2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[MUWX]

12 minutes ago, Calderon said:

It's time to cancel your ability to post. 

Is it possible to block someone on this site? 

[Chicago Storm]

Its neutral endo. People r drunk today. 

you’re just as bad.

 

 

.

[Amped]

Euro is ugly

CMC UKMET   NAVGEM ICON all like the idea of a Bahamas/FL storm and a west central gulf storm day 6-7, so I'm not totally buying the Euro.   I'd actually be a little surprised if the favorable conditions yielded nothing.

[Jackstraw]

If anything develops I think a lot is going to depend on the evolution of that monster SW conus ridge.  GEFS and EPS along with the OP's show it breaking down to varying degrees around day 7 in general.  There are trends toward zonal flow across the northern conus after that for a few days farther out into fantasy land across the board.  A setup like that, IF it were to happen can sometimes lead to headaches forecasting a track for anything in the SE Bahamas, S GOM or the W Caribbean.  Weaker steering and/or something getting trapped under a conus ridge-WAR battle.  Stalls, left turns and loops oh my.  

 

 

[Windspeed]

There it is, Chief...

 

Jokes aside, that is the most impressive sub-Saharan MCS I have seen since Irma. This is going to be fun to track regardless of pattern shenanigans. Granted, Florence's was nice too, but not that intense.

[Floydbuster]

 

[yoda]

 

[Floydbuster]

29 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

Serious question: Why do you seem so negative about the chances of 97L and (in particular) 98L?

The National Hurricane Center is giving them both almost "certain" development chances, and technically they could both wind up becoming hurricanes. In fact, I think 98L is our most likely contender for the first major hurricane of the year. The wave over Africa is also moving off at just the right time. Last 10 days of August, MJO moving into favorable phase, rapidly decreasing wind shear conditions, increasing upper-level divergence and low level convergence. Significant moisture leaving Africa compared to the dustbowl we saw last month.

So why so negative? I could understand if it were July and the SAL was everywhere, but these models are pretty damn tight for 5-7 days out, and that track in late August in a season like this screams major hurricane.

 

[the ghost of leroy]

23 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Serious question: Why do you seem so negative about the chances of 97L and (in particular) 98L?

The National Hurricane Center is giving them both almost "certain" development chances, and technically they could both wind up becoming hurricanes. In fact, I think 98L is our most likely contender for the first major hurricane of the year. The wave over Africa is also moving off at just the right time. Last 10 days of August, MJO moving into favorable phase, rapidly decreasing wind shear conditions, increasing upper-level divergence and low level convergence. Significant moisture leaving Africa compared to the dustbowl we saw last month.

So why so negative? I could understand if it were July and the SAL was everywhere, but these models are pretty damn tight for 5-7 days out, and that track in late August in a season like this screams major hurricane.

 

Kids these days want instant gratification. They are not content to track a mere possibility of a major hurricane. They want it now. 

[yoda]

6 hours ago, Windspeed said:

There it is, Chief...

 

Jokes aside, that is the most impressive sub-Saharan MCS I have seen since Irma. This is going to be fun to track regardless of pattern shenanigans. Granted, Florence's was nice too, but not that intense.

NHC doesn't seem too enthused about it in the 2AM TWO -- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/190524_MIATWOAT.shtml

A large area of showers and thunderstorms, located over Guinea, 
Africa, is associated with a vigorous tropical wave.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some 
development of this system while the wave enters the extreme eastern 
Atlantic on Friday.  By early next week, however, conditions are 
forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation 
while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph toward the 
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[ldub23]

GFS at 198

Euro at  192

Nothing. The  CV season only  last  so long. When are the favorable  conditions  coming?

 

To be fair, here  is the  ICON model at  120

But when the gfs and euro agree  i tend to go with that. They dont  do anything with the  new wave  coming  off africa either. I think the euro turns  into a weak td that falls apart once again over the very warm tropical atlantic. I will be  delighted to post  maps  showing  monster canes. Can someone  just explain when the favorable  conditions are coming? An awful lot  of  very  dry  air  is  suffocating  98L right  now.

There  is an interesting westerly  wave  moving  off NC right  now. Probably  nothing but  looks  cool

 

12Z GFS absolutely  nothing from 97 or  98. Some  showers. the green stuff off the fla west  coast  is  98, the  green stuff  in the  nw  gom is  97.

 

JB says  just wait  10 more days

Joe Bastardi

 

@BigJoeBastardi

·

2h

 

Atlantic systems slow to develop as Phase 8/1 MJO are only favorable in close. However We are headed for 2/3. Front 2 still can develop, but have to wait till further west, The MJO goes into 2 in about 10 days and is likely to crawl thru 2/3 for 10-15 day after IMO.

 

18Z GFS thru aug  28. nothing at  all

 

I  have never been a  big  fan of atlantic development when there  is  a  huge  low  over se  canada. High too far  south and that  is  a  perfect  set  up for  big  SAL outbreaks. At  least  JB  took the time to say when conditions will be favorable. 10 more  days.

 

Are those  josies  remnants  off florida?

 

Aug  29 on GFS. Bone dry  el nino look. Nothing will cross that  intact.I know sst's dont  bear  it  out but atlantic  conditions sure are el nino'ish

 

Dont say i never  post  monster  cane  pics. Hmon develops 98

[Nova737]

Why do I get the feeling that there is gonna be a Patricia in the atlantic this year, but one that will curve OTS before affecting any land?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

7 minutes ago, Nova737 said:

Why do I get the feeling that there is gonna be a Patricia in the atlantic this year, but one that will curve OTS before affecting any land?

