2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[WhiteoutWX]

There really have been a lot of crap systems to get us to Josephine so quickly. I wonder how this year compares to 2005 in ACE? Are we still outpacing it? 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

18 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

There really have been a lot of crap systems to get us to Josephine so quickly. I wonder how this year compares to 2005 in ACE? Are we still outpacing it? 

No not in terms of ACE, but in terms of named systems.  The surface low is developing just west of Cape Hatteras, NC on radar.  Banding is present.

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

There really have been a lot of crap systems to get us to Josephine so quickly. I wonder how this year compares to 2005 in ACE? Are we still outpacing it? 

IsasIs wasn't crap up here in NYC and the surrounding areas.

[Windspeed]

There really have been a lot of crap systems to get us to Josephine so quickly. I wonder how this year compares to 2005 in ACE? Are we still outpacing it? 

Are you seriously asking that question? Do you even read this thread? lol... Hell.... Kill me...

[Calderon]

43 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

IsasIs wasn't crap up here in NYC and the surrounding areas.

We're talking about presentation, intensity, ACE, etc. We may be on the "J" name, but 2005 by far blows this season away so far. 

[WhiteoutWX]

43 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

1 hour ago, WhiteoutWX said:

There really have been a lot of crap systems to get us to Josephine so quickly. I wonder how this year compares to 2005 in ACE? Are we still outpacing it? 

Are you seriously asking that question? Do you even read this thread? lol... Hell.... Kill me...

To be honest no I hadn’t been on here in a few days and didn’t read back. I apologize if this was already discussed.

[Floydbuster]

Here's the deal.

2005 was an epic, historically rare meteorological event. Windspeed and I were actually hanging out at a hurricane conference in Florida in May of that year discussing the abnormally low wind shear, excessively hot sea surface temperatures and a satellite image of the Atlantic basin on May 17, 2005 that looked more like a satellite for mid-late July. We knew it would be crazy, and coming off the ravaging of the 2004 hurricane season, the anticipation was higher than you can imagine. I actually remember Windspeed telling me, "Mike, I think we may eventually see a Hurricane "Mitch" type storm with 180 mph winds in the Gulf of Mexico in the next few years...maybe even this year with those crazy SSTs." The fact that Hurricanes Katrina and in particular Rita then rivaled Mitch in the Gulf just 3/4 months later was unimaginable. I also remember us discussing the likelihood of a major hurricane in July, since conditions already seemed so prime. Little did we expect two hurricanes of Category 4 and 5 intensity ravaging the Western Caribbean, Mexico, Cuba and Florida by July 20th.

Almost 30 named storms? Four Category 5 storms?  Give me a break. I was 17 years old. I might see that again if I'm an old man with a huge head of white hair. 2005 was an epic season not seen since 1933. That type of year is almost unbelievable. The chances of it happening even during hyperactive seasons is unlikely.

1. This has been, and looks to be, a very-severe record breaking hurricane season. This is backed up by the fact that we have outpaced the records of 2005 for number of named storms, have extremely high oceanic heat content anomalies, forecasts of very lower-than-normal wind shear during the heart of the season, above average rainfall over Africa, and a likely extremely favorable MJO push from late August through mid-September. Add to this what appears to be a possible troublesome pattern for U.S. landfalls including having already seen the landfalls of two potent hurricanes and three tropical storms, this season is ringing alarm bells. Indeed, I believe this is the first time Dr. Klotzbach has forecast the Greek Alphabet since we used it back in 2005.

Even if we didn't name two or three weak and short lived storms (Bertha, Dolly and Edouard), we would still be tracking the "G" storm, which would put us at roughly the level 2005 had at this point. So while it's not "2005" just the fact that it's rivaling 2005 in the number of named storms is disturbing because of how active that means things are.

2. Intense Julys aren't always harbingers of active seasons, but they often are. 1996 had two July hurricanes (Bertha and Cesar, one a major hurricane). 2008 had two July hurricanes (Bertha and Dolly, one a major hurricane). Those years ended up very destructive with infamous storms like Hurricane Fran and Hurricanes Gustav, Ike and Paloma. However, 2005 was different. In July, we had two major hurricanes, both were 130 kt+ Cat 4/5 storms, and one hit the U.S. as a major hurricane. The historical significance of Hurricane Dennis cannot be underscored enough. Dennis was the first major hurricane to strike the U.S. before August since Audrey in 1957, 48 years prior. That's almost five decades, half a century. Not only that, but the last time a July hurricane struck America as a major Cat 3+ was a 1916 Gulf Coast storm 89 years before. Before that, it was the 1909 Velasco hurricane, 96 years before.

