ErinInTheSky Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 25 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Do we even wanna ask?... Just... google. I can’t even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 IHME model got an upward adjustment to 67k. Even that seems low with reopenings coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 This was so sad to read 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 28 minutes ago, supernovasky said: This was so sad to read Something that irks me...after every story like that there is a comment like “they had a pre-existing condition”. What is their point? Did his death matter less because he had cancer as a child? Would me and my wife’s death matter less because we have asthma? Would my fathers because he has diabetes? Or my uncle and father in law because they have heart problems? How many people don’t have something? And something about “this isn’t killing young healthy people” irks me everytime. Yes so? What’s their point? Only slightly less annoying are the “omg were all gonna die from this” posts. Umm no but this is bad enough, you don’t have to exaggerate just because it’s not the apocalypse. You would think this would be that rare subject where people would put their dumb ass nonsense away just for a little while. Obviously that was too much to ask. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 Live and die by model predictions...I learned a long time ago that you talk about the final results when all is said and done. Certain groups on TV picking the high or low number and focusing on them will now have to continually change and all that does is lead to mistrust and people bitching about them being wrong. I call it Covid-Ji syndrome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 Welp.. the numbers are in people and it looks like several million people have or have had the Corona Virus in the greater New York metro region. This brings the total infection mortality rate to well under 1%. I know the flu numbers and also well under 1%.. like maybe 0.1% or something.. but at this point it is really just statistical semantics. By prolonging this we are simply increasing the probability that more elderly people will contract the virus. I see no reason why we should be letting this thing stick around any longer than it needs to. The fact that we are not allowing our Children and Healthy people eradicate this disease puts my parent's lives in danger. How much more data do these people need to realize that this is just another bad bug.. #StopPlayingGod 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Live and die by model predictions...I learned a long time ago that you talk about the final results when all is said and done. Certain groups on TV picking the high or low number and focusing on them will now have to continually change and all that does is lead to mistrust and people bitching about them being wrong. I call it Covid-Ji syndrome Where is Ji's twitter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 BTW.. I actually got a really bad cold this week and now I can't smell the kitty litter and other crap in my house.. I am thinking.. maybe.. just maybe I did my part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, 40westwx said: Welp.. the numbers are in people and it looks like several million people have or have had the Corona Virus in the greater New York metro region. This brings the total infection mortality rate to well under 1%. I know the flu numbers and also well under 1%.. like maybe 0.1% or something.. but at this point it is really just statistical semantics. By prolonging this we are simply increasing the probability that more elderly people will contract the virus. I see no reason why we should be letting this thing stick around any longer than it needs to. The fact that we are not allowing our Children and Healthy people eradicate this disease puts my parent's lives in danger. How much more data do these people need to realize that this is just another bad bug.. #StopPlayingGod Ok just stop. You are advocating millions get it and totally overwhelm our medical infrastructure. This will cause more deaths than sitting at home for a bit. It has been said time and time again that this would be the result of your scenario. Calling it the same as the flu is stupid and pointless. Its not. If you can't control your emotions when you post then I suggest taking a break. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, H2O said: Ok just stop. You are advocating millions get it and totally overwhelm our medical infrastructure. This will cause more deaths than sitting at home for a bit. It has been said time and time again that this would be the result of your scenario. Calling it the same as the flu is stupid and pointless. Its not. If you can't control your emotions when you post then I suggest taking a break. I am under complete control over my emotions. If you look at my posts, the vast majority of them are numbers and facts. I think the rest of the world needs to get control over their emotions. This would not overwhelm our medical infrastructure.. what we are seeing is statistically comparable to what we saw in California and Florida in 2018 where their overall death rates flew through the roof. There was an increase of 20% in the overall mortality rate... not flu... but overall deaths for the months where the flu peeked. The difference this year is that we are looking for it. Plain and simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 It is NOT the flu. Won't be like the flu, won't act like the flu. Period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, 40westwx said: I am under complete control over my emotions. If you look at my posts, the vast majority of them are numbers and facts. I think the rest of the world needs to get control over their emotions. This would not overwhelm our medical infrastructure.. what we are seeing is statistically comparable to what we saw in California and Florida in 2018 where their overall death rates flew through the roof. There was an increase of 20% in the overall mortality rate... not flu... but overall deaths for the months where the flu peeked. The difference this year is that we are looking for it. Plain and simple. A little early Friday morning trolling i see. It’s getting old though, you’re going to have to change it up a bit, keep it fresh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 24, 2020 Author Share Posted April 24, 2020 49 minutes ago, 40westwx said: I am under complete control over my emotions. If you look at my posts, the vast majority of them are numbers and facts. I think the rest of the world needs to get control over their emotions. This would not overwhelm our medical infrastructure.. what we are seeing is statistically comparable to what we saw in California and Florida in 2018 where their overall death rates flew through the roof. There was an increase of 20% in the overall mortality rate... not flu... but overall deaths for the months where the flu peeked. The difference this year is that we are looking for it. Plain and simple. sigh. i brought you back on conditions. follow them please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 Just now, mappy