thunderbolt Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 59 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Here is the system here crashing into extreme northeastern NC Virginia Beach 938-945 mb then to a position over Cheasepeak Bay at 964 mb then to the Eastern Great Lakes. Do I think its overdone maybe but we shall see. I miss that blue stuff in the top left corner... Back on topic though, This will be interesting to watch, the Parallel really wants this to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 30, 2020 Author Share Posted August 30, 2020 That would be a very weird angle of trajectory to go from the Outer Banks to the Great Lakes. Is this even possible? The Cat 4 strength I’m sure is way overdone. It's absolutely possible but a rarer solution. You need a very strong NS/NF/Greenland maritime block and general troughness N. Plains and Central Canada. Takes a lot of luck (or bad luck depending on perspective) to get that setup and a TC in the right position, but it does occur. Anyone remember Hazel? Again, not saying this is going to happen, but SSTs off the SE are still way above normal. Isaias did little to upwell and the disturbance forecast to move ENE out into the Atlantic won't be strong enough to put much of a dent in the thermocline. Also similar setups have been Hugo and Isabel, though Isabel was a large mess by the time it got up to the Carolinas. You also need a favorable upper environment and mitigatable shear, which is also more difficult at that latitude. So it takes more than just the maritime block. But we can get NW moving systems off the SE to Outer banks and have them reach the Great Lakes region. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 My mother still talks about Hazel. She remembers those big, round metal trashcans they had back then flying down the street in her Cheverly, MD neighborhood. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 30, 2020 Author Share Posted August 30, 2020 99L in the eastern Caribbean is looking really healthy today. It is convectively active along the axis with notable southerly backside flow in the low levels. This probably does not yet have a closed circulation at the surface, but the cloud pattern is suggestive for mid level cyclonic turning. There is a building upper 200 hPa anticyclone over the Caribbean and sufficient easterly 800 hPa moisture surge surrounding 99L's envelope. Shear is nil through its potential westward track. If the disturbance manages to close off a surface vortex, it has the ingredients to intensify. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 13 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 99L in the eastern Caribbean is looking really healthy today. It is convectively active along the axis with notable southerly backside flow in the low levels. This probably does not yet have a closed circulation at the surface, but the cloud pattern is suggestive for mid level cyclonic turning. There is a building upper 200 hPa anticyclone over the Caribbean and sufficient easterly 800 hPa moisture surge surrounding 99L's envelope. Shear is nil through its potential westward track. If the disturbance manages to close off a surface vortex, it has the ingredients to intensify. Conditions look favorable enough for a hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 99L in the eastern Caribbean is looking really healthy today. It is convectively active along the axis with notable southerly backside flow in the low levels. This probably does not yet have a closed circulation at the surface, but the cloud pattern is suggestive for mid level cyclonic turning. There is a building upper 200 hPa anticyclone over the Caribbean and sufficient easterly 800 hPa moisture surge surrounding 99L's envelope. Shear is nil through its potential westward track. If the disturbance manages to close off a surface vortex, it has the ingredients to intensify. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Still early but at least for now, path looks similar to Felix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 A Central America hit in any case.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Environment looks pretty decent by Caribbean standards, not sure why models are struggling to do much. There's some dryness out ahead of it, but shear is light and when it exists, it seems to be northerly or easterly. Though it's not actually getting much help from upper level divergence, as it is only modest at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 30, 2020 Author Share Posted August 30, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Dont get too excited. thats the GFS they have that still shows fantasy storms. Maybe in winter it will be set to show lots of blizzards. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Any thoughts on this potential system? I can say here in Gulfport, Florida, we've had over 3 inches of rain since last night with more on the way with gusts over 30 mph. At times it has felt like a tropical system and nothing like our typical summer thunderstorms. I don't see anything on the models I check, but this has the "feel" of something that could become a tropical storm. I suggest it may end up with a name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Weak storm seems likely. