Windspeed Posted July 4, 2020 Author Share Posted July 4, 2020 The MCV accociated with the old boundary draped off the ECONUS might be forming an LLC under the current MCS complex that went up this evening. Note the circular pattern of the lightning near the highest cloud tops. Possible curved banding forming might be the beginnings of an LLC and we may get a named system out of this sooner than later if it holds together. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 4, 2020 Share Posted July 4, 2020 8pm TWO says 10% chance... and basically has 24-36 hours Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms have persisted during the past several hours in association with a small low pressure system located about midway between Florida and Bermuda. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next day or two while the low moves generally east-northeastward. By Sunday night, however, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for significant development to occur. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted July 4, 2020 Share Posted July 4, 2020 Will the saharan dust end earlier than normal this year with how wet it has been in Africa? I have been watching GOES of the eastern atlantic and some of the thunderstorm clusters are well north into the actual sarahan desert area as opposed to the sahel. I watched some cold cloud tops at around -75*C move right over the Timbuktu area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 4, 2020 Share Posted July 4, 2020 Blake likes Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A small area of low pressure located about 400 miles west-southwest of Bermuda is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity. This system's low-level circulation has become better defined during the past several hours, and a tropical depression could form later today or Saturday evening while the system moves east-northeastward at about 15 mph. By Sunday night, however, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for significant development to occur. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 6, 2020 Author Share Posted July 6, 2020 The wave I posted above when it rolled off Africa is still making its way across the western MDR at a low latitude. It's nothing special, there may be some weak mid-level vorticity. It also isn't the sharpest of wave axii. But it has a favorable upper environment and if convection can coalesce to tighten vorticity or close off a surface low, could be interesting in the southern Antilles and deep Caribbean later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Five, located a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda. 1. A small low pressure system is located over the northern Gulf of Mexico about 100 miles south-southwest of Panama City, Florida.While the low currently has limited thunderstorm activity, some development is still possible before it moves inland early Monday. This system is expected to evolve into a larger low pressure system and move northeastward, possibly emerging offshore of the Carolinas later this week where environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for development.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. 2. A strong tropical wave, centered about 700 miles east of the Windward Islands, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slight development of this system is possible on Monday before environmental conditions become hostile for development on Tuesday. The wave is forecast to move through the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday and could produce locally heavy rainfall as well as gusty winds on some of those islands.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Forecaster Blake The N Gulf low is really distinctive on EVX! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Wow just took a look. Really nice little feature. Is that from the original mid level circulation? Looks like it got decoupled late in the day.Didn’t follow it all day but I’m thinking that’s likely what happened.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure located inland over central Georgia continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms over portions of the southeastern U.S. This system is expected to move generally northeastward toward the coast of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states later this week. Some development of this system is possible late this week if it moves over water. Regardless of development, the low is forecast to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause flash flooding across portions of the southeastern U.S. during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 7, 2020 Author Share Posted July 7, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Holy crap. That moisture prediction is basically Hurricane Ivan's track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 8, 2020 Author Share Posted July 8, 2020 Good thread on current anomalous upper tropospheric temperature profiles that may persist into the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season. Generally, cooler upper profiles aid in colder cloudtops and more intense convection. May also aid in upper divergence for 400-200 hPa anti-cyclones. