Prospero Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 47 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: Lol. They sure do. Just need a model to hug tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 If you cancel the season every week, eventually you will be right! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 Model for us to hug this morning around Tampa Bay... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 5 Day Outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 16 hours ago, Prospero said: Model for us to hug this morning around Tampa Bay... Well this certainly would be interesting for us, but I don’t see any chance it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 Gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Gfs FWIW CMC has system in western GOM around the same time frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 GFS-Para. A major storm taking this western route into Miami would be catastrophic in terms of storm surge. That right front quadrant would pile up the water into Biscayne Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 This GFS storm is not the area that NHC is watching right now- that system, if it develops, would probably stay down by the Yucatan or Bay of Campeche. The second one originates in the southern Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 GFS-P and operational GFS both now have a significant storm in the 160-240 hour range. Ultimate track and landfall is still in fantasy range, but genesis really isn't at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 2 hours ago, cptcatz said: GFS-Para. A major storm taking this western route into Miami would be catastrophic in terms of storm surge. That right front quadrant would pile up the water into Biscayne Bay. Alrighty then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 Yea, I know, fantasy models. But they keep popping up for a week and half out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 Pretty quick development in the short to medium range. Probably gets mostly swallowed by the Yucatan due to its small size, but hard to say for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Pretty quick development in the short to medium range. Probably gets mostly swallowed by the Yucatan due to its small size, but hard to say for sure GFS Para is the new 3km NAM, it's done this all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 And yet the Euro continues to show zero tropical development... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Pretty quick development in the short to medium range. Probably gets mostly swallowed by the Yucatan due to its small size, but hard to say for sure This is the same system the NHC is watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 3 hours ago, Prospero said: Yea, I know, fantasy models. But they keep popping up for a week and half out. Yeah, no thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 NHC now has the second wave up, first wave is up to 70% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 THe GFS and GEFS shifted closer to Florida with the Track. Most of the FL impact members are 980-1005mb which would be a TS or Cat1 Also, there is some pretty strong cape to the east of this disturbance. Likely there's going to be some impressive convective blobs which will complicate the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 44 minutes ago, Amped said: THe GFS and GEFS shifted closer to Florida with the Track. Most of the FL impact members are 980-1005mb which would be a TS or Cat1 Also, there is some pretty strong cape to the east of this disturbance. Likely there's going to be some impressive convective blobs which will complicate the forecast. What does the HWRF say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 INVEST 91 has been initiated for the Western Caribbean.. http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2020/al912020/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 On 9/28/2020 at 1:11 PM, the ghost of leroy said: Yup. Just total trash. Models are really cool now on anything of interest developing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 9 hours ago, ldub23 said: Models are really cool now on anything of interest developing. Tonight: ............................................ Can anybody find me some model to hug? Ooh, each morning I get up I die a little Can barely stand on my feet (Take a look at yourself) Take a look in the mirror and cry (and cry) Lord, what you're doing to me (yeah yeah) I have spent all my years in believing you But I just can't get no relief, Lord! Somebody (somebody) ooh somebody (somebody) Can anybody find me some model to hug? I work hard (he works hard) every day of my life I work 'til I ache in my bones At the end (at the end of the day) I take home my hard earned pay all on my own I get down (down) on my knees (knees) And I start to pray 'Til the tears run down from my eyes Lord, somebody (somebody), ooh somebody (Please) can anybody find me some model to hug? ................................... OK, yea tomorrow will be another day... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 92L looks mildly interesting in the medium term. Should have a nice anticyclone/outflow pattern... in the W carib in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 92L? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 3, 2020 Author Share Posted October 3, 2020 92L is quite convectively active this morning. Good divergence and CAPE associated with this system. Additionally there is already good inflow and convergence notable on visible. Yet the ECMWF is yet to do jack squat with this system during lead time just like a few days ago when it missed with Gamma. We shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 12Z ECMWF is more aggressive with development now. It does seem like it is missing or at least underestimating initial development this year. 92L may end up developing enough that it tugs on Gamma and pulls that system north eventually as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 What's up with 92L losing all its convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Do I see a new burst? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 Someone probably needs to open a dedicated thread on 92L. It’s got its cherry on the 5 day outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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