ldub23 Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Things looking quite dead. I think the average ace per storm is 3 and if 90 gets named that will drop a bit. Tutt coming back with a vengeance(MDR has been dead regardless) pretty much means there is no peak. 5/1/0 rest of season, though who knows how many 1.0 ace storms will get named. If the MJO ever was favorable you wouldnt know it. If there is another major the best chance will be sept 20-oct10 east of bermuda. Once again, SST'S(which got everyone to go overboard on ace) are the least important factor. I also think the season will end rather early, around oct10, with a below avg ace season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 31, 2020 Author Share Posted August 31, 2020 Visible suggests a better surface circulation than last night. Still needs better centralized convection to get a vort to ramp up however 99L is likely nearing classification. Perhaps by 5 pm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 31, 2020 Author Share Posted August 31, 2020 Likewise visible also suggests 90L has a closed low level circulation. Just needs increased convection to get classified though recon could find winds sufficient for a TD sooner. This probably gets a name by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Likewise visible also suggests 90L has a closed low level circulation. Just needs increased convection to get classified though recon could find winds sufficient for a TD sooner. This probably gets a name by tomorrow. This one will be named, 99 doubtful 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Could see 2 more named storms in the next 12-24 hours. 99L has some potential to make a run at becoming a hurricane. 90 will be a wave producer on the east coast. Both look robust at the moment for invests. Hopefully 99L continues its rapid pace of movement to decrease strengthening and also flooding issues where it makes landfall in Central America Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 31, 2020 Author Share Posted August 31, 2020 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: Things looking quite dead. I think the average ace per storm is 3 and if 90 gets named that will drop a bit. Tutt coming back with a vengeance(MDR has been dead regardless) pretty much means there is no peak. 5/1/0 rest of season, though who knows how many 1.0 ace storms will get named. If the MJO ever was favorable you wouldnt know it. If there is another major the best chance will be sept 20-oct10 east of bermuda. Once again, SST'S(which got everyone to go overboard on ace) are the least important factor. I also think the season will end rather early, around oct10, with a below avg ace season @ldub23 be out in the Atlantic MDR like... 2 25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 31, 2020 Author Share Posted August 31, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 31, 2020 Author Share Posted August 31, 2020 AF305 is en route to 90L and should reach the system around 3 PM EDT. Should have a better idea of what's going on at the surface. Recon is scheduled for 99L tomorrow if deemed necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 31, 2020 Author Share Posted August 31, 2020 ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea has changed little in organization since yesterday, and satellite-derived winds indicate that there is no closed circulation. However, environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 2. An area of low pressure is located about 135 miles southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina. This system continues to become better organized, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight while the system moves northeastward, near but offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States and then away from land. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate the system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 3. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a day or two. Gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 31, 2020 Author Share Posted August 31, 2020 Interesting thread on downstream pattern in the mid-to-longe range. Possible TUTT developing over the central Atlantic that would support suppression of CV and MDR development; however, caveats with strong Canadian Maritimes ridging (this has been touched upon the last few days) in place. Essentially anything weak due to the negative influences of shear and subsidence that survives to 60ºW could potentially move into a more favorable environment; furthermore with a block in place, this would increase risk to the SE and ECONUS as systems would be driven between to two large scale synoptic features. Plenty of time to watch this evolve. Interestingly, the EPS and GEFS ensembles still show a ramp up in MDR activity the second week of September and peak. I'd imagine anything far east would be steered into the central Atlantic but anything that remains weak would slip under a rather strong NW Atlantic Ridge in such a pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 12Z PARA GEFS still really likes the idea of a system on either side of Florida around mid month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 31, 2020 Author Share Posted August 31, 2020 Recon found a closed circulation in 90L but the wind obs are rather weak, around 20-25 kts at best. The circulation does have organized banding in the low-level cloud field, but considering that convection is still rather unimpressive overall at present, NHC may hold off on classification for now. It'll be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Fascinating to think how tropical cyclones in one basin could influence the eventual track of others 180 degrees around the planet. They just seem too far away for that to be possible, but it happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 31, 2020 Author Share Posted August 31, 2020 17 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Fascinating to think how tropical cyclones in one basin could influence the eventual track of others 180 degrees around the planet. They just seem too far away for that to be possible, but it happens. Every season we watch these TC influenced amplifications occur. They can cause big shifts in mid-to-long range modeling for our portion of the northern hemisphere. When strong typhoons enter into the polar jet at just the right motion and angle it can really buckle and amplify wave patterns downstream. Generally adiabatic cooling of moist equatorial airmasses can release some potent kinetic energy, increasing flow rates and strong waves within the jet stream that may lead to strong amplified trough versus ridge patterns across North America and the N. Atlantic. Likewise, intense Atlantic hurricanes do the same for Europe and N. Asia. We can already see hints of a such a setup in the mid-to-long range with an amplified Central Canada / N. High Plains trough vs a strong amplified NW Atlantic / Canadian Maritimes ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Fascinating to think how tropical cyclones in one basin could influence the eventual track of others 180 degrees around the planet. They just seem too far away for that to be possible, but it happens. A butterfly flaps its wings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 4 hours ago, NJwx85 said: 12Z PARA GEFS still really likes the idea of a system on either side of Florida around mid month. Where is this on weather models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 31, 2020 Author Share Posted August 31, 2020 Gurus trying figure out the pattern for peak into late September. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 26 minutes ago, TradeWinds said: Where is this on weather models? Don't look at the op models this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 That’s an ensemble though Right, but the person was asking why it wasn't showing up on the "main" models. That range is of course ensemble territory. It's all good WX-Double-O-7. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 Right, but the person was asking why it wasn't showing up on the "main" models. That range is of course ensemble territory. It's all good WX-Double-O-7.Eh excuse me, sir, you were thinking the same thing I was. Everything is good. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 53 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Gurus trying figure out the pattern for peak into late September. Phil882 the guru. Time is crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 How can the models be showing such a dead pattern? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 99L looks healthy tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 That's about as sexxy a tropical wave as you're ever gonna see... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: That’s an ensemble though I'm responding to the person where he said about the models not showing anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm responding to the person where he said about the models not showing anything. I think he meant the website weathermodels... not the actual ones... at least I thought that @TradeWinds is that what you meant? Or were you trolling about the actual weather models themselves? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 18 minutes ago, Windspeed said: That's about as sexxy a tropical wave as you're ever gonna see... No TD at 11pm... guess we will wait till tomorrow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 26 minutes ago, yoda said: I think he meant the website weathermodels... not the actual ones... at least I thought that @TradeWinds is that what you meant? Or were you trolling about the actual weather models themselves? WTH is wrong with everyone? I just asked where the Para ensembles is for heaven's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, TradeWinds said: WTH is wrong with everyone? I just asked where the Para ensembles is for heaven's sake. Too many people are making jokes about the ops (main models) past few days showing nothing... that's why. Just wanted to be sure. It's on tropical tidbits. Click ensemble... then gfs-para. Then you can choose the hours you want to look at from there on the scroll button 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 I'd be shocked if 99L isn't a storm by tomorrow. This is a well developed wave near peak under favorable conditions. Keep an eye out this could sneak up on models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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