2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Floydbuster]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You are stoked Floydbuster...we will see. 

 

I just hear alot of season cancel talk on other weather sites and I don't see any evidence of that.

[SnowLover22]

16 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

 

I just hear alot of season cancel talk on other weather sites and I don't see any evidence of that.

I would like to know the weather sites you look at lol jk. But for real none that I have seen have said that.

[Floydbuster]

7 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

I would like to know the weather sites you look at lol jk. But for real none that I have seen have said that.

They're talking about the high shear on the long-range GFS. But some of the climate models show an abnormal lowering of wind shear across the entire basin in 14 days. Scary-lowering.

[Floydbuster]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, at 5 pm 

 

Probably gonna get the "J" storm. Ahead of 2005. Incredible. 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, at 5 pm 

Sounds like Josephine is in the way... but I'm guessing it won't last long

[cptcatz]

1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

It's gonna pop. People on different message boards are saying "things look quiet". Trust me, just wait.

This is one of the most favorable patterns of shear, sea surface temperatures, and MJO I've ever seen for late August through September. It's gonna blow.

So are the models just that bad this year?  The GFS now goes out to August 27 and the Euro/CMC go out to August 21, all showing absolutely nothing.  Do you think it blows before those dates or after?

[NorthHillsWx]

16 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

So are the models just that bad this year?  The GFS now goes out to August 27 and the Euro/CMC go out to August 21, all showing absolutely nothing.  Do you think it blows before those dates or after?

They’ve been atrocious with storms this year. But, they do not get into the meat of the favorable period as advertised by the above posts even in their longest range. 

[MJO812]

[Amped]

I'm never impressed with lots of low quality struggling Tropical Storms.   I don't see anything on models in the next 15 days that looks exciting.   

Here are some examples of 60  day stretches in the Atlantic that produced at least 4 major hurricanes. I will consider the upcoming hyped  "Active Period"  in the Atlantic a bust if it can't do it.  7 of the past 25 years have.

AUG-SEPT 1995    4 Major hurricanes

AUG-SEPT 1996    4 Major hurricanes

AUG-SEPT 1999    4 Major Hurricanes

AUG-SEPT 2004    6 Major Hurricanes

SEPT-OCT  2005   4 Major Hurricanes

AUG-SEPT 2010    5 Major Hurricanes

AUG-SEPT 2017   5 Major Hurricanes

 

[WinterWolf]

29 minutes ago, Amped said:

I'm never impressed with lots of low quality struggling Tropical Storms.   I don't see anything on models in the next 15 days that looks exciting.   

Here are some examples of 60  day stretches in the Atlantic that produced at least 4 major hurricanes. I will consider the upcoming hyped  "Active Period"  in the Atlantic a bust if it can't do it.  7 of the past 25 years have.

AUG-SEPT 1995    4 Major hurricanes

AUG-SEPT 1996    4 Major hurricanes

AUG-SEPT 1999    4 Major Hurricanes

AUG-SEPT 2004    6 Major Hurricanes

SEPT-OCT  2005   4 Major Hurricanes

AUG-SEPT 2010    5 Major Hurricanes

AUG-SEPT 2017   5 Major Hurricanes

 

This!

Hyped periods have a knack for not delivering the goods in the world of Meteorology at times. Last winter in SNE is a very recent example of this idea. 
 

Not saying it doesn’t get hyper active, just that if it doesn’t it won’t be a surprise imo at all. 
 

 

[MJO812]

34 minutes ago, Amped said:

I'm never impressed with lots of low quality struggling Tropical Storms.   I don't see anything on models in the next 15 days that looks exciting.   

Here are some examples of 60  day stretches in the Atlantic that produced at least 4 major hurricanes. I will consider the upcoming hyped  "Active Period"  in the Atlantic a bust if it can't do it.  7 of the past 25 years have.

AUG-SEPT 1995    4 Major hurricanes

AUG-SEPT 1996    4 Major hurricanes

AUG-SEPT 1999    4 Major Hurricanes

AUG-SEPT 2004    6 Major Hurricanes

SEPT-OCT  2005   4 Major Hurricanes

AUG-SEPT 2010    5 Major Hurricanes

AUG-SEPT 2017   5 Major Hurricanes

 

We just had Isasis  that caused alot of damage and one in the pipeline. 