That should show how rare an event a July major hurricane landfall in the United States is. If you average out the four major hurricanes that hit the U.S. before August in the last Century, 

1909, 1916, 1957, 2005

The mean and median of those years are 32 and 41 years, respectively. That means, on average, those events happen once every 30 or 40 years. Three times in the 20th Century, once (so far) in the 21st. Dennis was a rare event, and it made 2005's July much more severe than 2020. However, just the fact that we had two hurricanes make U.S. landfall before mid-August is quite intense, and I actually think Hurricane Hanna was an impressive storm. 973 mb, well defined eye, and a fierce battering for the Texas coastline. Isaias was also no puppydog. 

The bottom line:

No two hurricane seasons are exactly the same, and 2005 was a rare event. However, that doesn't downplay the amount of pre-August activity we've had so far, and the indications that 2020 will be a very active peak season. 

 

[yoda]

Its just model runs, but none of the 00z runs tonight (EURO/GFS and yes, even the GGEM) show any tropical disturbances or development anywhere besides Josephine disappearing in a few days and maybe Kyle going out to sea in the North Atlantic.  Pacific side of things there is some development... and both the Euro and the GFS tonight both show an intense tropical system out there.  Seems we may be waiting more towards the first week of September for tropical development out in the CV region.  Of course, this could change on the next run of the models... but so far, the Atlantic is quiet.  Could it be a ticking time bomb waiting to explode once a strong wave comes off the coast of Africa?  Yes, most likely... but models see nothing... for now

I'm not trying to downplay the risks or the signs or call bust... far from it.  Just calling it as I see it on the models right now.  Seems we may have to wait just a lil bit longer for the Atlantic side of the Tropics to rear its ugly head again

[NorthHillsWx]

Based on satellite and radar, I believe we have another storm off the east coast... Here in Nags Head for the week and you wouldn’t know it. Very little swell, few rain bands moving through.

[cptcatz]

What a weak storm to break Katrina's record. Watch we get to the Greek letters by mid September with nothing stronger than a cat 1...

[ldub23]

GFS EURO still show  nothing. Joe  Bastardi says  we  may get laura right  behind  kyle. another very  weak low. Just when are the  super favorable  conditions going to arrive? CV season doesnt  last  but  so long.

[Hc7]

17 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

discussing the abnormally low wind shear, excessively hot sea surface temperatures and a satellite image of the Atlantic basin on May 17, 2005 that looked more like a satellite for mid-late July. We knew it would be crazy, and coming off the ravaging of the 2004 hurricane season,

Correct me if I’m wrong, but this sounds eerily similar to what the climate in the Atlantic is like right now, just without the same low shear due to the position of the MJO? It sounds like once we get towards the end of August, and the shear dissipates significantly with the MJO coming in, it will create a climate not unlike the one that unfolded in 2005(except in 2020 it’s obviously taken until the end of August to create similar conditions instead of May/June) if I’m interpreting it correctly as a novice? The pace at which TS are forming this year despite lacking Very favorable conditions so far has got to be extremely worrisome, if anything we’ve been very lucky the conditions have been modest at best for TS intensification.  
 

I mentioned something similar to another Met who didn’t get back to me yet, but it really seems like it’s going to be a ticking time bomb out in the Atlantic once the shear gets pushed out by the MJO, what is your opinion on what to expect(Well, more importantly what to PREPARE for in a few weeks? I have limited experience/knowledge but it really seems like conditions will be eerily similar to June 2005 by the end of August, and given the extreme activity that’s been present it would be seem like that activity should if anything pick up, as well as obviously pick up the intensity of the storms as well, right? 

[Hc7]

19 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

What a weak storm to break Katrina's record. Watch we get to the Greek letters by mid September with nothing stronger than a cat 1...

That seem unlikely with the MJO shifting and conditions becoming near perfect in a week or so, no? I think we’d be verrrry lucky if the favorable conditions coming up only increase an already extremely active season, but Not the intensity. 

