2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Sam Kane]

Laura landfall probably TX/ MX border.

[wizard021]

3 minutes ago, Sam Kane said:

Laura landfall probably TX/ MX border.

No. Ukmet gfs match. 

[cptcatz]

1 hour ago, Superstorm93 said:

Yup. Nothing really imminent either after these two messes either. The Atlantic doesn't appear to be close to as favorable as some were hyping it up to be. 

Euro and CMC have been showing two waves getting across the Atlantic first week of September and staying pretty low in latitude. Definitely something to watch. 

[ldub23]

6 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Euro and CMC have been showing two waves getting across the Atlantic first week of September and staying pretty low in latitude. Definitely something to watch. 

This  is something to watch

[tiger_deF]

18 hours ago, Superstorm93 said:

Yup. Nothing really imminent either after these two messes either. The Atlantic doesn't appear to be close to as favorable as some were hyping it up to be. 

This may age badly

[wizard021]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml. next 2 weeks primed. 

[wizard021]

Phase 8 to 1 then maybe cod which still could fire more storms.  Ecmwf has 2 robust waves after laura and marco.

[Jackstraw]

SAL/dry air has shut down anything currently coming across/off Africa but there's 3 fairly stout waves following this last episode of very dry air.  It's a wait and see if any can make a run into the Atlantic towards the end of the week.  Also, link to a sat view of a pretty strong dust storm over the west central Sahara I thought was cool 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/msg_rgbdust/movies/msg_rgbdust.html

[cptcatz]

Euro showing possible Nana approaching the first week of September. 

[MJO812]

Trouble on the horizon

[vortex95]

I've talked about some of the below before, and others have posted some of the content below, but I'd thought I'd update and add a few items to take a look at things as a whole.  Comments/input welcome!

----------

Macro was never that impressive on satellite.  Only reached minimal hur
strength, and now it's getting torn apart by shear.  LLCC fully exposed
now, and it might not even make landfall.  Either way, overall impact
here should be minimal, so not the doomsday 1-2 punch as hyped for the
Gulf Coast.

Laura has been struggling all along.  Yes, it held together well over
Hispaniola, but that b/c it didn't have much to lose.  A large weak
system encountering an island with tall mountains is not the same
as an intense system with a tight inner core doing the same (Isaias same
situation as Laura).  Also, the upper-level outflow yesterday for Laura was
quite good.  However, today northerly shear has degraded the sat
appearance, and it is a mess.  Yes, it should eventually get it act together
in the GOMEX, but Macro and Laura continue the trend of ATLC systems
that have struggled almost continuously throughout a large part of their
existence, and Macro ends up being another "junk" storm overall, not
getting that intense, struggled with shear and dry air a significant part of
its existence, and doesn't contribute to seasonal ACE much.

Does anyone find this odd?  Where are the long-track classic intense
Cabo Verdes?  No hurricanes in the MDR yet.

Here is a GOES-16 EIR loop on August 18th showing a robust wave
over western Africa.  I realize the parallax makes the cloud tops look
colder than that actually are, but nevertheless, it was a decent wave.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/18gCoMbIRVuiJbOe1kEVfRcLEsof6CYVT/view?usp=sharing
 
And this is what it looked like on August 22nd.  All the convection is
gone.  Seems like the SAL did a number on it.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CInDEDq51Amti0bQh6RbrUvDfSYFRp1C/view?usp=sharing
 
So would you expect such a dramatic suppression of a strong tropical
wave now that the peak season has started for the ATLC?  It just
seems a bit too dramatic when the MDR overall parameters are good.  
Even in the absence of favorable MJO phase, it doesn't necessarily
mean the MDR activity is across the board suppressed, or at least not
*this* suppressed.

Attached is an ATLC GOES-16 split window image 24/12z.  The SAL is
alive and well in much of the subtropics and tropics.  Also attached is an
ATLC WV image from 24/12z.  Very dry air at mid-levels cutting S right
through the western MDR, and the upper low NE of the Lesser Antilles is
forecast to move WSW and be in the central Caribbean in a few days.
That's going to shut down any activity in this area.

Another image attached is the 24/06z GFS 84 hr 250 mb fcst showing
another upper low NE of the Lesser Antilles with its shear axis extending
to Trinidad.  This may limit significant TC development in the MDR this
coming week.  This would bring us to the end of August.

There are ATLC seasons where many TCs significantly develop well E
of the Lesser Antilles, and seasons where you get more "home grown"
TCs in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.  We seem to have an odd hybrid
season thus far,  w/ many short-lived tropical storms and a number not
forming in the tropics or subtropics, TCs in the MDR struggling, and all our
hurricanes either in the GOMEX or off the SEUS coast.  You would think by
now we'd have at least one or two long-tracked strong Cabo Verde
hurricanes.  Many Augusts have had them.

So I ask this question, can there be "too much of a good thing", for the
lack of a better phrase, present?  As I mentioned before, we had early
season indications that were at record or near record levels.  Can this result in
other factors being introduced when we are in record territory?  For instance,
the SAL.  It seems to be sticking around and a factor still, what if it ends
up not waning like it typically does this time of the year and continues into
Sep?  That would continue to have significant impacts on TCs in the MDR,
regardless of the MJO phase.  Or a persistence of TUTTs near and in the MDR,
like we are going to see the next 4-5 days?
 
I realize there may be no real answers to my questions here, but looking at
recent weeks and the here and now, you can't help wonder something might be
awry (i.e. something happening we have yet to observe large-scale in an ATLC TC
season).  The atmosphere is full of surprises!

 

[Floydbuster]

The EURO shows a hurricane barreling towards the Bahamas by Sept 3rd.

[Windspeed]

[Maestrobjwa]

50 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

Translation?

