BYG Jacob Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Some have speculated it has been the lack of data from transatlantic flights, but IDK. They have really struggled. European and EPS in particular. I think the GFS has been worse, it tried to pretend Josephine and Gonzalo didn't even exist. It also showed Hanna as an open wave for landfall and had Laura and Marco Fujiwara in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 56 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 13 named storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane by August 26th... But with CSU's forecast of 24/12/5, we have a LONG way to go if that's gonna verify. Do you think we will still see 11/8/4 over the rest of the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 Just now, cptcatz said: But with CSU's forecast of 24/12/5, we have a LONG way to go if that's gonna verify. Do you think we will still see 11/8/4 over the rest of the season? Yes, and no cheeky, "well, we'll see!" from you either. We're going to have a hyperactive season. Get it into your head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 34 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said: Yes, and no cheeky, "well, we'll see!" from you either. We're going to have a hyperactive season. Get it into your head Well... the group of us will watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 29, 2020 Author Share Posted August 29, 2020 We've got an orange and two lemons now. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A tropical wave located about 550 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the Lesser Antilles. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. 2. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is expected to move very slowly for the next several days, and some development is possible early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. 3. A low pressure area is expected to form off of the southeastern coast of the United States early next week. Additional subsequent development is possible as the system moves east-northeastward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Beven 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 1 hour ago, BYG Jacob said: Yes, and no cheeky, "well, we'll see!" from you either. We're going to have a hyperactive season. Get it into your head We're already having a hyperactive season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Zero doubt in my mind. I guess “we’ll see” 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: Well... the group of us will watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: We've got an orange and two lemons now. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A tropical wave located about 550 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the Lesser Antilles. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. 2. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is expected to move very slowly for the next several days, and some development is possible early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. 3. A low pressure area is expected to form off of the southeastern coast of the United States early next week. Additional subsequent development is possible as the system moves east-northeastward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Beven And yet the models don't show anything Smfh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 Do storms form this early this often off the eastern US coast? This would be the second I’ve seen this year and I don’t recall this happening usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 2 hours ago, Windspeed said: We've got an orange and two lemons now. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A tropical wave located about 550 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the Lesser Antilles. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. 2. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is expected to move very slowly for the next several days, and some development is possible early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. 3. A low pressure area is expected to form off of the southeastern coast of the United States early next week. Additional subsequent development is possible as the system moves east-northeastward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Beven Not much for peak season with only sporadic model support for any of them. We have yet to have a burst of storm formation where 3 or 4 form in rapid succession without monumental struggles. No evidence of a burst through peak. Atlantic continues to look like a dried up raisin. A typical 2020 storm may form from that thing in the gom as it scoots out to sea but this picture is less than impressive for peak. If this is MJO 2-3 yikes 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 Well now that ldub23 is on my ignore list we can now get back to tropical weather. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: Not much for peak season with only sporadic model support for any of them. We have yet to have a burst of storm formation where 3 or 4 form in rapid succession without monumental struggles. No evidence of a burst through peak. Atlantic continues to look like a dried up raisin. A typical 2020 storm may form from that thing in the gom as it scoots out to sea but this picture is less than impressive for peak. If this is MJO 2-3 yikes Jesus Christ. If you think this season is somehow inactive or "disappointing," you likely would have lost your mind tracking a season like 2014 or 2015 (just from recent memory). We just had one of the strongest landfalling hurricanes in US history before September. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: Not much for peak season with only sporadic model support for any of them. We have yet to have a burst of storm formation where 3 or 4 form in rapid succession without monumental struggles. No evidence of a burst through peak. Atlantic continues to look like a dried up raisin. A typical 2020 storm may form from that thing in the gom as it scoots out to sea but this picture is less than impressive for peak. If this is MJO 2-3 yikes Weenie doesn't begin to describe you 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 It's august 29th and we might be on the N and O named storms soon but guys...the atlantic is BOONNEE DRYYY 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 35 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said: It's august 29th and we might be on the N and O named storms soon but guys...the atlantic is BOONNEE DRYYY "'Cause when life looks like easy street, there is danger at your door" A few wise words from my favorite rock-n-roll band. Just remember it ain't over till the fat man sings. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Gfs Para has been consitent with a storm around this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 From the Mid Atlantic subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Starting in the next 24 hrs, Models are showing a big plume of moisture coming north from the Amazon (French Guina, Guyana, Suriname ) into the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean. This should give the AEWs moving through the area a boost during the next 7 days while it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 3 hours ago, Alfoman said: Jesus Christ. If you think this season is somehow inactive or "disappointing," you likely would have lost your mind tracking a season like 2014 or 2015 (just from recent memory). We just had one of the strongest landfalling hurricanes in US history before September. I sort of scratch my head that in 2020 people have trouble recognizing they are being trolled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Well here comes Marco that will move out to sea... 3. An area of low pressure is expected to form off of the southeastern coast of the United States in a day or two. Subsequent development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week while the system moves northeastward or east-northeastward, initially parallel to the southeastern coast of the U.S. and then away from land. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Zelinsky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 4 hours ago, yoda said: Well here comes Marco that will move out to sea... 3. An area of low pressure is expected to form off of the southeastern coast of the United States in a day or two. Subsequent development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week while the system moves northeastward or east-northeastward, initially parallel to the southeastern coast of the U.S. and then away from land. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Zelinsky Ummm.....Marco already was a hurricane in the GOM.....before Laura... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 9 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gfs Para has been consitent with a storm around this time frame. Euro shows nothing, 06GFS NADA. Nothing for peak. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 11 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Euro shows nothing, 06GFS NADA. Nothing for peak. Who cares Models have been struggling so far this season with every storm. Why do you keep repeating yourself? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 13 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Well now that ldub23 is on my ignore list we can now get back to tropical weather. Just added to my ignore list as well. I’m willing to bet he’s the most ignored user in this board, and if not he definitely should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 And away we go!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 At this point we look for signals but what is a bit troubling not only is the East Coast open to a hurricane strike a major ingredient to this scenario is a blocking high showing up in the Canadian Maritimes and its been there quite a few times now in the long range. I think we need to give it some credibility because up here in the northern latitudes there are definitely hints of changes to a fall like pattern with fairly large mid latitude storms just north of the Canadian border. Here is the system here crashing into extreme northeastern NC Virginia Beach 938-945 mb then to a position over Cheasepeak Bay at 964 mb then to the Eastern Great Lakes. Do I think its overdone maybe but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Just out of curiosity. Where does the season stand ACE wise compared to where it should be on August 30th? Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 That would be a very weird angle of trajectory to go from the Outer Banks to the Great Lakes. Is this even possible? The Cat 4 strength I’m sure is way overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 37 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: The Caribbean wave has been designated Invest 99L We are at 42.1 as of today. The normal is 28.7. CSU keeps stats for each basin. https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html Thanks so much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: Euro shows nothing, 06GFS NADA. Nothing for peak. Yo Pinocchio stop lying You might want to check to Euro again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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