2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Windspeed]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Lots  of dry air  and  shear. TD11 is another struggler. Everything shouldnt  be struggling  if preseason forecasts  of favorable  conditions were right. 5/2/1 rest  of the season though the way they name things these days  11/2/1 is  possible. 20/4/1 for the season?

If I read you right, you're calling for 2 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane the remainder of the season? I mean that's fine but you realize it's August 12th? Climatological favorability across the basin doesn't normally kick in until around August 20th-26th even in active years. I think a lot of folks fail to realize how quickly an unfavorable synoptic and environmental pattern can transition to favorable. Shear issues appear to be short-term. The hostile westerly upper level flow across the Caribbean is due to the current convective outbreak in the Eastern Pacific. However, more favorable upper 200 hPa vorticity will shift to over the Atlantic Basin by August 20th. Westerly windshear will decrease as the EPAC swings into a more suppressed regime. Likewise the strong easterly 700 hPa windbursts that have driven SAL will back down as Azores SPHP shifts into a more SER/WAR extended pattern (as is typical does this time of year). As such, the MDR will moisten for the September run. Sub-800 hPa to sea level pressures have already been running lower than climatological mean. All these factors within consideration, I think some folks are going to be taken surprise during the peak regardless of the active to hyperactive forecasts.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

If I read you right, you're calling for 2 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane the remainder of the season? I mean that's fine but you realize it's August 12th? Climatological favorability across the basin doesn't normally kick in until around August 20th-26th even in active years. I think a lot of folks fail to realize how quickly an unfavorable synoptic and environmental pattern can transition to favorable.

Besides...we don't have to look too far back to see that: just look how 2017 turned on a dime! Here we are looking up at the eclipse...and the next thing you know (like literally starting the next week)...Harvey, Irma.....eventually Maria, and others! I don't even know much about how stuff happens in the tropics...but that year was enough to convince me about how quickly things can change!

[Derecho!]

3 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Lots  of dry air  and  shear. TD11 is another struggler. Everything shouldnt  be struggling  if preseason forecasts  of favorable  conditions were right. 5/2/1 rest  of the season though the way they name things these days  11/2/1 is  possible. 20/4/1 for the season?

For whatever reason there are a lot of people who consistently are a month off in their perception of a normal Atlantic tropical season peak. It's September 10th, not August 10th. 

[Rhino16]

3 hours ago, Derecho! said:

For whatever reason there are a lot of people who consistently are a month off in their perception of a normal Atlantic tropical season peak. It's September 10th, not August 10th. 

Maybe it’s because August 10th feels like the middle of summer, and summer feels like hurricanes, while September is when school starts again, its maybe cooler (good luck with that) and it doesn’t feel like summer therefor, it feels less like peak season...

[Windspeed]

Maybe it’s because August 10th feels like the middle of summer, and summer feels like hurricanes, while September is when school starts again, its maybe cooler (good luck with that) and it doesn’t feel like summer therefor, it feels less like peak season...

In a meteorological sense, it's called oceanic lag time. The ocean heat content always lags behind atmospheric mean temperature gain. It also takes time, even in the most favorable large scale patterns, for hurricane season to reach fruition.

[cptcatz]

42 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Maybe it’s because August 10th feels like the middle of summer, and summer feels like hurricanes, while September is when school starts again, its maybe cooler (good luck with that) and it doesn’t feel like summer therefor, it feels less like peak season...

Is that how it is every year? I feel like this year is different because this summer sucked, no one traveled, no one was really able to do anything fun, everyone just stayed home doing nothing, so we're all just here waiting for some action. 

[ldub23]

8 hours ago, Windspeed said:

If I read you right, you're calling for 2 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane the remainder of the season? I mean that's fine but you realize it's August 12th? Climatological favorability across the basin doesn't normally kick in until around August 20th-26th even in active years. I think a lot of folks fail to realize how quickly an unfavorable synoptic and environmental pattern can transition to favorable. Shear issues appear to be short-term. The hostile westerly upper level flow across the Caribbean is due to the current convective outbreak in the Eastern Pacific. However, more favorable upper 200 hPa vorticity will shift to over the Atlantic Basin by August 20th. Westerly windshear will decrease as the EPAC swings into a more suppressed regime. Likewise the strong easterly 700 hPa windbursts that have driven SAL will back down as Azores SPHP shifts into a more SER/WAR extended pattern (as is typical does this time of year). As such, the MDR will moisten for the September run. Sub-800 hPa to sea level pressures have already been running lower than climatological mean. All these factors within consideration, I think some folks are going to be taken surprise during the peak regardless of the active to hyperactive forecasts.

