2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Floydbuster]

NHC now up to 40% for both.

[thunderbolt]

13 hours ago, yoda said:

lol using the ICON for tropical systems

Maybe you should start looking at it more often LOL

[ldub23]

GFS says neither wave will do anything. Dead thru Aug and the  el nino in the atlantic  has  no end.

[Windspeed]

12z ECMWF now runs a TC, presumably the AEW that just exited Africa, just north of the Antilles through the Florida Straits and deep into the Gulf. Extends WAR and builds heights. Obviously this is way out in fantasy long range, but we now have a major operational model coming into line with its ensembles. Was only a matter of time. Now we'll just have to be patient and see how TCG occurs and where. Additionally how the upper pattern will unfold as any potential systems reach the WATL. We are too far out to know if any particular potential TC will aligned under a favorable or unfavorable setup. A lot of variables and a lot depends on downstream TUTT evolution, split and where those upper heights build specifically. Overall takeaways should just be increased potential for a long-tracking TC out of the MDR and notable WAR extension.

[wizard021]

3 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

GFS says neither wave will do anything. Dead thru Aug and the  el nino in the atlantic  has  no end.

Ukmet develops the aew into hurricane

[ldub23]

3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

12z ECMWF now runs a TC, presumably the AEW that just exited Africa, just north of the Antilles through the Florida Straits and deep into the Gulf. Extends WAR and builds heights. Obviously this is way out in fantasy long range, but we now have a major operational model coming into line with its ensembles. Was only a matter of time. Now we'll just have to be patient and see how TCG occurs and where. Additionally how the upper pattern will unfold as any potential systems reach the WATL. We are too far out to know if any particular potential TC will aligned under a favorable or unfavorable setup. A lot of variables and a lot depends on downstream TUTT evolution, split and where those upper heights build specifically. Overall takeaways should just be increased potential for a long-tracking TC out of the MDR and notable WAR extension.

Looks rather weak to me but  its  better than the totally  dead GFS.

[Derecho!]

Just now, wizard021 said:

Ukmet develops both nhc areas .

 

51 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

Maybe you should start looking at it more often LOL

Looking at ICON, the CMC, or the NAM for tropical meteorology leaves you with less knowledge about the tropics than you had before you looked at it. 

[ldub23]

3 hours ago, wizard021 said:

Ukmet develops the aew into hurricane

Hopefully  something gets going

 

 

All you need to do is  look at that  picture and  its  clear  just  how  hostile the atlantic  is. The  el nino pacific  looks  good but right  now shear and dry air  is  crushing the atlantic. Alot  of forecasts are down the drain unless things  change. Maybe  some  moisture will get to the atlantic and the  shear will drop. Will be  interesting to see  if  97L can develop. Will be  more  interesting to watch than josephine.

[Windspeed]

In the short-term, the wave just east of the Lesser Antilles does have weak vorticity and increasing convection, especially on its SW axis. Some of last night's EPS showed potential development of this disturbance, though today's 12z ECMWF operational keeps this open into central America. The 12z UKMET and GEM operationals are much more forgiving and do want to produce a TC as it traverses the deep Caribbean. No need to mention the 12z GFS since @Idub23 has that covered into September.

[thunderbolt]

35 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

 

Looking at ICON, the CMC, or the NAM for tropical meteorology leaves you with less knowledge about the tropics than you had before you looked at it. 

You might wanna also add a GFS

[Amped]

GEPS  FTW

[Cyclone-68]

How viable is the homegrown idea off of Virginia on that map?

[Floydbuster]

[Amped]

Quote

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with 
a fast-moving tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the 
Windward Islands.  This system is expected to move westward at 
about 20 mph during the next few days, and that fast speed is 
likely to limit significant development while the system approaches 
the Windward and southern Leeward Islands Monday, and moves across 
the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.  After that time, the system 
is expected to move more slowly westward across the central and 
western Caribbean Sea, and upper-level winds could be conducive for 
development during the middle to latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

97L declared.   GFS now shows something  heading into the NE Yucatan late week.    How strong it gets will depend on how quickly it gets going and how well it avoids land.   

[wizard021]

African wave will be a big hurricane.

