Amped Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 Models trends with the central Atlantic cutoff. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say it might be bigger and stronger than currently shown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 *for entertainment purposes only* 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natedizel Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 18 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: *for entertainment purposes only* I can see it now. If that happened cuba would think we have a machine to send it back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 5 hours ago, natedizel said: I can see it now. If that happened cuba would think we have a machine to send it back. Hurricane Elian Gonzalez 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Good Friday morning everyone, I am paying attention to the pattern around October 25-27. Zeta (my expectation only-if the earlier near Bermuda system ~10/20-22 doesn't get named Epsilon, then I suspect the FL system around 24th-25th would be Epsilon). We'll see if the 500 MB pattern adjusts to a sharper trough near 80-85W longitude as the EPS is starting to trend recently. If not, then no problem. 00z/16 NAEFS shows something along the se USA coast then peeling out to sea northeastward. VERY VERY early (9 days) but based on multi op models and multiple ensembles, am glad am not cruising Bermuda to Key West...I think its going to be a little on the rough side as opposed to typical daily tropical. Again, only what I'm looking for. It still may not pan out. 657A/16 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 The flip flop continues for the potential storm end of Oct. EPS pretty much all out to sea. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, TradeWinds said: The flip flop continues for the potential storm end of Oct. EPS pretty much all out to sea. Para looks like it ends up in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 35 minutes ago, TradeWinds said: The flip flop continues for the potential storm end of Oct. EPS pretty much all out to sea. That's not OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That's not OTS I was referring to EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 OP GFS now hits Nantucket, Cape Cod, and Northeast tip of Maine at 950 mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Just for fun: I've finally found the LR GEFS wave and wind forecast site for the Atlantic. Graphic below is for chance of wave heights above 12 feet around 10/25. This is accomplished without the 00z/16 OP contribution from (?Zeta? = Cuba-FL vicinity). Note the sw Atlantic. I checked Cyclone Phase Analysis and Forecasting for the Bermuda - Central Atlantic storm of 20-23... its warm core on all models. To me, that suggests a named storm eventually. Probs slowly coming up on the TWO. SST may be a little marginal in the initiation area but if it does slip southwest for a while, it may move over more favorable ocean heat. Also, SST continue a bit above normal se USA coast and e GMEX and anomaly is tending to depart positively a bit there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 54 minutes ago, Derecho! said: OP GFS now hits Nantucket, Cape Cod, and Northeast tip of Maine at 950 mb. That's a shockingly LP....would it be extratropical at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 GFS digs the southern stream a lot more this run. End result, a TC phasing with a bomb cyclone. You better hope that thing stays offshore, 250 miles west and it's hurricane force winds along almost the entire east coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS digs the southern stream a lot more this run. End result, a TC phasing with a bomb cyclone. You better hope that thing stays offshore, 250 miles west and it's hurricane force winds along almost the entire east coast. Dammmmmmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Looks a lot like the output from the Euro 2 weeks ago. Just a giant elongated wind field. Euro keeps showing a 2nd system trying to form in the western gulf. Although no other model is showing second low pressure in the GOM, all of them have lower pressures there than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 NHC up to 60% on the Bermuda storm (Epsilon?) at 2P/16. This one apparently will probably stay out there vicinity Bermuda before taking off northeast after the 22nd? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 I "think" Epsilon gets named within 48 hours. Here's some prelim multi-model intensity guidance and EPS tracks. Bermuda area. I think this is the first publicly available non NHC specific ensemble= guidance. Use your best judgement. Last I checked today, Tropical Phase Cyclone guidance suggested warm core symmetric for this. Let's see what happens. No matter, I'm leaving any topic naming on this forum and all the tropical details of intensification/track/broadening coverage to our group participants, since I'm no tropical expert. I just like that the models have been onto this for quite awhile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Euro looks like it's also moving to a two TC scenario so it may be playing catch up here. GFS has had it like this for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 3 hours ago, wdrag said: NHC up to 60% on the Bermuda storm (Epsilon?) at 2P/16. This one apparently will probably stay out there vicinity Bermuda before taking off northeast after the 22nd? Pumping up the ridge for the second TC, Walt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 18z GFS has Caribbean storm landfalling at Jupiter, FL moving just inland of Vero, stalling then moving SW into Gulf. Change looks due to 2 things: 1) Atlantic storm weak and east. 2) Trough in the plains is not as sharp so storm coming out of Gulf doesn't get pushed out. Flip Flop continues. Will be curious to see the ensembles. Several were showing west movement at 12z and I believe one EPS...will need to see if this is a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 18z GFS is drunk, go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, cptcatz said: 18z GFS is drunk, go home. ha, it's doing a 06z Para only that one straight to TX. 00z should correct like Para did although I have seen a few more members hint at a turn west. So far out and so many factors. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Hi! Been asked a question: Trying to save a little time... if someone here has an answer, could you reply. Thank you. 2005? Some sources have listed it as having 27 TS, others 28? Which is correct? Since there are 21 letters of the English alphabet used and the last storm that year was Zeta (6th letter of the Greek alphabet) wouldn't that mean there were 27 TS that year not 28? Walt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, wdrag said: Hi! Been asked a question: Trying to save a little time... if someone here has an answer, could you reply. Thank you. 2005? Some sources have listed it as having 27 TS, others 28? Which is correct? Since there are 21 letters of the English alphabet used and the last storm that year was Zeta (6th letter of the Greek alphabet) wouldn't that mean there were 27 TS that year not 28? Walt there was an unnamed storm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Azores_subtropical_storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Looking more at the 18z GFS, if that were actually to verify, that would be three straight days of hurricane or tropical storm conditions for me here in Boca Raton. From 06z Sunday to 06z Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 13 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Looking more at the 18z GFS, if that were actually to verify, that would be three straight days of hurricane or tropical storm conditions for me here in Boca Raton. From 06z Sunday to 06z Wednesday. And we don’t need any more rain here in the Jupiter area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: And we don’t need any more rain here in the Jupiter area Been wet recently or for the summer? It's been very dry the last couple weeks in Orlando. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 11 minutes ago, TradeWinds said: Been wet recently or for the summer? It's been very dry the last couple weeks in Orlando. We have had almost 20” in the last 3 weeks in Southeastern part of Martin County with some dry days in between 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 GEFS is also showing another Caribbean storm around November 1. This one next week may not be the last... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finatic jason Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 19 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: We have had almost 20” in the last 3 weeks in Southeastern part of Martin County with some dry days in between Few miles makes all the difference..... while it’s been a bit wet in Jupiter Farms I had to water my new bushes last night . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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