[MJO812]

That  has Florida or Carolinas written all over it

[bigtenfan]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That  has Florida or Carolinas written all over it

Given how far East most of the plots  are I would say Carolinas more so than Florida. Especially South Florida

[cptcatz]

I'd say Florida is well in play

[bigtenfan]

52 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I'd say Florida is well in play

Still a long way off but it looks like the substantial majority  of the ensembls look to be north of Florida 

 

[cptcatz]

1 hour ago, bigtenfan said:

Still a long way off but it looks like the substantial majority  of the ensembls look to be north of Florida 

 

But Florida is obviously still in play. Who would have thought Texas would be in play with Laura based on this run only 6 days ago?

[Rhino16]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

But Florida is obviously still in play. Who would have thought Texas would be in play with Laura based on this run only 6 days ago?

Us being humans, we definitely would automatically assume the closest is the most in danger. It isn’t until you study a bit, and think about it, that you realize that we don’t have the slightest clue where that thing is going until at least 3 days before.

[TradeWinds]

Those 500mb heights first week of September sure look to signal a potential EC threat if something forms. 

[ldub23]

On 8/24/2020 at 7:39 AM, cptcatz said:

Euro showing possible Nana approaching the first week of September. 

Backed way off  of that. Sal isnt backing  off though. 12Z gfs shows basically  nothing thru peak while euro is showing  "vigourous waves". Lets see  if the  afternoon euro actually shows a well developed storm in the MDR.

[Kmlwx]

14 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Backed way off  of that. Sal isnt backing  off though. 12Z gfs shows basically  nothing thru peak while euro is showing  "vigourous waves". Lets see  if the  afternoon euro actually shows a well developed storm in the MDR.

You're entire "persona" on here has gotten about as old as it can possibly get. 

Global models are not going to have a good handle on individual storms until there is some sort of actual center of circulation - and even then they can struggle. Nobody on this forum needs you posting the same crap on an hourly basis. 

It's global models - they might show a storm today and won't tomorrow. In the end - there might be a monster or a piece of crap exposed center. If you're truly a "weather enthusiast" you should really try to absorb some of the excellent posts on here from meteorologists and non-trolls. Posting a little less and taking in some of the knowledge is great advice. 

[Tallis Rockwell]

9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

You're entire "persona" on here has gotten about as old as it can possibly get. 

Global models are not going to have a good handle on individual storms until there is some sort of actual center of circulation - and even then they can struggle. Nobody on this forum needs you posting the same crap on an hourly basis. 

It's global models - they might show a storm today and won't tomorrow. In the end - there might be a monster or a piece of crap exposed center. If you're truly a "weather enthusiast" you should really try to absorb some of the excellent posts on here from meteorologists and non-trolls. Posting a little less and taking in some of the knowledge is great advice. 

Don't feed the troll just ignore him.

[cptcatz]

51 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Backed way off  of that. Sal isnt backing  off though. 12Z gfs shows basically  nothing thru peak while euro is showing  "vigourous waves". Lets see  if the  afternoon euro actually shows a well developed storm in the MDR.

Last night's 00z Euro shows a 1003 mb system in the Caribbean, today's 12z CMC shows a 1006 mb system near the Bahamas, the 12z ICON shows a 999 mb system near the Caribbean, and the 12z GFS shows an open wave.  The global models have been terrible this year with cyclongenesis in the MDR, especially the GFS, so all of these models showing some sort of development of this wave seems like a pretty good indicator that it will develop.  The 12z GFS and the past few Euro runs also show another wave developing behind this next one.  Looks like this one should be pretty hefty coming off Africa.

Don't forget the Euro showed run after run Laura falling apart in the Gulf...

[thunderbolt]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Backed way off  of that. Sal isnt backing  off though. 12Z gfs shows basically  nothing thru peak while euro is showing  "vigourous waves". Lets see  if the  afternoon euro actually shows a well developed storm in the MDR.

He said possible 

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Last night's 00z Euro shows a 1003 mb system in the Caribbean, today's 12z CMC shows a 1006 mb system near the Bahamas, the 12z ICON shows a 999 mb system near the Caribbean, and the 12z GFS shows an open wave.  The global models have been terrible this year with cyclongenesis in the MDR, especially the GFS, so all of these models showing some sort of development of this wave seems like a pretty good indicator that it will develop.  The 12z GFS and the past few Euro runs also show another wave developing behind this next one.  Looks like this one should be pretty hefty coming off Africa.

Don't forget the Euro showed run after run Laura falling apart in the Gulf...

I dont think they have  been terrible. Everything  in the  MDR has  been weak and struggling. 12Z euro shows  no organized storms other than laura. So far  i think the  models  have  done quite well. The GFS and EURO have shown a dead  MDR and thats what  we  have so far.

[madwx]

>trying to forecast 240 hours out

>not using ensembles

 

pick one

[SnoSki14]

21 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

I dont think they have  been terrible. Everything  in the  MDR has  been weak and struggling. 12Z euro shows  no organized storms other than laura. So far  i think the  models  have  done quite well. The GFS and EURO have shown a dead  MDR and thats what  we  have so far.

Storms have had trouble developing until they get closer, very 2005 esque in that regard.

Steering pattern will be very favorable for US impacts going into September. I expect models to show more development soon. 

[ldub23]

9 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Storms have had trouble developing until they get closer, very 2005 esque in that regard.

Steering pattern will be very favorable for US impacts going into September. I expect models to show more development soon. 

Perhaps, but  i dont think pre-season forecasts  of a  hyper active season took this  in consideration. Mdr totally  engulfed  in bone dry air. I read the  gfs  does show a wave  finally  developing  in the Boc but the story  of the season, a  very  hostile  MDR continues.