yoda Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: I'd be shocked if 99L isn't a storm by tomorrow. This is a well developed wave near peak under favorable conditions. Keep an eye out this could sneak up on models. NHC still says no at 2 am on their TWO about it due to no closed surface wind circ... which I guess means no closed LLC Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen, located a little over a hundred miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. 1. A seemingly well-organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is moving quickly westward across the central Caribbean Sea, but satellite-derived wind data from a few hours ago again showed that the system has not developed a closed surface wind circulation. The wave is, however, producing an area of winds near tropical storm force south of the coast of Haiti, which will move near or south of Jamaica later this morning. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days before the system reaches Central America Wednesday night. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible on Jamaica today, and interests there, as well as in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula, should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a day or so. Gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 How is this not a tropical storm? Was recon out today? Did I miss it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 2 hours ago, Floydbuster said: How is this not a tropical storm? Was recon out today? Did I miss it? No recon till later today... and no LLC (or no closed surface wind circ as said above in the 2am TWO) no upgrade at 5am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 TD 15 remains at 5am... not going to make it to TS Nana per disco, should be gone in a few days as shear destroys it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 Donut think we're gonna have a TD16. The Caribbean disturbance will be classified a tropical storm upon recon finding a closed vortex. Jamaica is experiencing TS force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 11 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Donut think we're gonna have a TD16. The Caribbean disturbance will be classified a tropical storm upon recon finding a closed vortex. Jamaica is experiencing TS force winds. Gusts. Its peak. Where's the beef?? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 Gusts. Its peak. Where's the beef??Jamaica is not yet near any potential vorticity maximum. Do better. As for the other comment, you have beaten the point to death. The season is a disappointment for you and a complete bust. We get it. Got it. 10-4. Affirmative. You going to make 15 more posts whining about it instead of actually contributing something useful? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: I'd be shocked if 99L isn't a storm by tomorrow. This is a well developed wave near peak under favorable conditions. Keep an eye out this could sneak up on models. meh, might pad our numbers but very little time to get its act together before moving over Central America...Next up is that wave coming off Africa, hopefully thatll be promising, 40% odds this early is good i guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 Imagine saying, "Where's the beef" after we got a devastating category 4 hurricane 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 8 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said: Imagine saying, "Where's the beef" after we got a devastating category 4 hurricane He is a troll Ignore him 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 8 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said: Imagine saying, "Where's the beef" after we got a devastating category 4 hurricane For sure...people tend to poo poo storms that dont hit a high population, fortunately it didnt but yes 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 The center was partially missed by the latest ASCAT pass, but from what we can see, it does appear to have a closed circulation on the Eastern side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: He is a troll Ignore him The admins haven't banned him for it? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 4 hours ago, yoda said: TD 15 remains at 5am... not going to make it to TS Nana per disco, should be gone in a few days as shear destroys it It looks pretty healthy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 AF307 is almost in 99L. We'll know what we're dealing with soon enough. I still think winds on the north side will be strong enough to classify as a named storm if they find a closed vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, Windspeed said: AF307 is almost in 99L. We'll know what we're dealing with soon enough. I still think winds on the north side will be strong enough to classify as a named storm if they find a closed vortex. I’m anxiously watching to see what they find. This is a beautiful satellite appearance to not have a closed center. Has expanding outflow and persistent deep convection where you’d think the center should be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: It looks pretty healthy to me. Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 The depression has become better organized this morning with the center embedded in the western side of a growing area of deep convection. An earlier buoy report recorded adjusted maximum winds of 32 kt, and roughly half of the estimates show that the depression is a tropical storm. Conservatively, the winds will be held at 30 kt until we will see what the scatterometer shows this afternoon. Increasing shear is expected to limit any significant strengthening, although it does seem more likely than not that this system will barely make it to a tropical storm later today. The shear is forecast to get quite strong by tomorrow afternoon, so weakening is anticipated by then, and persistence of that shear is expected to cause the cyclone to decay into a remnant low in about 48 hours. While the initial part of the forecast is a little higher than the last one, this change is really in the noise level for intensity prediction and is only noticeable because of the tropical storm threshold. The initial motion has turned toward the east-northeast or 060/12 kt. There is reasonable agreement among the guidance that this motion will continue through tomorrow, and then become eastward during the next 2-3 days around the northern side of the subtropical ridge, followed by a northeastward turn by day 4. Similar to the last forecast, most of the uncertainty is with the speed, rather than the direction of the cyclone. The new forecast is closer to the faster guidance and the previous NHC track prediction. Dissipation is shown at 120h, although a few models have it occuring as early as days 2-3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 34.7N 73.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 35.6N 71.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 36.5N 68.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 37.2N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 37.3N 62.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/0000Z 37.0N 59.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1200Z 37.0N 57.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z 39.5N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 Now let's see if this system sneaks in a quick name change from TD 15 to Omar before its gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 Something is bound to develop out of the extending WAM on steroids by the end of the week. Might get a long-tracker to slip by the TUTT before it amplifies. Way too early to know how that plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Long range euro does look pretty active. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 A system just north of the Antilles with that amplified ridge coming down looks fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 I call my grandmother Nana, she doesn't find it amusing there's a tropical storm named after her 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 WRONG THREAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 24 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said: I call my grandmother Nana, she doesn't find it amusing there's a tropical storm named after her At least your grandma isn’t dead like both of mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 lol... We got Omar. 000 WTNT45 KNHC 012048 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Omar Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 Satellite images show that the system remains sheared with a bursting pattern on satellite, occasionally exposing the center, and a large area of curved bands in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. Almost all of the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates, along with SATCON values, are between 35 to 40 kt, and the lower number is chosen as the initial wind speed since scatterometer data suggests 30 to 35 kt. This makes Omar the 15th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, and is the earliest 15th storm on record, besting the previous mark by about a week from Ophelia of 2005. Any chance for strengthening should end by tomorrow afternoon due to greatly increasing shear, and weakening is likely to commence by then. The persistence of the shear should cause the cyclone to decay into a remnant low in about 48 hours, if not sooner. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast, which is near the model consensus. The initial motion remains east-northeast or 065/13 kt. The cyclone is being steered by the northern side of the subtropical ridge, which is forecast to cause a similar motion through tomorrow and an eastward turn late week due to the orientation of the ridge. The only notable change to the forecast is a slow down at long range in most of the guidance, probably due to a shallow system no longer feeling the stronger deep-layer winds, so the NHC track prediction follows suit. The remnant low should dissipate in 4-5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 35.3N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 36.1N 69.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 36.7N 66.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 37.2N 63.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 37.2N 61.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/0600Z 37.0N 59.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1800Z 37.0N 57.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1800Z 39.5N 53.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 Give me 30’s to 50’s active period with missed storms instead of this nonsense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 Really not seeing anything I'm that impressed with. Take away storms above 1000mb and we really don't have that many storms this season and none in upcoming model forecasts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Really not seeing anything I'm that impressed with. Take away storms above 1000mb and we really don't have that many storms this season and none in upcoming model forecasts. We've already gotten 1 major storm. Shut up 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 As we all now, May, June, July, and August are prime major hurricane Cap Verde season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 There’s a difference between “season fail” and hating all the storms that have formed save Laura for 18 hours. 15/4/1 is a weird flex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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