2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Floydbuster]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

Is the 1033 high moving to the East in this? If so, that would be a nice graze on the outer banks and then a strike in the Mid Atlantic.

I was thinking a NC landfall and then out to sea, but yeah. Looks interesting.

[MJO812]

Latest Euro

[yoda]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Latest Euro

Nice major recurve

[ldub23]

2 hours ago, yoda said:

Nice major recurve

Closer than it  has been while the GFS basically shows nothing for  post  peak other than 3 weak struggling far east recurves.

[MJO812]

So NHC highlighted a lemon just off the mid atlantic coast. Icon now has this.

[Jackstraw]

  Just my armchair opinion as we move into the peak over the next week but I've said it before this season.  The pattern over the Conus since about mid July has been anything but normal.  Up here in the lower great lakes where I am we've had 4 nights below 50 and a string of sub 80 degree days in August, that's kinda nuts.  The trough anomalies - placement, strength and depth have been consistent for the last 6 weeks, consistently from the upper midwest down through TX.  We're moving into a similar pattern again over the next 10 days.  We do have a bit of weaker ridging over the Atlantic currently but there's signals in the ensembles for that to be temporary and begin to build a stronger WAR by the end of the week.  Anything that develops off of Africa quickly will more than likely be shark food.  But weaker waves that would be less likely to feel any weakness in the ridging prior to 50W could very well roll into a favorable environment and steering to threaten the states  I especially think the GOM is far from done if this Conus pattern persists and we possibly could see an abnormal increase in the number of GOM storms by seasons end.  As WxWatcher007 has pointed out the tepid west pacific season just hasn't been energizing the northern jet and this has enabled the pattern over the Conus to be rather stale, allowing some rather stout stubborn ridging in the SW and deeper slow moving troughing over the central US.  If we don't get some west pac energy rounding into the northern jet over the conus we could still get into these slow pattern locks like we've seen. 

  Just based on that rather weak analysis lol, to me, I think the chances of any storms that either make it to or begin organizing past 50 or 60W and south of 20N the possibility of any affecting the states is higher than normal unless we see a substantial pattern change over the Conus. Where the troughing is currently settling it's going to be able to draw anything north into the GOM or pull something into the EC.  It would be nice if the troughs were digging 3 or 4 hundred miles farther E providing a shield for the EC and driving southern storms west.  West coast of Fl.'s season is coming up in a few weeks, end of Sept. into Oct.  If the pattern shift waits until then it could get interesting.  I'm not a landfall wisher by any means, just my uneducated guess moving forward.

  And one more thing, where the hell are the TUTT's this year?  Anyway sorry for the long post, takes me a while to form an armchair opinion nowadays 

[TradeWinds]

22 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

  Just my armchair opinion as we move into the peak over the next week but I've said it before this season.  The pattern over the Conus since about mid July has been anything but normal.  Up here in the lower great lakes where I am we've had 4 nights below 50 and a string of sub 80 degree days in August, that's kinda nuts.  The trough anomalies - placement, strength and depth have been consistent for the last 6 weeks, consistently from the upper midwest down through TX.  We're moving into a similar pattern again over the next 10 days.  We do have a bit of weaker ridging over the Atlantic currently but there's signals in the ensembles for that to be temporary and begin to build a stronger WAR by the end of the week.  Anything that develops off of Africa quickly will more than likely be shark food.  But weaker waves that would be less likely to feel any weakness in the ridging prior to 50W could very well roll into a favorable environment and steering to threaten the states  I especially think the GOM is far from done if this Conus pattern persists and we possibly could see an abnormal increase in the number of GOM storms by seasons end.  As WxWatcher007 has pointed out the tepid west pacific season just hasn't been energizing the northern jet and this has enabled the pattern over the Conus to be rather stale, allowing some rather stout stubborn ridging in the SW and deeper slow moving troughing over the central US.  If we don't get some west pac energy rounding into the northern jet over the conus we could still get into these slow pattern locks like we've seen. 

  Just based on that rather weak analysis lol, to me, I think the chances of any storms that either make it to or begin organizing past 50 or 60W and south of 20N the possibility of any affecting the states is higher than normal unless we see a substantial pattern change over the Conus. Where the troughing is currently settling it's going to be able to draw anything north into the GOM or pull something into the EC.  It would be nice if the troughs were digging 3 or 4 hundred miles farther E providing a shield for the EC and driving southern storms west.  West coast of Fl.'s season is coming up in a few weeks, end of Sept. into Oct.  If the pattern shift waits until then it could get interesting.  I'm not a landfall wisher by any means, just my uneducated guess moving forward.

