the ghost of leroy Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: How many crap storms did we miss in 1933? I know Landsea says something like 1 to 2 per year pre satellite Era but some of those big years back then it must have been even more. That’s what’s cool. Ignorance is bliss. Maybe we should only name hurricanes or do what other agencies do and split tropical storms into two groups starting at 48kts, only naming the more severe ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said: August was either 4/3/1 on formations in August (Isaias formed in July, but wasn't a hurricane until August). No kidding we didn't get a category 2 above hurricane in June and July, that's not the Atlantic works. You’re trying to argue with a bunch of people who know climo but don’t give a shit. We have put in the labor over the years and are entitled to bitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: You’re trying to argue with a bunch of people who know climo but don’t give a shit. We have put in the labor over the years and are entitled to bitch. I'm entitled to tell you your bitching is silly. Pour one out and chill. Based on the models, we're going to be quite busy for a couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 12 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: You’re trying to argue with a bunch of people who know climo but don’t give a shit. We have put in the labor over the years and are entitled to bitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 I'm glad Omar is not heading to Baltimore. (Enjoyed watching "The Wire.") Dropped in here this evening, and surprised the activity in the last couple hours. What fun! We in the Tampa Bay area of Florida experienced what was to become Omar a few days ago, and so far maybe the tropical highlight of the season for wind and rain. That is not a complaint, believe me. But also happy to not totally miss out in 2020... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said: Cedar Rapids is going to be the new Sandy. always has been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 I'm glad Omar is not heading to Baltimore. (Enjoyed watching "The Wire.") totally miss out in 2020...Omar hitting Baltimore would have made my year. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 43 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Central Atlantic wave is now designated as Invest 91L. 8pm TWO mentions 30 percent chance for that to develop 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low pressure about midway between the Windward Islands and west Africa appear to be slowly becoming better organized. Some additional development of this system is possible this week as the system meanders in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 While storm quality has lacked some, we’ve had very few fish storms. Almost everything that’s developed so far has hit land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 7 hours ago, NJwx85 said: While storm quality has lacked some, we’ve had very few fish storms. Almost everything that’s developed so far has hit land. Exactly. In terms of what the general public thinks of this season ACE numbers are meaningless. You need a functioning MDR to bring higher ACE numbers. One Ivan or Irma can inflate numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Models are finally agreeing on a big uptick of MDR activity in about 8-10 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 21 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Models are finally agreeing on a big uptick of MDR activity in about 8-10 days from now. Euro shows a minor low but the 06 GFS does show this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Euro shows two cyclones in the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Insane to think we could be looking at Cape Verde storms with P/R/S names. We usually get to those names after this part of the season subsides. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Im sure they are basing that on the euro and GFS though if they go dead this aft then it wont be so active. What is the real gfs showing at 12Z? not the para. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Im sure they are basing that on the euro and GFS though if they go dead this aft then it wont be so active. What is the real gfs showing at 12Z? not the para. Uh? They aren't basing it off the models 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Uh? They aren't basing it off the models Might be wise to do so. Compared to 06Z the GFS has went dead. I dont think the super favorable conditions have arrived by sept 10. Very dead for peak. Maybe the hurricane showing para is more active. Euro does show 1 actual storm but unless the euro and GFS agree i tend to discount anything and in any case this storm wont get close to the US. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 Might be wise to do so. Compared to 06Z the GFS has went dead. I dont think the super favorable conditions have arrived by sept 10. Very dead for peak. Maybe the hurricane showing para is more active. Euro does show 1 actual storm but unless the euro and GFS agree i tend to discount anything and in any case this storm wont get close to the US.lol... No, that would be unwise since they are legitimate tropical climatologists. Hugging operational model outputs isn't how long-range forecasting works. It isn't particularly great for debating long-range on a tropical message board either. But I digress... 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 28 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Hugging operational model outputs isn't how long-range forecasting works. It isn't particularly great for debating long-range on a tropical message board either. But I digress... My crystal ball is all over the place. October 13th/14th is a doozy in the Gulf, but landfall is vague with Teddy. The stars appear to hint at Texas... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Uh? They aren't basing it off the models is ldub the troll from Virginia "Rainstorm"? I remember them from either WWBB or Eastern...that is pretty funny. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 14 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: is ldub the troll from Virginia "Rainstorm"? I remember them from either WWBB or Eastern...that is pretty funny. How insensitive. Rainstorm died. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 18 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: How insensitive. Rainstorm died. Not really, but okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 There's always hurricane action on Labor Day. I remember my dad grilling burgers in the outer bands of Hurricane Frances on Labor Day. This year doesn't look like anything will hit on Labor Day itself, but models suggesting that Cape Verde wave will be getting threatening around then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 A couple GEFS Para members have something developing near NW Cuba and moving into west FL next week. One has a 957mb low moving into Tampa. There is some pretty low shear in the area if an initial disturbance can get going. That area is the only threat to the US within the next 7-10 days, anything else is further away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Currently 2020 is the 9th most active season through the end of August in the satellite era when using ACE index with the number at about 42 so far. With "peak" still a week away and initial ACE forecasts of 130 to 160 there's still a lot of time for some big things to happen if those forecasts pan out. One thing I'm thinking about is we are just now entering "major hurricane season". The higher percentage of majors occur from now moving forward. Sure it's not been exciting from a "headlines" standpoint so far but as others have said we're just now heading into the active period that statistically has the highest threat of stronger storms. Now if we do get 3 or 4 more majors with an ACE of 150 for the season this year along with weaker storms and the majors all are fish,will folks still be saying this season's a bust? Probably lol...... Cat 3 by month Cat 4 by month Cat 5 by month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 42 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: There's always hurricane action on Labor Day. I remember my dad grilling burgers in the outer bands of Hurricane Frances on Labor Day. Francis, September 5, 2004. Charlie had just passed to the south close enough for me to watch roof tiles and window shutters fly down the street like newspapers in Sun City Center. Francis was huge and blew wind and poured rain, and was impressive to watch and listen to. Francis was affecting the entire Florida peninsula. Jeanne came by soon after in the middle of the night and it was after it moved over the Gulf that trees blew down and power went out for days. It woke me up around 3 AM as it was trying to suck a window A/C unit from my bedroom making a horrible whistling sound. I grabbed a sat pic soon of Francis after as the eye was over us on the 5th (see below). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 55 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Now if we do get 3 or 4 more majors with an ACE of 150 for the season this year along with weaker storms and the majors all are fish,will folks still be saying this season's a bust? I think I'll be saying it was an exciting year and a win (from this point forward). We've had enough landfalls already that people are going to be dealing with a very long time. I love a storm as much or more than anybody, but I'd be tickled pink with nothing but a record fish spinner that we can all talk about for years. (Might be a few ships out there not so thrilled...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On your marks... Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane Nana, approaching the coast of Belize, and on Tropical Depression Omar, located a few hundred miles north of Bermuda. 1. A broad area of low pressure located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a small area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to interact with a tropical wave approaching from the east over the weekend, and it is unclear if the interaction will enhance or inhibit development of this system while it meanders over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. 2. A tropical wave located off the coast of west Africa is merging with another disturbance located a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in an extensive area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is likely to be slow during the next couple of days while it moves west- northwestward at about 15 mph, and a tropical depression is more likely to form early next week over the central tropical Atlantic where environmental conditions are forecast to be more favorable for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 3. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa over the weekend. An area of low pressure is expected to form from the wave, and some development of this low will be possible early next week while it moves generally westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Berg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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