Hoosier Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 28 minutes ago, 40westwx said: Again.. during 2017-2018 there were approximately 80,000 people that died in the US from the flu.. but this is confirmed laboratory tests. During those years at the height of the outbreak, there were on average 12,000 more deaths PER WEEK than the same weeks in previous years. Thats huge number.. a crazy anomaly... and the only difference that year was the flu outbreak. So you can safely assume that over at least 80,000 more peopled died from flu that year. i have tables graphs and sources to back this up. And most of those deaths were in Florida or California. They were this year's New York.. But we will never know the true severity of COVID-19 because Social Distancing is interrupting the natural process by lengthening the time in which the virus sticks around in a given population. This is not true. The number of lab confirmed flu deaths is much less than the estimated death toll each year. There weren't 80,000 lab confirmed flu deaths in the 2017-18 flu season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wait...you think the national death toll for the entire country will decline to 100 much by then? But how...unless we see the new infections go down quite a bit between now and the end of the month, I don't know how we get there that fast. I suppose the NYC metro area may be the exception, but i do think 100 deaths or less a day for the rest of the country is a real possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 History Professor: And tragically class, over 58,000 Americans died in the Vietnam war. Student: *raises hand* History Professor: Yes, you in the back, go ahead... Student: That’s no big deal because 60,000 people died of flu last year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Holy crap 2500 deaths. Several states haven't reported either yet. Imagine unrestrained for significant amounts of time. "just the flu" I think at PEAK in 2018 flu killed 500/day, and that only lasted a few days. And that was the worst flu season in 40 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: History Professor: And tragically class, over 58,000 Americans died in the Vietnam war. Student: *raises hand* History Professor: Yes, you in the back, go ahead... Student: That’s no big deal because 60,000 people died of flu last year. No one is saying that 60,000 people dying is “not a big deal”. But some of us are saying that we have to have some perspective. People die from things all the time. And it’s always sad in my opinion. After predictions of over 2 million American deaths. We are now debating if it will reach 60,000 in the next few weeks. That is a tragedy and we can mourn the lives that have been and will be lost. But i would argue that if we had 100,000s of deaths at this point, the cries to return to normal would be far weaker and far fewer. But people were told something that didn’t pan out. We can argue whether it was social distancing, lock downs, warm weather, end of cold and flu season as to why we did so much better than predicted. But the bottom line is people are starting react to real numbers and hard data vs predictions and models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: No one is saying that 60,000 people dying is “not a big deal”. But some of us are saying that we have to have some perspective. People die from things all the time. And it’s always sad in my opinion. After predictions of over 2 million American deaths. We are now debating if it will reach 60,000 in the next few weeks. That is a tragedy and we can mourn the lives that have been and will be lost. But i would argue that if we had 100,000s of deaths at this point, the cries to return to normal would be far weaker and far fewer. But people were told something that didn’t pan out. We can argue whether it was social distancing, lock downs, warm weather, end of cold and flu season as to why we did so much better than predicted. But the bottom line is people are starting react to real numbers and hard data vs predictions and models. It didn't pan out because we isolated. This thing is still killing 2,500 a day. Think of how long we've been like this for and consider that. It's still resulting in 30k new infections a day minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, supernovasky said: It didn't pan out because we isolated. This thing is still killing 2,500 a day. Think of how long we've been like this for and consider that. It's still resulting in 30k new infections a day minimum. Keep telling yourself that ... we are getting super close to losing support for lock-downs worldwide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: No one is saying that 60,000 people dying is “not a big deal”. But some of us are saying that we have to have some perspective. People die from things all the time. And it’s always sad in my opinion. After predictions of over 2 million American deaths. We are now debating if it will reach 60,000 in the next few weeks. That is a tragedy and we can mourn the lives that have been and will be lost. But i would argue that if we had 100,000s of deaths at this point, the cries to return to normal would be far weaker and far fewer. But people were told something that didn’t pan out. We can argue whether it was social distancing, lock downs, warm weather, end of cold and flu season as to why we did so much better than predicted. But the bottom line is people are starting react to real numbers and hard data vs predictions and models. The models continually adjust to real time data, and factored into the projections are continuation of the measures that are in place for specific time periods, including stay at home orders and general social distancing. I am sure you know this, but there are "suggestions" in this post to the contrary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Keep telling yourself that ... we are getting super close to losing support for lock-downs worldwide. I do believe the collective will is breaking. I don't think that the results will be good. I hope and pray they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: I do believe the collective will is breaking. I don't think that the results will be good. I hope and pray they are. They will rush out to restart the industrial machine