Im looking out to aug  21 and the gfs and euro show  nothing. GFS does  have some  kind  of weak low right  in the middle  of the atlantic but all that will do is  kill off MDR development. Just shows above  normal SST's dont mean much. I think CSU is already  regretting  24/10/5 especially the  cane  numbers.

[Amped]

12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Reposting here to save me the work  

 

 I am wondering how Carolina shelf waters are so warm after Isaias. Maybe that's an error or they changed the calculation?   There's TCHP along the coast in a lot of other places where there wasn't much before 2020

[TradeWinds]

23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Reposting here to save me the work  

 

Those anomalies off the Florida coastline stick out.  I read Biscayne Bay hit 90F this week.

[Hoth]

8 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Im looking out to aug  21 and the gfs and euro show  nothing. GFS does  have some  kind  of weak low right  in the middle  of the atlantic but all that will do is  kill off MDR development. Just shows above  normal SST's dont mean much. I think CSU is already  regretting  24/10/5 especially the  cane  numbers.

Since you made similar time of death declarations for the 2017 season a week before the Atlantic went bonkers, I'll take your thoughts as another favorable data point for a hyperactive peak.

[SnoSki14]

There always seems to be a lull around this time as its a transition point between early & peak activity. Even 2005 had a break in early to mid August. 

However with a massive MJO wave moving east and shear on the decline there's very likely to be a surge just after the 20th. There's zero evidence of a 2013 repeat. 

Also just look at the e. Pacific and their current activity, that'll be us in about 10 days or so. Steering currents also favor west tracks vs OTS storms.

[ldub23]

I was wrong  about CSU. They changed to 24/12/5 so 15/10/5 for the rest  of the season. And while  in a  normal season it wouldnt  necessarily  be  busy now they are predicting a hyper active season and  everything shouldnt  be struggling. All i am saying  is 10 more hurricanes and  5 majors better be happening  soon.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

I was wrong  about CSU. They changed to 24/12/5 so 15/10/5 for the rest  of the season. And while  in a  normal season it wouldnt  necessarily  be  busy now they are predicting a hyper active season and  everything shouldnt  be struggling. All i am saying  is 10 more hurricanes and  5 majors better be happening  soon.

Check out the date and get back to me

[Windspeed]

12 hours ago, Amped said:

 I am wondering how Carolina shelf waters are so warm after Isaias. Maybe that's an error or they changed the calculation?   There's TCHP along the coast in a lot of other places where there wasn't much before 2020

Isaias was a fast mover and the depth of the 26° isotherm is very anomalous off the SE CONUS this year. It's been a very hot Summer with limited cloud cover and few stalled boundaries, especially over the past 30-40 days. Everything on the shelf is above 26°C now based on AOML; and since the shallow layer for SSTs is only 25-30 meters at depth, it essentially is anomalously warm right up to the shoreline. Though keep in mind, the isotherm map isn't on the same scale, as the shallow shelf is only 50 meters deep at interaction with the Gulf Stream, where, at that point, it drops well below 100 meters on a much higher gradient extending ESE. This may also be throwing off the TCHP map as depth of 26ºC isotherm is one of the data sets along with immediate surface layer temperature profiles. In past years, the shallow shelf was hardly represented by the 26º isotherm. Perhaps in recent years this was changed in the way data was displayed; however, if the entire shelf is above that isotherm, it should still be represented in the immediate surface layer at ~30 meter estimate.

Though Isaias' low level circulation was amplified by a tropical low level southerly jet on its eastern semicircle due to trough interaction, it was really moving too fast and had too small an RMW to do anything but perhaps upwell and push ~28°C water from 50+ meters depth down the shelf near the Gulf Stream. The immediate landfall area did cool a few degrees, but that appears to be rebounding fast due to hot days + clear skies. Also recall that Isaias only managed to regain hurricane intensity very near the South Carolina shoreline. Additionally, it remained rather devoid of convection on its southern semicircle and struggled to mix down higher winds until interaction with the coast. Its windfield only expand near landfall with influence of the low level jet and baroclinic enhancement up the Mid-Atlantic coast.

