/EGOM system would've been Teddy. Teddy is destined to be a Texas storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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