COVID-19 Talk

[showmethesnow]

 

19 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

We’ll see. As of right now we are easily heading towards a few hundred thousand deaths, loss of icu capacity, and the highest per capita infection of any country if trends continue. I mean... we aren’t all shut down for nothing, and we’re going to be this way for a long time while many people die.

Just going to throw some numbers at you to give you an idea of what your idea of a 15% or even higher mortality rate we are seeing in some of the harder hit European countries actually means.

US population roughly 330,000,000

Now lets give a rough figure of a 10% infection rate (Think it will be quite a bit higher myself). 

US infected 33,000,000

Now lets give a 15% mortality rate.

4,950,000 deaths

Now for arguments sake lets say we find we have an extreme infection rate of 40%

US infected 132,000,000

19,800,000 deaths

Now even you are arguing against yourself when you expect to see a few hundred thousand deaths when you compare it to the millions or even tens of millions your , 'We are going to be worse then Europe' comments imply. Now my intention is not to pick on you, please don't think that is the case. I am just trying to point out that the numbers just don't add up for your idea of what we will see.

All that said, when the CDC came out with some numbers the other day (200,000+ deaths) I felt that they were potentially under playing the impacts somewhat. Have a feeling they were throwing out one of the better scenarios with a lower infection rate and/or mortality rate. Would not be surprised we end up seeing something that is more like double/triple that total. Hope I am wrong. 

[ErinInTheSky]

29 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 

Just going to throw some numbers at you to give you an idea of what your idea of a 15% or even higher mortality rate we are seeing in some of the harder hit European countries actually means.

US population roughly 330,000,000

Now lets give a rough figure of a 10% infection rate (Think it will be quite a bit higher myself). 

US infected 33,000,000

Now lets give a 15% mortality rate.

4,950,000 deaths

Now for arguments sake lets say we find we have an extreme infection rate of 40%

US infected 132,000,000

19,800,000 deaths

Now even you are arguing against yourself when you expect to see a few hundred thousand deaths when you compare it to the millions or even tens of millions your , 'We are going to be worse then Europe' comments imply. Now my intention is not to pick on you, please don't think that is the case. I am just trying to point out that the numbers just don't add up for your idea of what we will see.

All that said, when the CDC came out with some numbers the other day (200,000+ deaths) I felt that they were potentially under playing the impacts somewhat. Have a feeling they were throwing out one of the better scenarios with a lower infection rate and/or mortality rate. Would not be surprised we end up seeing something that is more like double/triple that total. Hope I am wrong. 

I think we are being mired in the details. Ultimately, we are arguing over adding a new cause of death as bad as cancer this year or several times worse.

 

Its bad no matter what. It could have been better, but here we are and we will be here a long time.

[Inverted_Trough]

While it's true that the silent carriers aren't being counted as being infected (i.e. the denominator), it's also likely that death counts are also significantly under-counted.

Here's an article about how Italy is likely under-counting mortality attributed to coronavirus:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-coronavirus-death-toll-is-far-higher-than-reported-11585767179  

So calculating a 'death rate' will be impossible.  Without ventilators, it's pretty clear the death rate of this virus is pretty high - at least 5%.  If this virus would have hit us 100 years ago, the death rate would have been larger than the Spanish flu (the Spanish flu CFR was about 2%)

[mappy]

Md update 

[Sparky]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

For those that are pretty much sheltering in place are you also experiencing the sensation of losing track of time? My wife and I wake up each morning having to remind each other what day it is. It has been sort of a surreal experience where everything seems out of wack. Also in the back of my mind I am constantly having the sensation that I am forgetting something or there is something I should be doing.

Guess I will put in my diary...

Day 11 of self enforced exile. Slowly losing my mind.

I have a couple of these clocks in the house.  You might find them helpful since they prominently display both Day and Date in a nice looking display.  Even the weather nerd is satiated with the indoor temperature displayed.  I have had them over a year, very reliable, multiple dimmer settings to fit the need and automatic time changes for EST, DST.

 

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07LD1S5YF/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1

[Baltimorewx]

The yoga mom group showed up at the park...if it gets to 10 people im crackin’ skulls

[BxEngine]

4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What engine you with if you don't mind me asking.

In the bronx, not gonna say which one here lol

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just jumping back in. Thanks for the support yesterday.

I agree that the national case fatality rates won’t be as high as some European countries, but the problem is that the US is a far larger country and for a lot of states and localities the mortality rates could be higher (hopeful not double digits) if capacity is exceeded. This is why there’s so much concern over the lack of ventilators. 

The only reason why we’re unlikely to hit a doomsday scenario is because thankfully we started social distancing on a large scale in time, but that’s still going to result in a lot of losses. 

Finally, I am really concerned about the long term plan. Let’s assume for every one confirmed case there are ten unconfirmed. That would still leave us with approximately 2.8 million cases. That’s just a fraction of the population. If we don’t have a plan and infrastructure in place for testing, isolation, and contact tracing, we’re either not opening things up anytime soon...or we’re going to risk disaster by opening up unprepared. 

These 100-240k projections, as horrific as they are, only take into account the first wave. God help us if we allow a second. 