at huge costs in terms of human lives and suffering. I am familiar with this theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Holy crap 2500 deaths. Several states haven't reported either yet. Imagine unrestrained for significant amounts of time. "just the flu" I think at PEAK in 2018 flu killed 500/day, and that only lasted a few days. And that was the worst flu season in 40 years. So probably another case where low weekend fatality rates were a bit of a mirage. Or backlogs and probable deaths are getting added today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: So probably another case where low weekend fatality rates were a bit of a mirage. Or backlogs and probable deaths are getting added today? I've looked at the data. I do think backlogs have to do with it for sure (Sunday deaths end up pushed to Monday and Tuesday), probable is contributing some, but I think the biggest driver is that other places are experiencing peaks right now. Ohio is seeing a pretty strong uptick in hospitalizations and deaths. Pennsylvnaia, Michigan, Illinois, New Jersey, Connecticut are all getting slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: I do believe the collective will is breaking. I don't think that the results will be good. I hope and pray they are. Most states have a criteria for when to begin the stepwise process for "reopening". In MD and probably VA as well, it will likely begin around June 1, IMO. That is based on the current data and modeled projections, and hopefully adequate testing resources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Just now, supernovasky said: I've looked at the data. I do think backlogs have to do with it for sure (Sunday deaths end up pushed to Monday and Tuesday), probable is contributing some, but I think the biggest driver is that other places are experiencing peaks right now. Ohio is seeing a pretty strong uptick in hospitalizations and deaths. Pennsylvnaia, Michigan, Illinois, New Jersey, Connecticut are all getting slammed. Maryland is another looming hotspot. It's been building for awhile. You guys did good but nothing can stop this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Just now, Vice-Regent said: Maryland is another looming hotspot. It's been building for awhile. You guys did good but nothing can stop this thing. After today it certainly looks that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Just now, supernovasky said: I've looked at the data. I do think backlogs have to do with it for sure (Sunday deaths end up pushed to Monday and Tuesday), probable is contributing some, but I think the biggest driver is that other places are experiencing peaks right now. Ohio is seeing a pretty strong uptick in hospitalizations and deaths. Pennsylvnaia, Michigan, Illinois, New Jersey, Connecticut are all getting slammed. Dang...I mean it seems like with New Jersey has really been taking it on the nose with no real abatement, smh (and they got bad when NY did, didn't they?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Dang...I mean it seems like with New Jersey has really been taking it on the nose with no real abatement, smh (and they got bad when NY did, didn't they?) Yeah. New Jersey has been a slower burn but they have not started really coming down like New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Fall and winter should suck with wave two AND flu season. It better f'n snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Fall and winter should suck with wave two AND flu season. It better f'n snow I am more worried about dead trees (from freeze) and empty beaches. We know winter is like our old summers now. Such is the way of life. What do you think winter will look like after a summer of diminished aerosols? Not only that GHGs and water vapors are at record levels already. Most would agree that we are leaving a distinct cultural and climactic era behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 To be a grad student in infectious disease right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Birx on TV saying that she is seeing improvement across all large metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said: This is not at all relevant to the current discussion. Maybe you should start a flu thread. Its total bullshit. The 2017-2018 flu deaths are not confirmed laboratory tests. Lab flu deaths are minimal; they model them every year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 2,658 deaths. Probably going to surpass 2,700. Deadliest day so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: I think very close to 60K at the end of the month. Theres like almost 700k active cases right now. The outbreak could stop today and wed still have well over 60k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: The models continually adjust to real time data, and factored into the projections are continuation of the measures that are in place for specific time periods, including stay at home orders and general social distancing. I am sure you know this, but there are "suggestions" in this post to the contrary. I know this. But you have got to cut some people some slack. A lot of good people made a ton of sacrifices for others over the last month and half. I think people can hold out another week or two but beyond that we need to start opening up minus the hotspots we have discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 I wonder where the Flu Klux Klan is protesting tomorrow? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 4 hours ago, SnowGolfBro said: Agreed. I’m not saying we won’t get to 60000. I honestly think by May 15 we will be under 100 deaths a day nationwide. I’d take that bet, but I want you to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I’d take that bet, but I want you to be right. Even Italy is still at 500 daily deaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Even Italy is still at 500 daily deaths. Yeah. I just didn’t want to sound like a dooms dayer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 23 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Yeah. I just didn’t want to sound like a dooms dayer. The IMHE model has been updated and puts us at 145 deaths on May 15 FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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