  And one more thing, where the hell are the TUTT's this year?  Anyway sorry for the long post, takes me a while to form an armchair opinion nowadays 

It appears a CCKW will pass 3rd week Sep thru early Oct. The Gulf and western Caribbean could spark but no guarantee. Anybody know if those are factored into models?

[cptcatz]

Still a long way away but I'm seeing a lot of signs for the next wave (would be Sally) to be a low rider and possibly make it across the Atlantic. 

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Still a long way away but I'm seeing a lot of signs for the next wave (would be Sally) to be a low rider and possibly make it across the Atlantic. 

It’s been on the ensembles for weeks.

[cptcatz]

19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It’s been on the ensembles for weeks.

Right, hence the "seeing a lot of signs", yet haven't seen much discussion about it here so I brought it up.

[Prospero]

5 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

West coast of Fl.'s season is coming up in a few weeks, end of Sept. into Oct.  If the pattern shift waits until then it could get interesting.

Most of us here on the Gulf Coast of FL never assume a season is over until its official. We relax at Thanksgiving, but even then do not take for granted its over.

[Floydbuster]

I always assume that a Miami Cat 4-type hurricane isn't very likely after September 20th. Hurricane King in 1950 was a Cat 4 in October, and Hurricane Matthew came close October 2016. Of course we had Hurricane Michael strike the Panhandle as a strengthening Cat 5 in October, but that was likely an anomaly of historic proportions.

The Great Miami Hurricane and the Lake Okechobee Hurricane struck on September 18th and September 16th. There is still that window for a major SE Florida strike. Watch the wave leaving in a few days. 

[ldub23]

GFS a  bit  more  ominous. Shows a disturbance that  could get trapped  under  building ridge  over the  Northeast. SSW of  Bermuda

[ldub23]

06 GFS continues the  ominous trend. The set  up favors the ridge to continue to build. Low  over  alaska and what  might  be a  positive NAO.

[Windspeed]

[dan11295]

Odds we go into Greek letters this year? Assuming we get the Rene shortly that leaves only 4 names left.

[cptcatz]

Euro goes crazy in the 12z run

[Vice-Regent]

How is the 12z EPS doing? Hearing it's a bit nutty like the operational.

[ldub23]

18z GFS gets a  major  cane  much further west.

 

[MJO812]

[Prospero]

19 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

I always assume that a Miami Cat 4-type hurricane isn't very likely after September 20th.

I wouldn't dismiss the possibility, especially with the changes we may be seeing.

[the ghost of leroy]

[TriPol]

1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said:

???

[MJO812]

0z Euro

[Orangeburgwx]

0z Euro

Ridges are overdone on the ECMWF that far out, so good chance that one over the virgin islands misses the GA to the north. So that will be Paulette going extratropical, Tammy, Vicky, and Wilfred (if 94L gets named, aka Sally -not shown there-) which means whatever forms after that will be Greek

 

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

 

 

 

[rclab]

9 hours ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Great photo. The straws are interesting. I guess they are a safer alternative to the chug a lug. Used in a glass they would certainly curb the incidence of foam beard. As always....

[NJwx85]

I'm not convinced yet that the future Cape Verde hurricane is definitely going to be a recurve. 

for starters, it appears to be a significant threat to the islands in 7-10 days.

The GFS then swings through a shallow trough around the 19th which supposedly weakens the ridge. Again, not sure I buy that, especially given the massive dome of high pressure moving through the Eastern US at the same time.

Thereafter, it looks to be steered by the trough coming down from Canada, and who's to say that it doesn't get picked up rather than booted OTS? 

Sure, the odds favor OTS. But this year, almost every storm that has made it West of 60W has found a way to hit land.

[the ghost of leroy]

13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm not convinced yet that the future Cape Verde hurricane is definitely going to be a recurve. 

for starters, it appears to be a significant threat to the islands in 7-10 days.

The GFS then swings through a shallow trough around the 19th which supposedly weakens the ridge. Again, not sure I buy that, especially given the massive dome of high pressure moving through the Eastern US at the same time.

Thereafter, it looks to be steered by the trough coming down from Canada, and who's to say that it doesn't get picked up rather than booted OTS? 

Sure, the odds favor OTS. But this year, almost every storm that has made it West of 60W has found a way to hit land.

How brave of you to posit a scenario where this could hit the east coast. 

[NJwx85]

34 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

How brave of you to posit a scenario where this could hit the east coast. 

Better get used to NYC getting more hurricane threats than Miami.  

[the ghost of leroy]

26 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Better get used to NYC getting more hurricane threats than Miami.  

I’m used to it. It’s garbage.