[Scorpion]

Reminds me of 2010 and the insane hype. I guess all it takes is one like last year.

[Windspeed]

Reminds me of 2010 and the insane hype. I guess all it takes is one like last year.

You mean the season so far or just the hype? The season so far is not really indicative of the potential that exists in a few weeks. If we're hearing crickets by the second week of September, then I'd start considering a bust. Still, we have had two hurricanes already, albeit not a lot of ACE withstanding. Yet, more than double climatological mean for this date. At any rate, a busy four-to-five week stretch can produce a lot of hurricanes. Too many examples of that to even mention. You can look up most active years and see when they really took off.

 

 

I would also add that as far as seasonal forecasts, a very real bust is certainly possible, though I think it is rather unlikely that we miss out on an active season. A bust for hyperactive forecasts is obviously still very much in play simply due to their rarity. That we had so many forecasts favoring hyperactivity is due to many favorable factors coming into play for the height of the season, which, we are not there yet. We're still waiting for all of those ingredients to produce. Also, bust or no bust, yes, we could have a nightmare hurricane landfall and if we do not reach sufficient ACE and numbers, it would still be a bust. I know most of you, if not all, realize this. But therein lies the rub, even if we do have a bust, those factors likely do produce some majors that track into the Caribbean. We don't have the same setup as 2010 and 2011. We're going to see some strong long-tracking hurricane impacts in 2020.

 

Edit: Err.. 2011, not 2013. lol... That an entirely different scenario. Just, no.

 

Also, I keep adding on and on to this post, sorry, however, I also want to point out that[mention=1541]Scorpion[/mention] never said anything about a bust. They were referring to hyperactive seasons with no major hurricane impacts. I just brought up the bust discussion because it seems to be floating around already in this thread and I was already rambling besides.

[Prospero]

Quote

AUG-SEPT 2004    6 Major Hurricanes

2004 - What a year in Florida on the Gulf Coast!

Charlie, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne that stand out. And if I remember right there were other storms that brought in flooding rain and over-the-top high tides.

We'd get over one, and then prepare for the next. Jeanne was the biggest PIA that year as far as power outages and home damage in the Tampa Bay area, but Charlie and Frances had their impact as well. It became annoying as all get out!

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, Scorpion said:

Reminds me of 2010 and the insane hype. I guess all it takes is one like last year.

Whats hype about this season ? We are already at J.

[yoda]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Whats hype about this season ? We are already at J.

But no major hurricanes and 4 of those storms were crappy TS's that didn't do much at all.  Only 2 hurricanes and both were "hits"... but Isaiah was really the first to do something this season IMO

Josephine won't amount to much either... she will likely be gone in 4-5 days

[PackGrad05]

Just now, yoda said:

But no major hurricanes and 4 of those storms were crappy TS's that didn't do much at all.  Only 2 hurricanes and both were "hits"... but Isaiah was really the first to do something this season IMO

I don't consider a season very active by the number of "major storms" or whether or not they make landfall.   The formation of a large number of storms is enough to make it active.  Their ultimate strength and impact could be the result of poorly timed shear, dry air, or a trough that kicks it out to sea as a result of just bad timing.  

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I don't consider a season very active by the number of "major storms" or whether or not they make landfall.   The formation of a large number of storms is enough to make it active.  Their ultimate strength and impact could be the result of poorly timed shear, dry air, or a trough that kicks it out to sea as a result of just bad timing.  

I concur... I'm just saying so far there really hasn't been anything of major consequence from this hurricane season besides Isaiah.

[Jackstraw]

3 hours ago, Windspeed said:

You mean the season so far or just the hype? The season so far is not really indicative of the potential that exists in a few weeks. If we're hearing crickets by the second week of September, then I'd start considering a bust. Still, we have had two hurricanes already, albeit not a lot of ACE withstanding. Yet, more than double climatological mean for this date. At any rate, a busy four-to-five week stretch can produce a lot of hurricanes. Too many examples of that to even mention. You can look up most active years and see when they really took off.