[cptcatz]

3 minutes ago, Hc7 said:

That seem unlikely with the MJO shifting and conditions becoming near perfect in a week or so, no? I think we’d be verrrry lucky if the favorable conditions coming up only increase an already extremely active season, but Not the intensity. 

Just seems for the past two months they've been saying "just wait, in two weeks it's really gonna pick up"

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Just seems for the past two months they've been saying "just wait, in two weeks it's really gonna pick up"

You're still getting spin-ups despite unfavorable conditions. 

It's only a matter of time before storms go nuts. 

[Windspeed]

Just seems for the past two months they've been saying "just wait, in two weeks it's really gonna pick up"

That already occurred the last week of July and first week of August. We had a two week stretch that had two hurricane landfalls. Were conditions perfect for a major? No, but Hanna would have been a major given 6 to 12 more hours over the western GOM. It was a very well-developed hurricane intensifying right up to landfall with a symmetrical eyewall. Would that being a major hurricane at landfall really change the conversation about this quieter stretch? Not really in my opinion. We'd still have some struggling systems until conditions flip to more favorable in the coming weeks. Again, it's August 13th.

[ldub23]

31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You're still getting spin-ups despite unfavorable conditions. 

It's only a matter of time before storms go nuts. 

 

Just  looking at that you would think we  have an el nino. Moisture, low  pressure and  no windshear  in the east  pac, dry air, shear, and  above  normal pressure  in the  MDR.. Thats also a  perfect set  up for  more huge  SAL outbreaks. Sal is  going to be  going strong with that set  up. High pressures much too far south. Going  out  further it says the  first  half  of the  CV season is dead. Perhaps when the flood  pattern ends we  may have a  mini-burst from sept 20-oct 10 if the  conditions ever  become  favorable.

[ldub23]

4 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Just seems for the past two months they've been saying "just wait, in two weeks it's really gonna pick up"

That already occurred the last week of July and first week of August. We had a two week stretch that had two hurricane landfalls. Were conditions perfect for a major? No, but Hanna would have been a major given 6 to 12 more hours over the western GOM. It was a very well-developed hurricane intensifying right up to landfall with a symmetrical eyewall. Would that being a major hurricane at landfall really change the conversation about this quieter stretch? Not really in my opinion. We'd still have some struggling systems until conditions flip to more favorable in the coming weeks. Again, it's August 13th.

I see that  alot about "if it  just  had a  few  more  hours  over water". Maybe  conditions were so bad  over the water that it  takes the  shape of the  coast for  a  little intensification just  before landfall and  if  it  had stayed over water longer  it would still be a cat 1.

[Windspeed]

I see that  alot about "if it  just  had a  few  more  hours  over water". Maybe  conditions were so bad  over the water that it  takes the  shape of the  coast for  a  little intensification just  before landfall and  if  it  had stayed over water longer  it would still be a cat 1.

Then you would be failing to see or underselling the favorable atmospheric conditions that were developing over Hanna and over the western GOM. It just ran out of time to see that potential through.

[TheDreamTraveler]

15 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

17 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

I see that  alot about "if it  just  had a  few  more  hours  over water". Maybe  conditions were so bad  over the water that it  takes the  shape of the  coast for  a  little intensification just  before landfall and  if  it  had stayed over water longer  it would still be a cat 1.

 

Then you would be failing to see or underselling the favorable atmospheric conditions that were developing over Hanna and over the western GOM. It just ran out of time to see that potential through.

Yep Hanna was intensifying pretty quickly but ran out of water. Otherwise we could have been talking about a cat 2 or 3 potentially making landfall in the US in July. Hanna was very impressive and the wind speeds never caught up due to land interaction and lack of time.

[Tallis Rockwell]

Why in the world are so many disparaging this season!? "It's not as intense as 2005 or not a lot of intense systems so far." It hasn't reached the seasonal peak yet! Still ten more days until things actually become favorable for more intense storms. So what if it isn't like 2005? 2017 had fewer hurricanes and lower ACE but was costlier and had a comparable death toll. 2005 should never be the bar minimum for an active season or even hyperactive season. After the largest dust plume in 50 years, sinking air masses, considerable shear, and after factoring out some of the less impressive systems,THE SEASON IS STILL IMPRESSIVE. The models aren't infallible especially this far out and this season's model performance have not been impressive.  Sure it's possible that the shear doesn't go down and the dry air continues for the rest of the year but nothing has come to suggest that.