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 I have a bone to pick with the Atlantic hurricane season and I am going to post it here 1. Tropical Storm Arthur: it existed as a 35 kt tropical storm from 11:00 PM EDT May 16th, until May 19th. Its maximum wind of 45 knots. It tracked northeastward. C'mon Man! 2. Tropical Storm Bertha: it existed from 8:30AM EDT until mid-afternoon on May 27th, as a low intensity tropical storm over water. I then made landfall in South Carolina. C'mon Man! 3. Tropical Storm Cristobal. Had an initial intensity of 35 knots at 4:00 PM CDT June 2nd. It made landfall on Mexico and weakened, It spent June 6th - 7th over the Gulf of Mexico as a 45 knot slopstorm. It made landfall on southeastern Louisiana. The radar images and the wind gusts were barely interesting, yet it caused a "disaster" near the Gulf Coast. 35 mph wind getting you down? I can sneeze faster than 35 mph. Can't deal with rain? The Gulf Coast gets over 60" of rain per year. Then it tracked toward Wisconsin as a tropical mess, with 20mph wind. Come On Man! 4. Tropical Storm Dolly. it had an intensity of 35-40 knots from 1:00 PM AST June 23 to 11:00 PM AST the same day. C'mon Man! 5. Tropical Storm Eduoard. The intensity of this cyclone was just 35-40 knots from 11:00AM AST July 5, until 24 hours later. It tracked eastward. C'mon Man! 6. Tropical Storm Fay: So far, Tropical Storm Fay has had 3 hours at 40 knots, super close to the coast. I don't even know if anybody has measured a 46 mph wind, seriously. C'mon Man! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 11 hours ago, Chinook said: I have a bone to pick with the Atlantic hurricane season and I am going to post it here 1. Tropical Storm Arthur: it existed as a 35 kt tropical storm from 11:00 PM EDT May 16th, until May 19th. Its maximum wind of 45 knots. It tracked northeastward. C'mon Man! 2. Tropical Storm Bertha: it existed from 8:30AM EDT until mid-afternoon on May 27th, as a low intensity tropical storm over water. I then made landfall in South Carolina. C'mon Man! 3. Tropical Storm Cristobal. Had an initial intensity of 35 knots at 4:00 PM CDT June 2nd. It made landfall on Mexico and weakened, It spent June 6th - 7th over the Gulf of Mexico as a 45 knot slopstorm. It made landfall on southeastern Louisiana. The radar images and the wind gusts were barely interesting, yet it caused a "disaster" near the Gulf Coast. 35 mph wind getting you down? I can sneeze faster than 35 mph. Can't deal with rain? The Gulf Coast gets over 60" of rain per year. Then it tracked toward Wisconsin as a tropical mess, with 20mph wind. Come On Man! 4. Tropical Storm Dolly. it had an intensity of 35-40 knots from 1:00 PM AST June 23 to 11:00 PM AST the same day. C'mon Man! 5. Tropical Storm Eduoard. The intensity of this cyclone was just 35-40 knots from 11:00AM AST July 5, until 24 hours later. It tracked eastward. C'mon Man! 6. Tropical Storm Fay: So far, Tropical Storm Fay has had 3 hours at 40 knots, super close to the coast. I don't even know if anybody has measured a 46 mph wind, seriously. C'mon Man! You're looking for the "Why does every convective swirl get a name?" support group. We meet every other Thursday at 730 pm. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 13 hours ago, Chinook said: I have a bone to pick with the Atlantic hurricane season and I am going to post it here 1. Tropical Storm Arthur: it existed as a 35 kt tropical storm from 11:00 PM EDT May 16th, until May 19th. Its maximum wind of 45 knots. It tracked northeastward. C'mon Man! 2. Tropical Storm Bertha: it existed from 8:30AM EDT until mid-afternoon on May 27th, as a low intensity tropical storm over water. I then made landfall in South Carolina. C'mon Man! 3. Tropical Storm Cristobal. Had an initial intensity of 35 knots at 4:00 PM CDT June 2nd. It made landfall on Mexico and weakened, It spent June 6th - 7th over the Gulf of Mexico as a 45 knot slopstorm. It made landfall on southeastern Louisiana. The radar images and the wind gusts were barely interesting, yet it caused a "disaster" near the Gulf Coast. 35 mph wind getting you down? I can sneeze faster than 35 mph. Can't deal with rain? The Gulf Coast gets over 60" of rain per year. Then it tracked toward Wisconsin as a tropical mess, with 20mph wind. Come On Man! 4. Tropical Storm Dolly. it had an intensity of 35-40 knots from 1:00 PM AST June 23 to 11:00 PM AST the same day. C'mon Man! 5. Tropical Storm Eduoard. The intensity of this cyclone was just 35-40 knots from 11:00AM AST July 5, until 24 hours later. It tracked eastward. C'mon Man! 6. Tropical Storm Fay: So far, Tropical Storm Fay has had 3 hours at 40 knots, super close to the coast. I don't even know if anybody has measured a 46 mph wind, seriously. C'mon Man! Well stated. Everything gets a name including winter storms. Pretty soon T storms of varying intensity will be named. Just think of a weather alert announcing “take cover, Chip and Dale” approaching NYC Metro, As always ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 22 minutes ago, rclab said: Well stated. Everything gets a name including winter storms. Pretty soon T storms of varying intensity will be named. Just think of a weather alert announcing “take cover, Chip and Dale” approaching NYC Metro, As always ..... If