In comparison, Hanna was a slow mover with a much broader low level circulation as it traversed the Central GOM and had a large region of persistent intense multi-convective systems that did a number on the shallow layer heat content, not to mention some extended upwelling. But that's been several weeks ago and, unsurprisingly, the Central and WGOM immediate shallow layer is running ~29-31°C again.

[ldub23]

GFS out to aug  29th shows  nothing. Its going to be  one  heck of a sept, or  not. And while  i believe they upgraded  td 11 its  just going to collapse  of respiratory  failure.

[MJO812]

Josephine  has formed 

Conditions doesn't look good moving forward with her development 

[Windspeed]

41 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

GFS out to aug  29th shows  nothing. Its going to be  one  heck of a sept, or  not. And while  i believe they upgraded  td 11 its  just going to collapse  of respiratory  failure.

Last night's ECMWF ensembles were picking up on a AEW in the 7-10 day range and developing it near the Northern Leeward Islands. To be honest, the operationals have not been the greatest this year on TCGs. The GFS op even ghosted a CA monsoonal gyre last week and went so far to produce a fantasy GOM hurricane over many consecutive runs. Odd fantasy TCGs aren't unusual, but entire monsoonal gyres are. They also have not handled positioning of upper 200 hPa vorticity well for convection. So the GFS may've just had that too far displaced east over the Caribbean. WPAC TCG has been off as well in the operationals. At any rate, complaining aside, I'm not sure if it's a lack of global flight data or just bad luck. We're still in the long range for improving pattern and environmental factors in the 10+ day range, however. You want to focus more on ensembles in the long-range and ops for short-term TCG. But even in the short-term, the ops haven't been great.

[NorthHillsWx]

Love people declaring the season a bust when we’ve already had over $5 billion in US damages alone, record breaking 10th named storm by August 13, more than a week ahead of 2005, and seen storms popping in even unfavorable conditions. Wait till the Atlantic gets right here in a couple weeks... 

[ldub23]

The  10 named storms have averaged about  2.3 ace  per storm. This is  not  2005. Joesephine  is  going to fall apart  over  very  warm water. 12z GFS says  the  lid  isnt  coming  off.

[Windspeed]

55 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

The  10 named storms have averaged about  2.3 ace  per storm. This is  not  2005. Joesephine  is  going to fall apart  over  very  warm water. 12z GFS says  the  lid  isnt  coming  off.

Has anyone said it was? Seems like most, including myself in recent posts, have gone to great lengths to cite the differences. Yet, ACE is still more than double climatological average for this date. It's also just Aug. 12th and we've had two hurricane landfalls in 2020 in addition to an ongoing TCG during an unfavorable period.

You keep harping a specific operational model, in this case the GFS in the long-range, over and over again. I am uncertain why you are trying to climb upon this hill which to die. It's premature to do so a month prior to climatological peak. Counter arguments already established in this thread that we are in a less active period. It is too early to be locking down on a 240+ long-range operational output to make heads or tales of what will or will not occur versus just utilizing climatological modeling tools that such scenarios are better intended and better suited, such as ensemble precipitation guidance, long-range pattern and oscillation modeling, which do suggest a ramp up of activity across the Atlantic Basin in a few weeks.

[Windspeed]

TAFB/NHC has issued a code yellow for a weak disturbance near the North Carolina coastline that is forecast to move ENE in the coming days with 20/30 probs. It does have weak mid-level vorticity and could take on more tropical characteristics in the coming days as the system moves out into the open Atlantic.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
upgraded Tropical Storm Josephine, located over the tropical 
Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

1. A low pressure area over eastern North Carolina is expected to move 
east-northeastward across the north Atlantic well to the south of 
New England and the Canadian Maritime provinces for the next several 
days.  This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical 
characteristics during the next two to three days while it moves 
over warm sea surface temperatures.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[CheeselandSkies]

Might I remind everyone that @ldub23 gave us possibly the worst-aging post in the history of weather forums on August 19, 2017:

Quote

Wasnt  much of a  burst and Harvey dissipated as  i expected. Looks  like thru mid sept at least  it will be rather quiet.

