2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[wizard021]

Cmc/Ukmet both north of the islands and intensifying toward south florida or keys.

[wizard021]

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2020081712/gem_shear_watl_29.png

Light shear, mjo pulse, and warm waters will easily lead to a strengthening hurricane as depicted here. Gfs is tossed as of now.

[wizard021]

Ukmet is north , cmc is middle ground and gfs is furthest south. Gfs has been having wild swings on intensity from 00z to 06z to 12z. 

[wizard021]

15 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Looks like the GFS wants to bring down another TUTT ahead of the system behind 97L and shear/land interaction eventually kill the system off. Pretty notable changes with regards to TCG in general, but we're still a long ways out from knowing is this has a shot at surviving past the islands. 

97L should have a pretty decent environment in the Western Caribbean later this week, but we'll see it if it can slow down to take advantage of it. 

Could be , but with the amplified mjo moving in, have to think conditions will be as favorable as the other non gfs models have it.

[NorthHillsWx]

CMC solution of multiple TC’s in GOM at same time is quite interesting. No reason to focus on model to model runs though. Signal is there for tropical cyclone genesis and very little to no chance of recurvature with that massive blocking ridge in place. As said above, could get interesting this week. 

[Windspeed]

42 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

12z  Alot weaker. No hurricanes anywhere. More of the same weaksauce.

 

 

East pac active  causing  tons  of shear. A weak sauce low  in  n gom. I guess thats 97L, nothing  but a couple  of  gusty  showers. Maybe that  other weak sauce right  behind  it  is  98L. Peak season and  nothing. Very  hostile everywhere. Dont  care what sst's are, this  is  classic  el nino. Atlantic tutts galore, shear abundant, and dry air  like  a  desert  bone.

You're going to come off as quite bipolar in your postings if you start hanging on each GFS operational run for long-range track and immediately making a declaration of death in your "outlook" of the upcoming period every time that track doesn't pan out. The very next run could have an entirely different TCG location and resulting stronger track intensity ~120 hrs out. Best to just realize we have potential development to follow. The ensembles are still more valuable in the long range as has already been stated multiple times, repeatedly. When we actually do have a TC to track, we then may start focusing more on operational track placement and pattern, though you still must be cautious beyond 144+ hrs for the downstream pattern, as that can easily flip. At any rate, your persistent declarations about the peak season being this or that based on single operational model outputs every six hours is not particularly contributive to the discussion. That's not to say we should not point out a pattern that swings more unfavorable. But that is entirely not what is being suggested by modeling here in the mid-to-long range.

[wizard021]

Gfs still makes landfall with future 98l in Brownsville with a cat 1?

[SnoSki14]

We're already seeing a burst of activity and this is in the lull period.

Looks like it'll get even uglier than I thought and that steering is brutal for the US. 

[Windspeed]

2PM EDT Outlook:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands is producing a 
large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  This 
disturbance is moving westward at about 20 mph, and is expected to 
continue to move quickly westward over the eastern and central 
Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days, which is likely to 
limit significant development.  After that time, however, the 
system is expected to move more slowly westward across the western 
Caribbean, where upper-level winds could become more conducive for 
the development of a tropical depression during the latter part of 
this week.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and 
gusty winds are expected over portions of the Windward and southern 
Leeward Islands through Tuesday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is forecast to 
interact with another disturbance located several hundred miles 
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands within the next day or two. This 
interaction is expected to lead to the formation of a broad area of 
low pressure, and conditions are forecast to be conducive for the 
development of a tropical depression during the middle-to-latter 
part of this week while the system moves westward to west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western 
portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[wizard021]

 

[Prospero]

I guess this would have our attention if were like this next Monday:

 

[Calderon]

1 hour ago, Prospero said:

I guess this would have our attention if were like this next Monday:

 

It's one of our Navy models, it's garbage most of the time. 

[Alfoman]

For what it's worth, both the CMC and GFS have trended slightly weaker with the digging trough in the E US, which would reduce the southwesterly shear as 97L would theoretically make its way towards the GOM. The the large pocket of dry air above the moisture envelope for the wave plus the forward speed will slow down any progress until it passes 80W. 

Still think this could develop into a legitimate storm once it gets into the GOM. 

[Windspeed]

 

[Windspeed]

Mentioning this here as it relates to an overall pattern feature. The MJO is currently increasing favorability across the Atlantic Basin as was forecasted. This should remain in place for the next few weeks, perhaps longer. Interestingly, one of the side effects of robust upper 200 hPa vorticity can be a negative when associated with a monsoonal trough. That's exactly what we have going on in the EATL right now. The WAM extension west into the MDR with two competing wave axii and strong low-level convergence amplified by the ITCZ. This is otherwise generally great for TCG; however, if you have multiple regions of vorticity within close proximity and robust convection occurring over a large area, it can sometimes take an extended period of time for one of the competing regions of vorticity to become dominate. If these regions were further apart, you'd likely get two TCs develop. A favorable MJO phase is always better for TCG than a an unfavorable phase. But there can still be caveats.

There has also been research done on how a positive MJO phase influences rapid intensification. Interestingly, it was determined that though the MJO greatly enhances convection to allow for TCG, it doesn't necessarily help with rapid intensification of a particular cyclone. Again, competing convection may have something to do with this as the internal convection within the TC's vortex structure may have to compete with surrounding areas of convection. Sometimes that can be a negative factor, though perhaps not as much if the vortex is already intense. We saw this occur with Major Hurricane Matthew in the deep Caribbean back in 2015. It became a Category 5 despite having to compete with backside intense MCS complexes with competing MLCs rotating outside its main vortex. Though there is a need for more research to be done, I suspect the best scenario for TCG would be an isolated wave convectively influenced by a favorable MJO phase, but not one so strong that it over-amplifies surrounding regions of convection, which may induce subsidence on the resulting TC.