it meets the definition of a storm then it gets a name it's that simple. Agree about the winter storm naming nonsense though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 I'm not really questioning NHC methods on any of this, really. Named storms outside of the Main Development Region can be weak, and I'm just having some fun with it. You must admit that T.S. Fay, yesterday and today, developed close to the coast. It developed at or near Cape Hatteras, at 35 degrees north, and headed to the more marginal sea temperatures of New Jersey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 11, 2020 Author Share Posted July 11, 2020 Another healthy wave south of the Verdes. Easterlies are still a bit lopsided towards the 700 hPa level. But the wave train continues. Eventually easterly trades are going to better align as Azores ridging takes its seasonal build/shift westward into an ECONUS WAR/SER; we already have ENS support for strong interior CONUS 600 dm heights incoming; and if these waves continue training, ITCZ wave breaking and an axii is inevitably going to close off at the surface and stack. The vigor in the WAM and ITCZ needs to be paid attention. We are mere weeks away from modeled increasing MDR favoribility. If that happens sooner, expect one of these waves to develop into our first MDR TC before August. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 On 7/10/2020 at 10:46 AM, SnoSki14 said: If it meets the definition of a storm then it gets a name it's that simple. Agree about the winter storm naming nonsense though. Aren’t the winter storms named by one of the point and click weather apps so they get website traffic to their website? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 11, 2020 Author Share Posted July 11, 2020 Aren’t the winter storms named by one of the point and click weather apps so they get website traffic to their website? The naming of Winter storms has always been controversial due to unwarranted exemplification of ETs/mid-latitudinal storms, their frequency of occurrence, and hype that overwhelmingly isn't required from a human impact and safety standpoint. The naming of Tropical Cyclones, on the other hand, is entirely warranted due to those same phenomenon. We name them because they can be inherently dangerous. Sure, some are just a maritime nuisance. Also, sure, with better RS technology, better satellite resolutions and data gathering, we classify TCs that likely wouldn't even get noticed several decades ago. But sticking to the rules of what gets classified, it would be silly to keep them unclassified merely because they are weak, less substantial/impactful events, or even subtropical. We name TCs for important reasons, hard to argue against that. But we also need to stick to the rules. If a system meets the criteria, it gets classified, period. I realize the tongue-in-cheek on the off-topic here. But it's worth reminding and pointing out why NOAA/NHC handles TC classifications the way they do, and also why private companies naming mid-latitudal ETs is ridiculous and of little credence beyond attention generation and money for their service platforms. It's hardly a matter of public safety and science. Major differences in mission strategy and purpose here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 11, 2020 Author Share Posted July 11, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 13, 2020 Author Share Posted July 13, 2020 The proverbial calm before the storm?... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 Maue says that the GFS shows no tropical activity for rest of month of July https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1282687140409868294 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1282664827299610627 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 14, 2020 Author Share Posted July 14, 2020 JMA on board for an active Aug-Oct throughout the Atlantic Basin and MDR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: The steering pattern has my attention. It’s 2020 and Murphy’s law is kicking in hard. We’ll probably see a 2004-2005 like barrage of hurricanes into the US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 14, 2020 Author Share Posted July 14, 2020 Late July into the first week of August just might be the kickoff. Signs of a favorable MJO coming into play. Easterly winds will dominate the tropical Pacific region, reinforcing La Niña; at the same time, due to a robust standing wave over the Western Indian Ocean and East African highlands, convection should continue to propagate westward with persistent wave breaking, which will feed tropical waves into Eastern Atlantic and MDR: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Don't be surprised if we get a Charley-type major August 10-20th based on pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Today's 12z GFS finally shows some development at the latest hour near Florida. It's obviously a long way away but it looks like the same wave that the Euro hints at developing in MDR less than 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Is it just me, or is there a tremendous lack of upper level wind shear for July 15th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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