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 30, 2020 Author Share Posted August 30, 2020 Dont get too excited. thats the GFS they have that still shows fantasy storms. Maybe in winter it will be set to show lots of blizzards. Incorrect. That is the non-operational parallel GFS model that would become the GFS version 16 operational in 2021 if there are no hitches. It is still in experimental phase. The current operational GFS is version 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 So in other words, they are "upgrading" the GFS again just a year after the FV3 became operational? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 10 hours ago, NavarreDon said: And away we go! . That's a lot of flyswatters! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 19 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 36 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Dont get too excited. thats the GFS they have that still shows fantasy storms. Maybe in winter it will be set to show lots of blizzards. Incorrect. That is the non-operational parallel GFS model that would become the GFS version operational in 202 if there are no hitches. It is still in experimental phase. The current operational GFS is version 15. Still shows lots of storms. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 30, 2020 Author Share Posted August 30, 2020 So in other words, they are "upgrading" the GFS again just a year after the FV3 became operational?I left off the '1'. Spring 2021 is tentative for upgrade if there are no issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 30, 2020 Author Share Posted August 30, 2020 Still shows lots of storms.It's actually performed better at TCG than the current operational. Yes, every once in a while a storm will form in the mid-range due to a feature in the pattern change. However, the current operationals are missing the mark too frequently on near-term TCG potential. Like 99L for example. The current para is the only one that has a TC. Perhaps that fails to occur and it misses the mark. But the operationals have chosen poorly with genesis environmental fields. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 8 hours ago, BlizzardNole said: My mother still talks about Hazel. She remembers those big, round metal trashcans they had back then flying down the street in her Cheverly, MD neighborhood. Hazel resulted in the largest one day rainfall total ever measured in Toronto (YYZ). There was some serious flooding in the city’s west end and a total of 35 deaths. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Hazel_in_Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 31, 2020 Author Share Posted August 31, 2020 That pattern tho.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 31, 2020 Author Share Posted August 31, 2020 Seriously, if something significant does advance west out if the MDR, that has ECONUS landfall written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: So in other words, they are "upgrading" the GFS again just a year after the FV3 became operational? God forbid they upgrade the GFS every couple years...that truly sounds terrible and I hope they rethink that strategy... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 31, 2020 Author Share Posted August 31, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: That area is now designated as Invest 90L. It has a high chance of development and it has in fact been showing up on the guidance, just not as a surface reflection. Anywhere from 4 to 6 inches of rain or more today and some gusts over 50 mph in the Tampa Bay area. It likely will continue somewhat for the rest of the night. There is some substance to whatever it is, and does look like it will go out to sea. At times as the squalls came through it definitely felt like a tropical storm, even though it didn't look like much on sats. Will be something to watch as it moves off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 3 hours ago, Prospero said: Any thoughts on this potential system? I can say here in Gulfport, Florida, we've had over 3 inches of rain since last night with more on the way with gusts over 30 mph. At times it has felt like a tropical system and nothing like our typical summer thunderstorms. I don't see anything on the models I check, but this has the "feel" of something that could become a tropical storm. I suggest it may end up with a name. The models have it a weak system that eases out to sea off the Carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 16 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said: Ummm.....Marco already was a hurricane in the GOM.....before Laura... Shows how much it was forgotten by me since it was sheared to pieces in the GOM before Laura Guess it will be Nana then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 31, 2020 Author Share Posted August 31, 2020 Despite its fast motion, 99L appears to be organizing the past few hours. There is curved banding in the south and east envelope with convection. Near the center of the broad circulation, convective pulsing is percolating. This should help tighten a vorticity maximum and TD15 should get classifed soon thereafter by this evening. I think this does develop and makes landfall as a named storm. It is hauling through. If it can develop by this evening, it will have a shot at hurricane intensity prior to landfall, otherwise it may run out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 31, 2020 Author Share Posted August 31, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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