JakkelWx Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 That strong ridge over top... yikes. That's gonna drive that storm straight into New England. 384 hours out but still, like @SnoSki14 said, I'm a little more worried than usual for an EC impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallis Rockwell Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 First northeast impact, tropical storm, Second northeast impact, hurricane, Third northeast impact, Major hurricane? Sounds like 2020 to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said: First northeast impact, tropical storm, Second northeast impact, hurricane, Third northeast impact, Major hurricane? Sounds like 2020 to me! Well to be accurate...Isaias was a tropical storm when it came into/just west of SNE, but your point is well taken. We’ll see in a couple weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 31 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well to be accurate...Isaias was a tropical storm when it came into/just west of SNE, but your point is well taken. We’ll see in a couple weeks? The signal is there for a late recurve, and it's a bit more concerning than usual. I feel like I've seen this before. Not sure if this is the GFS picking up on extra-tropical transition and a spreading out of the wind field? Or if this is just typical of pole-ward moving hurricanes gradually weakening under decreasing SST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Verbatim the solution would play out like the Vagabond Hurricane (1903) only with a very late recurve near the coast. Pretty much a track never encountered in the modern record. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1903_New_Jersey_hurricane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Meantime it is poof on the 12z GFS run. Hence the folly of 15 day maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 3 hours ago, bigtenfan said: Meantime it is poof on the 12z GFS run. Hence the folly of 15 day maps. It's there on the ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 3 hours ago, bigtenfan said: Meantime it is poof on the 12z GFS run. Hence the folly of 15 day maps. Check the para gfs Its there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 What the hell is wrong with the genesis on these models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Para gfs shows the next system 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Just too sick. Deep tropical right into the Delaware Capes. Bob'esque 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 25 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: What the hell is wrong with the genesis on these models? They clearly don't have enough exodus... (okay I'll step out now) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 28, 2020 Author Share Posted August 28, 2020 The big three globals have been struggling with TCG since Dorian. No idea. A lack of data or some other nonsense. It is a known issue. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnus X-1 Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: They clearly don't have enough exodus... (okay I'll step out now) Or Apocalypse in 9/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Para gfs shows the next system Wow...that’s a big PRE look for NE no..? Of course assuming that is to be taken verbatim? Which is a big IF??? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 What is a para gfs? The one that shows storms? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 15 years ago at this very minute, tracking Katrina. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 50 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: 15 years ago at this very minute, tracking Katrina. Still got all that red hair? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: What is a para gfs? The one that shows storms? It’s just the next iteration of the same POS! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 8 hours ago, MJO812 said: Para gfs shows the next system Lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 Euro and GFS rather dead. Still think a mini burst might occur sept20-oct10 unless we have switched to a winter like pattern by then. its not going to be hyper active with a dried up MDR. JB is claiming we are in the active phase of the MJO. How much nore unfavorable is it in the MDR when its not favorable? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 29, 2020 Author Share Posted August 29, 2020 The para is interesting in that it is building heights across the northern maritimes into a Canadian block by Sept 5th. That is a classic long-tracker pattern that typically results in repeating WATL landfalls. Also develops an Azores cutoff that breaks down 700 hPa flow off NW Africa and the MDR moistens with precipitable water substantially as we approach peak. This will have to be watched for pattern trends in coming runs as that would suggest a busy September. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 10 minutes ago, Windspeed said: The para is interesting in that it is building heights across the northern maritimes into a Canadian block by Sept 5th. That is a classic long-tracker pattern that typically results in repeating WATL landfalls. Also develops an Azores cutoff that breaks down 700 hPa flow off NW Africa and the MDR moistens with precipitable water substantially as we approach peak. This will have to be watched for pattern trends in coming runs as that would suggest a busy September. The para has been consistent on a storm forming in the long range. The exact location is yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 Just now, Vice-Regent said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nova737 Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 Is the SAL the thing putting a damper on this season’s forecasted activity, or is there something else in play? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 On 8/23/2020 at 4:03 AM, tiger_deF said: This may age badly Narrator: It did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 29, 2020 Author Share Posted August 29, 2020 Is the SAL the thing putting a damper on this season’s forecasted activity, or is there something else in play? Just curious. 13 named storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane by August 26th... 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 18 hours ago, Floydbuster said: What the hell is wrong with the genesis on these models? I have no clue what's wrong this year, its like models think its a raging El Nino. they're cranking out tons of model canes in the EPAC and can't find a storm in the ATL unless its already formed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 49 minutes ago, Nova737 said: Is the SAL the thing putting a damper on this season’s forecasted activity, or is there something else in play? Just curious. All the SAL right now means delayed development unitll the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 29, 2020 Author Share Posted August 29, 2020 The only metric that seems off from seasonal forecasts at this point is accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). Though we're above normal, considering number of storms, an ACE of 42.1 seems low. However, bulk ACE generation is almost always in the months of September and more recently October when we experience a higher number of concurrent hurricanes. September hurricanes generally take tracks that allow them to last longer too, hence higher rate of ACE production. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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