[wizard021]

  NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  60 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 14.3N  40.6W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 19.08.2020   60  14.3N  40.6W     1009            27
    0000UTC 20.08.2020   72  16.2N  44.9W     1009            33
    1200UTC 20.08.2020   84  16.9N  49.5W     1009            34
    0000UTC 21.08.2020   96  17.5N  53.1W     1008            33
    1200UTC 21.08.2020  108  18.0N  55.6W     1006            36
    0000UTC 22.08.2020  120  18.9N  58.3W     1004            38
    1200UTC 22.08.2020  132  19.5N  61.5W     1001            41
    0000UTC 23.08.2020  144  20.1N  64.7W      998            47

[wizard021]

I think a west path is favored with a florida landfall most likely i.e andrew/ frances. But we shall see. Euro ensembles clustered near Florida.

[wizard021]

Based on the globals west path is likely, how far north initial movement tied to faster or slower formation. I am sticking with the Ukmet, likely north of islands and west track into florida as a cane.

[Floydbuster]

That CMC run is terrifying. 

[yoda]

1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

That CMC run is terrifying. 

Terrifying in its overdone as usual... CMC is a crap tropical model

And really?  You expect the 2nd tropical system to ride over all of Cuba and deepen?  Come on...

[yoda]

00z Euro doesn't do much with the first wave... 2nd wave it develops looking at 850mb vorticity but then seems to lose it for a while as it heads just north of DR/Haiti and Cuba... then gets its act together again... looks like once it gets into the Eastern GOM it decides to reappear and strengthen... interesting run

[ldub23]

Nothing really has changed.

 

 

EXCEPT THIS!!!!!!!!

[SnoSki14]

Steering pattern favorable for US landfalls, particularly ominous for gulf coast states. 

[Windspeed]

Nice post by Todd Kimberlain. My takeaway here would be AL98 staying relatively weak regardless of TCG until it begins to approach the Lesser Antilles. Lower steering flow will begin to align more with upper steering flow, which would likely allow the system to stack better vertically. The GFS has been a little wonky with convective feedback over the EPAC in the long-range, given some of the oddball convective spin-ups after Genevieve considering the shift of upper 200 hPa vorticity eastward; yet it continues to show a mighty large upper ridge / anticyclone developing over the Caribbean and GOM late in the period, which could spell trouble if a hypothetical TC is moving through the region. There is also a strong STJ that splits flow and ejects eastward over the Southern CONUS. That would seemingly decrease upper level westerlies over the NW Caribbean and GOM downstream. Again, this all means squat if there is no TC there to take advantage. I am still apprehensive of the GFS right now. So take the strong fantasy Caribbean runner with a grain of salt until we actually have a TC to track.

[Windspeed]

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Nothing really has changed.

 

 

EXCEPT THIS!!!!!!!!

What?

[Orangeburgwx]

What?

Big daddy Atlantic ridge... It will smash Texas

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

[ldub23]

12z  Alot weaker. No hurricanes anywhere. More of the same weaksauce.

 

 

East pac active  causing  tons  of shear. A weak sauce low  in  n gom. I guess thats 97L, nothing  but a couple  of  gusty  showers. Maybe that  other weak sauce right  behind  it  is  98L. Peak season and  nothing. Very  hostile everywhere. Dont  care what sst's are, this  is  classic  el nino. Atlantic tutts galore, shear abundant, and dry air  like  a  desert  bone.

[Windspeed]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

GFS finally starting to get a clue. That eastern Atlantic wave should be an invest. It’ll likely develop before 97L. 

Thought that was already deemed 98L. Sometimes they'll discuss them as ALxx. Former NHC Specialist Kimberlain referred to the disturbance as AL98 earlier. At any rate, unsurprisingly the GFS weaker in the mid-to-long range with the potential TC due to tracking through the Greater Antilles and timing/position being not as aligned with strong upper ridging. That upper ridging is a beast though and is probably more the takeaway; i.e., IF a TC gets positioned under that, things could escalate quickly.

[Superstorm93]

Looks like the GFS wants to bring down another TUTT ahead of the system behind 97L and shear/land interaction eventually kill the system off. Pretty notable changes with regards to TCG in general, but we're still a long ways out from knowing is this has a shot at surviving past the islands. 

97L should have a pretty decent environment in the Western Caribbean later this week, but we'll see it if it can slow down to take advantage of it.