MUWX Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 12 minutes ago, Calderon said: It's time to cancel your ability to post. Is it possible to block someone on this site? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Its neutral endo. People r drunk today. you’re just as bad. . 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Euro is ugly CMC UKMET NAVGEM ICON all like the idea of a Bahamas/FL storm and a west central gulf storm day 6-7, so I'm not totally buying the Euro. I'd actually be a little surprised if the favorable conditions yielded nothing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 If anything develops I think a lot is going to depend on the evolution of that monster SW conus ridge. GEFS and EPS along with the OP's show it breaking down to varying degrees around day 7 in general. There are trends toward zonal flow across the northern conus after that for a few days farther out into fantasy land across the board. A setup like that, IF it were to happen can sometimes lead to headaches forecasting a track for anything in the SE Bahamas, S GOM or the W Caribbean. Weaker steering and/or something getting trapped under a conus ridge-WAR battle. Stalls, left turns and loops oh my. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 19, 2020 Author Share Posted August 19, 2020 There it is, Chief... Jokes aside, that is the most impressive sub-Saharan MCS I have seen since Irma. This is going to be fun to track regardless of pattern shenanigans. Granted, Florence's was nice too, but not that intense. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 29 minutes ago, yoda said: Serious question: Why do you seem so negative about the chances of 97L and (in particular) 98L? The National Hurricane Center is giving them both almost "certain" development chances, and technically they could both wind up becoming hurricanes. In fact, I think 98L is our most likely contender for the first major hurricane of the year. The wave over Africa is also moving off at just the right time. Last 10 days of August, MJO moving into favorable phase, rapidly decreasing wind shear conditions, increasing upper-level divergence and low level convergence. Significant moisture leaving Africa compared to the dustbowl we saw last month. So why so negative? I could understand if it were July and the SAL was everywhere, but these models are pretty damn tight for 5-7 days out, and that track in late August in a season like this screams major hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 23 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Serious question: Why do you seem so negative about the chances of 97L and (in particular) 98L? The National Hurricane Center is giving them both almost "certain" development chances, and technically they could both wind up becoming hurricanes. In fact, I think 98L is our most likely contender for the first major hurricane of the year. The wave over Africa is also moving off at just the right time. Last 10 days of August, MJO moving into favorable phase, rapidly decreasing wind shear conditions, increasing upper-level divergence and low level convergence. Significant moisture leaving Africa compared to the dustbowl we saw last month. So why so negative? I could understand if it were July and the SAL was everywhere, but these models are pretty damn tight for 5-7 days out, and that track in late August in a season like this screams major hurricane. Kids these days want instant gratification. They are not content to track a mere possibility of a major hurricane. They want it now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 6 hours ago, Windspeed said: There it is, Chief... Jokes aside, that is the most impressive sub-Saharan MCS I have seen since Irma. This is going to be fun to track regardless of pattern shenanigans. Granted, Florence's was nice too, but not that intense. NHC doesn't seem too enthused about it in the 2AM TWO -- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/190524_MIATWOAT.shtml A large area of showers and thunderstorms, located over Guinea, Africa, is associated with a vigorous tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some development of this system while the wave enters the extreme eastern Atlantic on Friday. By early next week, however, conditions are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph toward the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 GFS at 198 Euro at 192 Nothing. The CV season only last so long. When are the favorable conditions coming? To be fair, here is the ICON model at 120 But when the gfs and euro agree i tend to go with that. They dont do anything with the new wave coming off africa either. I think the euro turns into a weak td that falls apart once again over the very warm tropical atlantic. I will be delighted to post maps showing monster canes. Can someone just explain when the favorable conditions are coming? An awful lot of very dry air is suffocating 98L right now. There is an interesting westerly wave moving off NC right now. Probably nothing but looks cool 12Z GFS absolutely nothing from 97 or 98. Some showers. the green stuff off the fla west coast is 98, the green stuff in the nw gom is 97. JB says just wait 10 more days Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 2h Atlantic systems slow to develop as Phase 8/1 MJO are only favorable in close. However We are headed for 2/3. Front 2 still can develop, but have to wait till further west, The MJO goes into 2 in about 10 days and is likely to crawl thru 2/3 for 10-15 day after IMO. 18Z GFS thru aug 28. nothing at all I have never been a big fan of atlantic development when there is a huge low over se canada. High too far south and that is a perfect set up for big SAL outbreaks. At least JB took the time to say when conditions will be favorable. 10 more days. Are those josies remnants off florida? Aug 29 on GFS. Bone dry el nino look. Nothing will cross that intact.I know sst's dont bear it out but atlantic conditions sure are el nino'ish Dont say i never post monster cane pics. Hmon develops 98 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nova737 Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Why do I get the feeling that there is gonna be a Patricia in the atlantic this year, but one that will curve OTS before affecting any land? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, Nova737 said: Why do I get the feeling that there is gonna be a Patricia in the atlantic this year, but one that will curve OTS before affecting any land? If there were to be an Atlantic Patricia (and there will be in the next few years) it’s not going to recurve. A storm sub 890 and 200mph plus would occur in the SW Caribbean somewhere near the Caymans. That’s the the only area with MPI to pull it off. So it’s not escaping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 If there were to be an Atlantic Patricia (and there will be in the next few years) it’s not going to recurve. A storm sub 890 and 200mph plus would occur in the SW Caribbean somewhere near the Caymans. That’s the the only area with MPI to pull it off. So it’s not escaping. Wilma got down to 882 in the SW Caribbean, but Dorian packed unvarified 200mph+ winds on the SWRF dropscondsSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Not sure if this was already posted, but this thread is worth reading: 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Euro showing nothing out thru 192. We are in peak now. Euro continues to show deep low pressure over se canada which forces the high in a position to flood the atlantic with SAL. Euro shows nothing coming of 13 and little from 14. Could be 12/2/0 soon as 13 might not get a name. 18Z gfs just about identical. Deep low over se canada and no doubt some big SAL outbreaks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 4 hours ago, ldub23 said: Euro showing nothing out thru 192. We are in peak now. Euro continues to show deep low pressure over se canada which forces the high in a position to flood the atlantic with SAL. Euro shows nothing coming of 13 and little from 14. Could be 12/2/0 soon as 13 might not get a name. 18Z gfs just about identical. Deep low over se canada and no doubt some big SAL outbreaks. Honestly, I think I speak for everyone when I say I think it's time for you to stop. You were saying the same exact thing earlier this week about the 2 systems that will impact the SE US next week and were wrong. You're clearly giving your best trolling attempt 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 21, 2020 Author Share Posted August 21, 2020 What the hell is going on with the GFS lately? Sheesh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, Windspeed said: What the hell is going on with the GFS lately? Sheesh... It's American thats why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 What the hell is going on with the GFS lately? Sheesh... It's American thats why Damn, the Euro is 2nd worse... Even the v16Para out performed the ECMWF at the end of that chartSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 These models are folding their arms and throwing them up in the air and saying there is no way 2 systems can be in the Gulf at the same time and tries seeing which one becomes the dominant feature. Depression 14 right now is getting awfully close to the northern coast of South America and Depression 13 is being sheared pretty good. I see no agreement on models and think the most likely outcome is rapid development right at landfall which in most cases happens in a moments notice without much warning. I’d be prepared in Florida and entire Gulf Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 35 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: These models are folding their arms and throwing them up in the air and saying there is no way 2 systems can be in the Gulf at the same time and tries seeing which one becomes the dominant feature. Depression 14 right now is getting awfully close to the northern coast of South America and Depression 13 is being sheared pretty good. I see no agreement on models and think the most likely outcome is rapid development right at landfall which in most cases happens in a moments notice without much warning. I’d be prepared in Florida and entire Gulf Coast. Trust me, I'm over 8k miles from home and the modeling here has been s**t recently. The activity last night and today have ZERO support from models we use. It's insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 Still a lot of work to be done in the MDR. We have TUTTS, dry air, shear etc. The globals are fairly quiet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 With all of the focus on Laura and TD 14 are there any early thoughts on the next wave to leave Africa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 21, 2020 Author Share Posted August 21, 2020 With all of the focus on Laura and TD 14 are there any early thoughts on the next wave to leave Africa?Well it is a large wave with a noticeable mid-level circulation. It appears to have exited slightly more north and will pass through the Cabo Verdes. It also has a very nice mid-level moisture envelope around it. Obviously there is very stable dry air, but well NW of the wave itself. SSTs at that latitude are marginal but as it keeps gaining longitude, they do increase to support genesis. We'll just have to keep an eye on it. It is color-coded orange by the NHC with 40% probs in the 5-day outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 NHC noted in the 18z update that conditions in 3-5 day period will not be favorable and have lowered the development chances to 30%. A large part of the tropical Atlantic is devoid of deep convection, as the SAL/dry air dominates. Look at how far S the ITCZ is displaced. As I mentioned in another thread, something does not seem right here. Everything is supposed to favorable for Cabo Verde TCs, but we are still dealing with significant large-scale issues and we are in climo peak period now. Should this be happening in a hyperactive season? Time will tell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 10 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Still a lot of work to be done in the MDR. We have TUTTS, dry air, shear etc. The globals are fairly quiet. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 down to 20 percent in the 8pm TWO Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Laura, located near the northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a broad area of low pressure and tropical wave. This disturbance is expected to move westward across the Cabo Verde Islands on Saturday and it will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall there. Some slow development of this wave is possible during the next couple of days while it moves across the eastern tropical Atlantic before environmental conditions become less favorable for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 If this isn't the year of ugliest tropical systems I can remember. Just crap system after crap system. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 22, 2020 Author Share Posted August 22, 2020 Good lord that AEW went poof! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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