 

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Might I remind everyone that @ldub23 gave us possibly the worst-aging post in the history of weather forums on August 19, 2017:

 

It didnt age fast  enough!!

[Alfoman]

1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Might I remind everyone that @ldub23 gave us possibly the worst-aging post in the history of weather forums on August 19, 2017:

 

This is typically what happens when you mix emotions into meteorology. Of course tracking long range hurricanes can be exciting for enthusiasts and professionals alike, but at the end of the day we are just observers. It can be difficult to separate the two when you enjoy the topic so much, and it can cloud your judgement to the point where you feel disappointed when death/destruction is not on the menu. It has happened to us all at some point. A weak storm that produces 2 ACE is still a designated tropical system that is worth observing, because at the end of the day it is a data point that will help improve future forecasting. 

But if his quote should bring anything to light, it is that you never know what a season will bring to the table until it is over. Two weeks can be the difference between a struggling tropical storm fighting off significant shear and multiple consecutive long-range MDR hurricanes.  

All we can do is watch.

[Tallis Rockwell]

Why in the world is there literally nothing on the models? Usually I would see some fake storms by now but nothing!

[Derecho!]

19 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

Why in the world is there literally nothing on the models? Usually I would see some fake storms by now but nothing!

"Boguscanes" (That's an actual term used in academic papers on models) have been drastically reduced.

https://ams.confex.com/ams/99annual/abstracts/687.htm

15-20 years ago the AVN/MRF (predecessor to the GFS) would typically have 2-3 non-existent hurricanes per run in August and September. 

[SENC]

4 hours ago, Windspeed said:

TAFB/NHC has issued a code yellow for a weak disturbance near the North Carolina coastline that is forecast to move ENE in the coming days with 20/30 probs. It does have weak mid-level vorticity and could take on more tropical characteristics in the coming days as the system moves out into the open Atlantic.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
upgraded Tropical Storm Josephine, located over the tropical 
Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

1. A low pressure area over eastern North Carolina is expected to move 
east-northeastward across the north Atlantic well to the south of 
New England and the Canadian Maritime provinces for the next several 
days.  This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical 
characteristics during the next two to three days while it moves 
over warm sea surface temperatures.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Beven

May I please "comment" on this Code yellow , I've not really mentioned this, just "observations" via Radar/Nexrad, It's been, how can I say? Almost a Homebrew? system thats been just off the coast now,, for several days, bringing Numerous Showers & T-storms across My area, here on the coast.. You could actually "see" the cyclonic Motions on Radar, (the past 3 days),,  though I've NOT said anything, being a Weather weenie & all that.. interesting,, nether-the-less, for a possible "homebrew" system.. Maybe @shaggy &  @downeastnc, can chime in Since they are also close to "Coastal" areas here in SENC, abit just north, closer to Morehead City.. It's downright TROPICAL HUMIDITY,  right now here just north of Wilmington..

[Stradivarious]

a trend?

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[yoda]

Watch this become Kyle just because

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Josephine, located over the tropical Atlantic Ocean several 
hundred miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

1. A broad area of low pressure over eastern North Carolina is 
forecast to move east-northeastward across the north Atlantic well 
to the southeast of New England and to the south of the Canadian 
Maritime provinces over the next several days.  This system could 
acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next 
few days while it moves over warm sea surface temperatures of the 
Gulf Stream.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

[Maestrobjwa]

7 hours ago, Windspeed said:

TAFB/NHC has issued a code yellow for a weak disturbance near the North Carolina coastline that is forecast to move ENE in the coming days with 20/30 probs. It does have weak mid-level vorticity and could take on more tropical characteristics in the coming days as the system moves out into the open Atlantic.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
upgraded Tropical Storm Josephine, located over the tropical 
Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

1. A low pressure area over eastern North Carolina is expected to move 
east-northeastward across the north Atlantic well to the south of 
New England and the Canadian Maritime provinces for the next several 
days.  This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical 
characteristics during the next two to three days while it moves 
over warm sea surface temperatures.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Beven

Man I didn't even know that could happen there, lol (of course I'm just an amateur hobbyist when it comes to this stuff!)