Windspeed Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 Ensembles and operationals into the mid-range are hinting at an outbreak in the MDR. Two to three long-tracking hurricanes, especially given any left-behind stalls would increase seasonal ACE substantially regardless of any land threats. We'll definitely have to watch for anything that might remain shallow and develop near 60°W with the amplified NW ridge could capture and drive a potential system into the Antilles, Bahamas or ECONUS. And as[mention=9730]WxWatcher007[/mention] allluded to, could be a surprise in the GOM and potential threat with an amplified pattern in place. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 People will be screaming BUST if those end up a bunch of fish storms because of course they will 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 1 minute ago, cheese007 said: People will be screaming BUST if those end up a bunch of fish storms because of course they will See how the models now have a few storms. People shouldn't call bust looking at the long range op models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Just now, cheese007 said: People will be screaming BUST if those end up a bunch of fish storms because of course they will If that ridging is in place in the Canadian Maritimes there are not going to be a lot of recurves 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Individual storm threads: damn the models suck, they have been performing awfully, especially in the mid and long range main tropical thread: look at these models! 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 Individual storm threads: damn the models suck, they have been performing awfully, especially in the mid and long range main tropical thread: look at these models! lol... yeah. I am not innocent of this. But unfortunately it's all we've got, good or bad. There is no doubt the operationals in general have struggled this season missing TCGs until they're already occurring in real time. Now if they miss on actual modeled TCGs and none or very few actually pan out IRL, well then... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 17 minutes ago, Windspeed said: lol... yeah. I am not innocent of this. But unfortunately it's all we've got, good or bad. There is no doubt the operationals in general have struggled this season missing TCGs until they're already occurring in real time. Now if they miss on actual modeled TCGs and none or very few actually pan out IRL, well then... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 31 minutes ago, Windspeed said: lol... yeah. I am not innocent of this. But unfortunately it's all we've got, good or bad. There is no doubt the operationals in general have struggled this season missing TCGs until they're already occurring in real time. Now if they miss on actual modeled TCGs and none or very few actually pan out IRL, well then... You’re right. All we have to talk about is models. I just think it’s funny, that’s all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Oh it’s hilarious, but they’ve sucked in one direction. They weren’t showing genesis. Now that they are, and in a more emphatic way, maybe we’re about to be off to the races. Or not It does look like there is going to be a lot of activity in the next 2 weeks plus. The question is where they end up going. To my untrained eye based on the Maritime High it would appear that any threat to the EC would be from the Carolinas or Mid Atlantic northward. Is my thinking correct on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: So it depends. Generally yes, if you have that kind of a robust high in the maritime region/western Atlantic that’s going to be an EC threat pattern. Where specifically is likely to depend on the exact strength and orientation of that ridge. However, the placement of a low matters too. If there’s a system trapped under the ridge in a place like the Bahamas or western/central Caribbean, that’s an EC/GOM threat. If there’s a system in the central Atlantic on the eastern edge of a ridge, it can still escape OTS because there’s likely to be a weakness there. These things aren’t going to be resolved in the near term, but as we’ve seen over the course of the season, ridging has been strong and persistent. Thanks so much for your response 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Models are all over the place but the Euro likely has the best handle on things. We'll see if there's any consistency today, of course anything beyond a few days is a total crapshoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Honestly, who gives a damn what the seasonal ACE ends up being if most of the activity stays out to sea. I think the majority would agree that a category 2 hurricane making landfall in the US is a lot more interesting from a hobbyist standpoint than a category 4 hurricane re curving way out to sea. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Honestly, who gives a damn what the seasonal ACE ends up being if most of the activity stays out to sea. I think the majority would agree that a category 2 hurricane making landfall in the US is a lot more interesting from a hobbyist standpoint than a category 4 hurricane re curving way out to sea. Absolutely Agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 The people who would be getting their houses destroyed on the coast probably wouldn't agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Choo Choo 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Choo Choo I was just looking at this. The GFS doesn't show it like that but the EURO sure sends the trains down the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 15 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: The people who would be getting their houses destroyed on the coast probably wouldn't agree We have to think about more than the coast. Iowans with no connection to the ocean got derechoed and they must not be forgotten. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 #throwbackthursday #bigirm. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Y’all ready for another super duper ACE producer? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Makes me laugh when you see everyone freaking out about an underwhelming season. Then I check the NHC website and see 5 different storms or potential storms they are tracking. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 4, 2020 Author Share Posted September 4, 2020 Honestly, who gives a damn what the seasonal ACE ends up being if most of the activity stays out to sea. I think the majority would agree that a category 2 hurricane making landfall in the US is a lot more interesting from a hobbyist standpoint than a category 4 hurricane re curving way out to sea.I mean part of an active season, especially hyperactive is your general September central Atlantic hurricanes. They usually produce a big chunk of ACE and most of the hyperactive years have them. I just enjoy tracking, attempting forecasts and observing the outcomes. Whether they are land threats or not matters little to me. Though I would prefer they avoid populated areas. A big CV hurricane is my favorite even if it threatens nothing but shipping. Aside from Dorian, Lorenzo was an incredible storm to track as well last year. Perhaps we'll get a few beasts over the next month. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: 7 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Honestly, who gives a damn what the seasonal ACE ends up being if most of the activity stays out to sea. I think the majority would agree that a category 2 hurricane making landfall in the US is a lot more interesting from a hobbyist standpoint than a category 4 hurricane re curving way out to sea. I mean part of an active season, especially hyperactive is your general September central Atlantic hurricanes. They usually produce a big chunk of ACE and most of the hyperactive years have them. I just enjoy tracking, attempting forecasts and observing the outcomes. Whether they are land threats or not matters little to me. Though I would prefer they avoid populated areas. A big CV hurricane is my favorite even if it threatens nothing but shipping. Aside from Dorian, Lorenzo was an incredible storm to track as well last year. Perhaps we'll get a few beasts over the next month. Yeah I'm with you. I would rather see a monster cat 4 or 5 storm that remains out to see, than mayhem/destruction related to landfall. This is why I find the east pac season fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Michael is my ideal hurricane. Fast moving, landfall at 90 degrees, in an area thats not too populated, in the middle of the day, clear eye/intensifying into landfall, in the US, the list goes on. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 I already look back on this hurricane season as memorable. There were hardly any lulls, even early storms like Cristobal and Gonzalo were exciting enough to track. Hurricane Hanna was a nasty landfall in Texas in July with a pressure in the 970s. Hurricane Isaias surprised us with the last minute intensification before striking North Carolina and causing impressive storm surge in Myrtle Beach. Then we had a devastating high-end Cat 4 landfall on the North Gulf Coast in August. To me, that's a memorable hurricane season, and I think we likely have a few more memorable storms to go. I just hope we don't exhaust the name list too quickly, who the hell wants to track a late-season Caribbean storm named "Eta". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 This would keep us all busy... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 26 minutes ago, Prospero said: This would keep us all busy... The crazy thing about that run, well besides 3 hurricanes lined up in a row, is it doesn’t landfall any of them haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 How does the one in the Gulf not landfall?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Can someone post the real GFS? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 50 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: How does the one in the Gulf not landfall?? It screws around offshore ala Juan 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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