Obviously when dealing with a monsoonal trough with multiple wave axii, the possibility of slower tropical development may be a real thing. Though that tends to work itself out when one of the low-level vortices eventually becomes dominate. We'll see how this evolves with 98L. In the meantime, 97L may benefit from the phase much more favorably for TCG in the next 24-36 hrs, as it is certainly isolated, and will position itself in a region of the Caribbean for improved low-level convergence as low-level wind profiles becomes more favorable. Upper divergence isn't an issue. There is some dry air, but the overall upper pattern is favorable.

[ldub23]

Trends today are for  more struggling  weak sauce.

[Windspeed]

[ldub23]

Where  exactly  are the  super favorable  conditions? All i see is  ultra  bone  dry air, massive shear, and  super  upper  lows. Weak sauce at  best. Maybe  if  98L can survive the  super  unfavorable  conditions and stay intact as a wave  it  might  find  a  window somewhere. 

My guess  is the Euro will completely  drop 98L this afternoon. I still hold  out  hope sept 20-oct 10 Might be a  little  better and a real storm might  form. This remains an el nino pattern no matter what SST's are. If you  showed me this  picture and asked  me el nino or la  nina  i would say strong  el nino. Shear  from the east  pac will kill off 97L. 12Z gfs very weak. I  pay no attn to the  canadian. For the  peak of the season and the  supposed super favorable  conditions the  GFS makes  josephine  look like a cat5 compared to 97 and  98L. They are  barely  blips.

[wizard021]

5 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Where  exactly  are the  super favorable  conditions? All i see is  ultra  bone  dry air, massive shear, and  super  upper  lows. Weak sauce at  best. Maybe  if  98L can survive the  super  unfavorable  conditions and stay intact as a wave  it  might  find  a  window somewhere. 

My guess  is the Euro will completely  drop 98L this afternoon. I still hold  out  hope sept 20-oct 10 Might be a  little  better and a real storm might  form.

Dude get a clue there is always tutt lows . It is about how the systems interact with them.  Mjo is phase  soon.

[Orangeburgwx]

Where  exactly  are the  super favorable  conditions? All i see is  ultra  bone  dry air, massive shear, and  super  upper  lows. Weak sauce at  best. Maybe  if  98L can survive the  super  unfavorable  conditions and stay intact as a wave  it  might  find  a  window somewhere. 

My guess  is the Euro will completely  drop 98L this afternoon. I still hold  out  hope sept 20-oct 10 Might be a  little  better and a real storm might  form. This remains an el nino pattern no matter what SST's are. If you  showed me this  picture and asked  me el nino or la  nina  i would say strong  el nino. Shear  from the east  pac will kill off 97L. 12Z gfs very weak. I  pay no attn to the  canadian. For the  peak of the season and the  supposed super favorable  conditions the  GFS makes  josephine  look like a cat5 compared to 97 and  98L. They are  barely  blips.

We are supposed to be in a suppression phase the next 2 weeks anyway, this is just bonus Invests to track

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

[wizard021]

8 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

We are supposed to be in a suppression phase the next 2 weeks anyway, this is just bonus Invests to track

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

Wrong . Phase 8 to 1. Look at the chart .98l is moving into a rising atmosphere not sinking . Don't focus on tutt lows they come and go and can act to enhance outflow.

[wizard021]

[wizard021]

phase 8 to 1 is favorable.  You get most hurricane in phases 8 to 2.

[Windspeed]

We are supposed to be in a suppression phase the next 2 weeks anyway, this is just bonus Invests to track

 

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

 

We've been in an unfavorable phase, but favorable upper 200 hPa vorticity is now spreading over the Atlantic Basin and should have a negative mean through the end of August. Afterwards, a rather neutral phase will persist over the western basin with stronger vorticity remaining over the far EATL/WAM. At any rate, you don't need a strong MJO, you just don't want to see a suppressive regime dominating the entire basin. Upper divergence should persist over the WAM through peak season to keep strong AEWs exiting the African continent.

[Tallis Rockwell]

The models are all over the place for both disturbances from major hurricane to literally nothing. Sounds fun.

[Windspeed]

[ldub23]

97 and  98L Cancel. Euro dropped development as expected. 2020 in the atlantic  is an el nino. I keep hearing about favorble  conditions, but  no one  is telling the  invests they are supposed to be  monsters. Of  course andrew  formed  in an el nino so stay alert especially as the  season nears its  end.

 

this  is the euro. Not a thing to see. Perhaps one good thing. The sal set-up isnt quite as perfect. However, the  large  low  over se  canada sure  is a  bummer.

[Calderon]

5 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

97 and  98L Cancel. Euro dropped development as expected. 2020 in the atlantic  is an el nino. I keep hearing about favorble  conditions, but  no one  is telling the  invests they are supposed to be  monsters.

It's time to cancel your ability to post. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

1 minute ago, Calderon said:

It's time to cancel your ability to post. 

This times 1000x please. 

[wizard021]

6 minutes ago, Calderon said:

It's time to cancel your ability to post. 

Its neutral endo. People r drunk today.