said: sigh. i brought you back on conditions. follow them please. Okay.. I will stop .. I just think the board would be boring without an opposing voice... Phin was alright but he was wildly inconsistent. He basically disagreed with everything. My posts have been consistent and backed by numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 24, 2020 Author Share Posted April 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, 40westwx said: Okay.. I will stop .. I just think the board would be boring without an opposing voice... Phin was alright but he was wildly inconsistent. He basically disagreed with everything. My posts have been consistent and backed by numbers. I'm not against an opposing voice in this thread, wish people would stop suggesting as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 27 minutes ago, 40westwx said: Okay.. I will stop .. I just think the board would be boring without an opposing voice... Phin was alright but he was wildly inconsistent. He basically disagreed with everything. My posts have been consistent and backed by numbers. Yeah, backed by the numbers you made up. Here are some numbers from an actual scientist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 21 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Yeah, backed by the numbers you made up. Here are some numbers from an actual scientist. The IFR between 0.5-1% with 13.9% penetrance in NY, the worst hit area, is one of the worst pieces of news all around. It came out at the same time as the Geneva study and a study from late last month showing the same range for the IFR. This means it's 5-10x deadlier on a per-person basis than the flu, and will affect 8-10x more people. Literally using these numbers, you can expect that going the "herd immunity" route would result in 2,000,000+ deaths (and that's without taking into account hospital surging that would occur if you did such). It also shows that stay-at-home has been working, we have NOT reached these worst case scenarios because we have flattened the curve and prevented ourselves from being overwhelmed. If you want to do the math yourself, just take 0.007 and multiply it by whatever area's population you are looking at, then multiply that by 0.85 (herd immunity for a disease that spreads this easily is about 85% of people) and you've got the likely number of minimum deaths from pursuing such a strategy, not counting hospital overwhelming effects of doing such. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 24, 2020 Author Share Posted April 24, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 Are the models still forcasting a total of 60k deaths on,June 1st.? WOM site has over 50k deaths now. Going to have to slow down alot to stay around 60k on June 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 52 minutes ago, supernovasky said: The IFR between 0.5-1% with 13.9% penetrance in NY, the worst hit area, is one of the worst pieces of news all around. It came out at the same time as the Geneva study and a study from late last month showing the same range for the IFR. This means it's 5-10x deadlier on a per-person basis than the flu, and will affect 8-10x more people. Literally using these numbers, you can expect that going the "herd immunity" route would result in 2,000,000+ deaths (and that's without taking into account hospital surging that would occur if you did such). It also shows that stay-at-home has been working, we have NOT reached these worst case scenarios because we have flattened the curve and prevented ourselves from being overwhelmed. If you want to do the math yourself, just take 0.007 and multiply it by whatever area's population you are looking at, then multiply that by 0.85 (herd immunity for a disease that spreads this easily is about 85% of people) and you've got the likely number of minimum deaths from pursuing such a strategy, not counting hospital overwhelming effects of doing such. I think it is safe to assume that New York city is the worse case scenario. here are the numbers: ~15000 deaths ~2700000 cases (and growing at really fast clip) Thats 0.5% Infection Mortality Rate .1% vs .5% is statistically insignificant when you are evaluating infection mortality rates in large population centers. For the CDC, we are talking about the population of the united states. In other words if you were to take in to account statistical variance, .1% and .5% really mean the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 Just now, 40westwx said: I think it is safe to assume that New York city is the worse case scenario. here are the numbers: ~15000 deaths ~2700000 cases Thats 0.5% Infection Mortality Rate .1% vs .5% is statistically insignificant when you are evaluating infection mortality rates in large population centers. For the CDC, we are talking about the population of the united states. In other words if you were to take in to account statistical variance, .1% and .5% really mean the same thing New York has 20,861 deaths. ".1% and .5%" do not mean the same thing. And the true IFR range is 0.5% - 1.1%. Multiple studies have now confirmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Are the models still forcasting a total of 60k deaths on,June 1st.? WOM site has over 50k deaths now. Going to have to slow down alot to stay around 60k on June 1st. Nope they upped it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 Just now, supernovasky said: New York has 20,861 deaths. ".1% and .5%" do not mean the same thing. And the true IFR range is 0.5% - 1.1%. Multiple studies have now confirmed. and 2700000 cases is last weeks number.. I am sure they have many many many more cases now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 24, 2020 Author Share Posted April 24, 2020 Just now, 40westwx said: and 2700000 cases is last weeks number.. I am sure they have many many many more cases now. 2,700,000 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 Just now, 40westwx said: and 2700000 cases is last weeks number.. I am sure they have many many many more cases now. And the deaths are from infections 3-5 weeks ago, Cuomo said that the true IFR is likely higher as deaths lag. Continue please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 16 minutes ago, mappy said: 2,700,000 ? Check out 1st NY antibody test results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 24, 2020 Author Share Posted April 24, 2020 Just now, Wonderdog said: Check out 1st NY antibody test results. 2.7 million? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 23 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Nope they upped it. Updated IHME is over 67k through early August. Still flattens to under 20 a day by early June, and just a few a day beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, mappy said: 2.7 million? Cuomo mentioned it yesterday according to the article I read. Results were of course extrapolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Updated IHME is over 67k through early August. Still flattens to under 20 a day by early June, and just a few a day beyond that. I would take the over on that even if we were maintaining lockdowns everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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