 

 

I would also add that as far as seasonal forecasts, a very real bust is certainly possible, though I think it is rather unlikely that we miss out on an active season. A bust for hyperactive forecasts is obviously still very much in play simply due to their rarity. That we had so many forecasts favoring hyperactivity is due to many favorable factors coming into play for the height of the season, which, we are not there yet. We're still waiting for all of those ingredients to produce. Also, bust or no bust, yes, we could have a nightmare hurricane landfall and if we do not reach sufficient ACE and numbers, it would still be a bust. I know most of you, if not all, realize this. But therein lies the rub, even if we do have a bust, those factors likely do produce some majors that track into the Caribbean. We don't have the same setup as 2010 and 2011. We're going to see some strong long-tracking hurricane impacts in 2020.

 

Edit: Err.. 2011, not 2013. lol... That an entirely different scenario. Just, no.

 

Also, I keep adding on and on to this post, sorry, however, I also want to point out that[mention=1541]Scorpion[/mention] never said anything about a bust. They were referring to hyperactive seasons with no major hurricane impacts. I just brought up the bust discussion because it seems to be floating around already in this thread and I was already rambling besides.

This.  My biggest concern is exactly that.  There's been consistent modeling of relaxed shear in the Caribbean for some time now, especially the eastern Caribbean.  While normally the eastern Caribbean shear tends to relax during the peak it doesn't usually do it for very long, there always seems to be a retrograding TUTT that throws a fly in the ointment for any long track storm that gets in there and tries to traverse south of Cuba.  Most years that shear tends to keep anything traversing the eastern Caribbean at least in check if not ripping it apart.  Of course some have made it through if the timing's right but the eastern Caribbean is usually a tough place for any storm.  The consistent modeling of a relaxing of that shear for an extended period of time increases the chances for a southern long tracker to sustain intensity right into the GOM.  May not happen at all but I think there's increasing chances of that possibility.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

But no major hurricanes and 4 of those storms were crappy TS's that didn't do much at all.  Only 2 hurricanes and both were "hits"... but Isaiah was really the first to do something this season IMO

Josephine won't amount to much either... she will likely be gone in 4-5 days

Isasis did alot of damge up here 

[MJO812]

fwiw CMC

[TriPol]

What happens if they have to retire the name Alpha? Which alphabet would we go to next?

[LakeEffectKing]

The soon to be named Josephine will become a hurricane in 2 or 3 days, with a chance of RI when the shear is projected to drop to zero.  MH threshold is not out of the question.  Thereafter, I could see a pretty rapid weakening (decoupling) in about 4-6 days, if the shear values that are progged come to fruition.

[Windspeed]

1 hour ago, LakeEffectKing said:

The soon to be named Josephine will become a hurricane in 2 or 3 days, with a chance of RI when the shear is projected to drop to zero.  MH threshold is not out of the question.  Thereafter, I could see a pretty rapid weakening (decoupling) in about 4-6 days, if the shear values that are progged come to fruition.

The would-be Josephine does have a good shot at hurricane intensity and could overperform during a 24 hour window. Easterlies back down and prior to TUTT development, upper divergent flow may create an environment for RI if only for a 12-hr period, but that could be enough. Still don't think I'd be bold enough to call for a Category 3 until we see a well-developed core. Stable 700 hPa Theta-E can break hearts. Regardless of intensity swings, Josephine will have a rough go beyond 72 hours when those westerlies start cranking. Here is Stewart's 5AM:

The aforementioned unfavorable conditions of dry air entrainment 
and southeasterly shear are expected to give way to more conducive 
environmental conditions by 24 h when the cyclone will begin to move 
underneath the center of a synoptic-scale upper-level anticyclone. 
This will result in the shear decreasing to near zero, along with a 
pronounced improvement in the upper-level outflow pattern. The much 
lower shear conditions should also reduce the amount of dry air 
entrainment, while allowing for some moistening of the surrounding 
environment to occur. These more favorable conditions are expected 
to persist through at least the 60-h period, and thus slow but 
steady strengthening is forecast during that time. By 72 h and 
beyond, the global models and regional models show the system 
moving out from underneath the positive influence of the 
upper-level anticyclone, encountering moderate southerly to 
southwesterly vertical wind shear, which is expected to induce 
gradual weakening. It should be noted that during the 48-60 h 
period when the shear will be the lowest and sea-surface 
temperatures will be near 28.5C, there is a narrow window of 
opportunity where the intensity could peak higher than what is 
currently indicated. The new NHC intensity forecast is very similar 
to the previous advisory, and is slightly higher than the 
consensus intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA due to 
anticipation of the very favorable low-shear conditions.