[cptcatz]

14 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

Why in the world are so many disparaging this season!? "It's not as intense as 2005 or not a lot of intense systems so far." It hasn't reached the seasonal peak yet! Still ten more days until things actually become favorable for more intense storms. So what if it isn't like 2005? 2017 had fewer hurricanes and lower ACE but was costlier and had a comparable death toll. 2005 should never be the bar minimum for an active season or even hyperactive season. After the largest dust plume in 50 years, sinking air masses, considerable shear, and after factoring out some of the less impressive systems,THE SEASON IS STILL IMPRESSIVE. The models aren't infallible especially this far out and this season's model performance have not been impressive.  Sure it's possible that the shear doesn't go down and the dry air continues for the rest of the year but nothing has come to suggest that.

I think it's a combination of:

- The forecasts calling for a hyperactive season

- People are stuck at home bored because of this whole pandemic thing so we are trying to find any kind of excitement we can find

- We are expecting big things because it's 2020

Speaking for myself, this has been the most boring summer of my life. My only excitement every day is waiting for the next model run. 

[Tallis Rockwell]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

I think it's a combination of:

- The forecasts calling for a hyperactive season

- People are stuck at home bored because of this whole pandemic thing so we are trying to find any kind of excitement we can find

- We are expecting big things because it's 2020

Speaking for myself, this has been the most boring summer of my life. My only excitement every day is waiting for the next model run. 

This coronavirus lifestyle has been my life for almost all of my 20 years so nothing has changed for me this year!

I should probably see a therapist though.

[RandyHolt]

10 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Based on satellite and radar, I believe we have another storm off the east coast... Here in Nags Head for the week and you wouldn’t know it. Very little swell, few rain bands moving through.

I am in Kitty Hawk for the week and saw a bit of rotation on radar to the south.  The water has been very calm.  It has barely rained here.

[bigtenfan]

7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Discussion is good and different opinions are good but let’s remember a couple of things:

-Both hurricanes landfalled, were strengthening on final approach, and one caused billions in damage

-This season has produced the most TCs to date.

-This season has the third most named storm days at this point, behind 2008 and 2005

-ACE is well ahead of the climatological average

-Wind shear is historically low. Top 5 at least

-SSTs are historically warm. Top 3 broadly and some parts of the basin are warmest ever recorded

The season thus far is awfully impressive even in the absence of a major hurricane, and the environment is primed for a big peak. 

I see it as a situation of buying time. While the models are certainly not the be all to end all, the fact that they now go out to Aug 31 with really nothing in the MDR means to me that if it verifies we will have gotten through the first 25% of peak season without any majors. I know that it can change on a dime but as a Palm Beach County  property owner I am just taking it model run by model run.

[Rhino16]

16 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

I see it as a situation of buying time. While the models are certainly not the be all to end all, the fact that they now go out to Aug 31 with really nothing in the MDR means to me that if it verifies we will have gotten through the first 25% of peak season without any majors. I know that it can change on a dime but as a Palm Beach County  property owner I am just taking it model run by model run.

But, it kinda seems you don’t know if a tropical system happens until it actually starts happening if that makes any sense.

[ldub23]

I  have been reading the GFS shows the  MJO doesnt get favorable  in the atlantic thru its whole run. Easterly  waves arent doing anything but  who knows  how  many weak storms the westerly  waves coming  off virginia will produce. not  until the  flood  pattern ends will the season get active but  by then it  may be very  late. Still think sept20-oct 10 might  have a few real storms. This  just  shows  how  meaningless SST's are.

[Amped]

Finally some sub 1000mb lows in the basin on the CMC at hr 180.  

[Rhino16]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

I  have been reading the GFS shows the  MJO doesnt get favorable  in the atlantic thru its whole run. Easterly  waves arent doing anything but  who knows  how  many weak storms the westerly  waves coming  off virginia will produce. not  until the  flood  pattern ends will the season get active but  by then it  may be very  late. Still think sept20-oct 10 might  have a few real storms. This  just  shows  how  meaningless SST's are.

Apparently the GEFS hasn’t been handling things correctly according to @MJVentrice on Twitter...

[Orangeburgwx]

Apparently the GEFS hasn’t been handling things correctly according to @MJVentrice on Twitter...

Yep

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