If there were to be an Atlantic Patricia (and there will be in the next few years) it’s not going to recurve. A storm sub 890 and 200mph plus would occur in the SW Caribbean somewhere near the Caymans. That’s the the only area with MPI to pull it off. So it’s not escaping. 

[Orangeburgwx]

If there were to be an Atlantic Patricia (and there will be in the next few years) it’s not going to recurve. A storm sub 890 and 200mph plus would occur in the SW Caribbean somewhere near the Caymans. That’s the the only area with MPI to pull it off. So it’s not escaping. 

Wilma got down to 882 in the SW Caribbean, but Dorian packed unvarified 200mph+ winds on the SWRF dropsconds

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[Eskimo Joe]

Not sure if this was already posted, but this thread is worth reading:

 

 

[ldub23]

Euro showing  nothing  out thru 192. We are  in peak now. Euro continues to show deep low  pressure  over se canada which forces the high in a  position to flood the atlantic with SAL. Euro shows  nothing  coming  of 13 and little  from 14. Could  be  12/2/0 soon as 13 might  not  get a  name.

 

18Z gfs just about  identical. Deep low  over se canada and  no doubt  some  big  SAL outbreaks.

 

[BombsAway1288]

4 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Euro showing  nothing  out thru 192. We are  in peak now. Euro continues to show deep low  pressure  over se canada which forces the high in a  position to flood the atlantic with SAL. Euro shows  nothing  coming  of 13 and little  from 14. Could  be  12/2/0 soon as 13 might  not  get a  name.

 

18Z gfs just about  identical. Deep low  over se canada and  no doubt  some  big  SAL outbreaks.

 

Honestly, I think I speak for everyone when I say I think it's time for you to stop. You were saying the same exact thing earlier this week about the 2 systems that will impact the SE US next week and were wrong.

You're clearly giving your best trolling attempt

[Windspeed]

What the hell is going on with the GFS lately? Sheesh...

[wncsnow]

13 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

What the hell is going on with the GFS lately? Sheesh...
 

It's American thats why 

[Orangeburgwx]

What the hell is going on with the GFS lately? Sheesh...

It's American thats why 

Damn, the Euro is 2nd worse... Even the v16Para out performed the ECMWF at the end of that chart

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[Kevin Reilly]

These models are folding their arms and throwing them up in the air and saying there is no way 2 systems can be in the Gulf at the same time and tries seeing which one becomes the dominant feature.  Depression 14 right now is getting awfully close to the northern coast of  South America and Depression 13 is being sheared pretty good.  I see no agreement on models and think the most likely outcome is rapid development right at landfall which in most cases happens in a moments notice without much warning.  I’d be prepared in Florida and entire Gulf Coast. 

[Calderon]

35 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

These models are folding their arms and throwing them up in the air and saying there is no way 2 systems can be in the Gulf at the same time and tries seeing which one becomes the dominant feature.  Depression 14 right now is getting awfully close to the northern coast of  South America and Depression 13 is being sheared pretty good.  I see no agreement on models and think the most likely outcome is rapid development right at landfall which in most cases happens in a moments notice without much warning.  I’d be prepared in Florida and entire Gulf Coast. 

Trust me, I'm over 8k miles from home and the modeling here has been s**t recently. The activity last night and today have ZERO support from models we use. It's insane.

[CoastalWx]

Still a lot of work to be done in the MDR. We have TUTTS, dry air, shear etc. The globals are fairly quiet.

[bigtenfan]

With all of the focus on Laura and TD 14 are there any early thoughts on the next wave to leave Africa?

[Windspeed]

With all of the focus on Laura and TD 14 are there any early thoughts on the next wave to leave Africa?

Well it is a large wave with a noticeable mid-level circulation. It appears to have exited slightly more north and will pass through the Cabo Verdes. It also has a very nice mid-level moisture envelope around it. Obviously there is very stable dry air, but well NW of the wave itself. SSTs at that latitude are marginal but as it keeps gaining longitude, they do increase to support genesis. We'll just have to keep an eye on it. It is color-coded orange by the NHC with 40% probs in the 5-day outlook.

[vortex95]

NHC noted in the 18z update that conditions in 3-5 day period will not be favorable and have lowered the development chances to 30%.  A large part of the tropical Atlantic is devoid of deep convection, as the SAL/dry air dominates.  Look at how far S the ITCZ is displaced. As I mentioned in another thread, something does not seem right here.  Everything is supposed to favorable for Cabo Verde TCs, but we are still dealing with significant large-scale issues and we are in climo peak period now.  Should this be happening in a hyperactive season?  Time will tell.
 

[vortex95]

10 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Still a lot of work to be done in the MDR. We have TUTTS, dry air, shear etc. The globals are fairly quiet.

 

[yoda]

down to 20 percent in the 8pm TWO

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Laura, located near the northern Leeward Islands, and on 
Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the northwestern 
Caribbean Sea. 

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located between the west 
coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with 
a broad area of low pressure and tropical wave. This disturbance is 
expected to move westward across the Cabo Verde Islands on Saturday 
and it will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall 
there.  Some slow development of this wave is possible during the 
next couple of days while it moves across the eastern 
tropical Atlantic before environmental conditions become less 
favorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[Chrisrotary12]

If this isn't the year of ugliest tropical systems I can remember. Just crap system after crap system.

[Windspeed]

Good lord that AEW went poof!