I do think Josephine becomes a hurricane for a day, but it won't last long with that 30+ kts of shear blocking its path:

[dan11295]

Obviously if Josephine forms now still we will still be ahead of 2005 pace wise. Next storm in 2005 was named on Aug. 24 (We know what storm that was). I agree we did have many short lived weak TS's so far. 2005 already had a Cat 5 (Emily) at this point. So ACE wide 2020 is behind 2005.

[TheDreamTraveler]

9 hours ago, yoda said:

But no major hurricanes and 4 of those storms were crappy TS's that didn't do much at all.  Only 2 hurricanes and both were "hits"... but Isaiah was really the first to do something this season IMO

Josephine won't amount to much either... she will likely be gone in 4-5 days

It's august 12th and on average we only have 1-2 named storms by now. And not only that both the gfs and ecmwf have been horrible this year...how can you be annoyed we haven't had a major when we barely even have named storms at this time lmao obviously we've had a ton of named storms compared to average but there's a reason why many of them haven't taken off...because the environment is usually unfavorable hence the 1-2 average

[Windspeed]

Obviously if Josephine forms now still we will still be ahead of 2005 pace wise. Next storm in 2005 was named on Aug. 24 (We know what storm that was). I agree we did have many short lived weak TS's so far. 2005 already had a Cat 5 (Emily) at this point. So ACE wide 2020 is behind 2005.

July of 2005 was so anomalous, I'm not sure it's even reasonable to compare ACE numbers to it. When you have two long-tracking major hurricanes that reached Category 4 and 5 prior to peak weeks, it remains a freak outlier in terms of ACE compared to even other hyperactive years. 2017, 2010, 2008, 2004, 2003, 1999, 1998, 1995 and so forth are much more in line climatologically speaking. This year so far has been more about numbers of named storms, though I do expect ACE to be skyrocketing in September this year regardless of hyperactive or just normally active.

[Windspeed]

46 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I guess we’re just discussing for discussion’s sake, but don’t overthink it. Well above average doesn’t mean every other wave becomes a monster. The basin is primed despite SAL, and climo will begin to become more favorable in just the next week or two.

I feel good about my overall forecast of 21/11/5. 

Hopefully I can do my annual peak overview late this week or early next week.

I am not making any adjustments. Signals still scream a crazy active peak that is prolonged through October with -ENSO and +AMO signals. Now how NAO evolves could influence deep Caribbean tracks versus more interaction with the Eastern Seaboard. WAR/SER should be in place through October though. There will still be westerly shortwaves and intermittent weaknesses for recurves. But several TCs will time under waxing extensional Azores-Bermuda ridging versus waning as troughs lift over New Foundland and Greenland maritimes with robust SERs rebuilding in place; therefore, I do not think we're staring down another 2010/2011 type active season where everything is central Atlantic based. I should specify peak MDR/CV stretch of season, as this season up to this point is entirely dissimilar. Perhaps something akin to 2004 and 2008 with enough blocking in place to drive some W. Caribbean and GOM systems like Ike, Gustav, Ivan, Felix, Frances, etc. Again, I want to avoid 2005 in comparison because, if you recall, after July we really did not have many MDR/CV long-tracking hurricanes that reached the far WATL. Katrina developed out of TD10 remnants in the Bahamas. Rita was home grown as well. Wilma was pure WCARIB post frontal and tropical wave interaction. All those other numbers were among a swarm of TCs that developed out in the middle of the central Atlantic. Again, with the pattern evolving, I will be surprised if we don't have at least a few hurricanes that eat up some longitude and become Antilles, Central America or SE Conus threats. Not saying it will be 2017 again, but can you imagine a 2017-like year in the MDR but with significantly greater longitudinal tracks?

[Amped]

There some opportunity for a storm in the SE Caribbean  next week if something can get going south of the shear and north of the south american coast.  Felix was able to do this in a similar pattern but there isn't much room.

[ldub23]

Lots  of dry air  and  shear. TD11 is another struggler. Everything shouldnt  be struggling  if preseason forecasts  of favorable  conditions were right. 5/2/1 rest  of the season though the way they name things these days  11/2/1 is  possible. 20/4/1 for the season?