Was going to reply to some of your concerns about a secondary wave but thought it would be much easier to just direct you to a post (middle of page 6) I had made yesterday on this subject. That is if you haven't read it already. 

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I just read it. Thanks. I do worry about rural areas due to less resources in a lot of those places. Even if you have lower density and infection rates hospitals may have a lower threshold for significant overwhelm. I guess we have to wait and see. 

As far the rural areas I think that may be more of a game of musical chairs between the rural and urban areas. Any secondary wave's impacts for most of the cities (there will be some exceptions I am sure) will be minimal as herd immunity will play a part from the higher infection rates we will probably see with the first wave. If the rural hospitals have the room for the extra beds they can always ship in supplies/materials from the urban areas where the demand will be nowhere near the first wave. Conversely if the rural areas lack the beds they can transport the patients to the urban hospitals. This scenario could also possibly play out between the rural and the suburban areas in some cases as well but that will depend on several factors. Really I think my bigger concern from a second wave isn't the disease itself by the measures they could possibly put in play to mitigate its impact. Our economy is taking a serious beating at this time with the measures put in place but I think we will be fine and the economy will quickly ramp up again (as long as we don't see this shutdown last months upon months). But I am not so sure it could take a double hit with a total shutdown for a couple of months for a secondary wave. Will really need to see a measured response focusing on local hot spots while keeping the rest of the country running. Now this is all assuming we even see a secondary wave which I am not so sure we will.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

As far the rural areas I think that may be more of a game of musical chairs between the rural and urban areas. Any secondary wave's impacts for most of the cities (there will be some exceptions I am sure) will be minimal as herd immunity will play a part from the higher infection rates we will probably see with the first wave. If the rural hospitals have the room for the extra beds they can always ship in supplies/materials from the urban areas where the demand will be nowhere near the first wave. Conversely if the rural areas lack the beds they can transport the patients to the urban hospitals. This scenario could also possibly play out between the rural and the suburban areas in some cases as well but that will depend on several factors. Really I think my bigger concern from a second wave isn't the disease itself by the measures they could possibly put in play to mitigate its impact. Our economy is taking a serious beating at this time with the measures put in place but I think we will be fine and the economy will quickly ramp up again (as long as we don't see this shutdown last months upon months). But I am not so sure it could take a double hit with a total shutdown for a couple of months for a secondary wave. Will really need to see a measured response focusing on local hot spots while keeping the rest of the country running. Now this is all assuming we even see a secondary wave which I am not so sure we will.

You should read this on the concept of herd immunity:

https://www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-immunity-will-not-save-us-from-the-covid-19-pandemic

[showmethesnow]

Sounds as if chloroquine is actually showing some very good promise. Have seen several articles/studies over the last week or so that have really picked up the thoughts that it may be a viable solution to mediate the impacts of the virus. Now mind you we are talking small studies but there is mounting evidence that there is in fact something there. The latest is a doctor Stephen Smith from the Smith Center for Infectious Diseases and Urban Health in New Jersey.

Sorry its Fox, as I know how many of you feel about them, but I could only find this information on Conservative sites.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-stephen-smith-on-effectiveness-of-hydroxychloroquine-with-coronavirus-symptoms-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-pandemic

 

[Inverted_Trough]

Well I'm glad to hear this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic, and that his sons told him that the results are statistically significant, therefore this must be the magic elixir!  Oh boy.  What a charlatan.

I prefer Dr. Fauci's assessments of these potential new treatments.

[Eskimo Joe]

5 hours ago, BxEngine said:

In the bronx, not gonna say which one here lol

FIL is from Brooklyn.  Wife was born in Huntingdon (sp?) and grew up on the Island.

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

You should read this on the concept of herd immunity:

https://www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-immunity-will-not-save-us-from-the-covid-19-pandemic

Yeah, I get your point.  I am not using the term quite correctly.

Kind of cringe every time I use it in the way I sometimes do but I found it was much easier to use it instead of spending a couple of paragraphs every post trying explain that this is all a numbers game. After all most hear the term herd immunity and associate it with the more that get infected initially the more it will impact the infection rate on a second go round. And I know I have used the term reaching herd immunity (such as in the cities) but it really isn't, it is more so reaching a saturation point of taking enough possible hosts out of the equation that a large uncontainable outbreak is taken out of the equation and you are dealing with smaller containable flareups. And that rate varies depending on how long an individual is infectious and how easily transmittable a virus is. I am kind of thinking a 35% might be enough to reach that criteria. Think there is a good possibility we see that in some/most of the cities. But the social distancing is an unknown variable in the equation. Going to help cut down on the infection rate, but how much is the question. 

But the article did bring up a good point. Until we get a vaccine we will not reach true herd immunity. We are going to be dealing with ever smaller outbreaks due to the numbers game, but deal with them we will have to. 

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, Inverted_Trough said:

Well I'm glad to hear this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic, and that his sons told him that the results are statistically significant, therefore this must be the magic elixir!  Oh boy.  What a charlatan.

I prefer Dr. Fauci's assessments of these potential new treatments.

LOL. Had a bet with myself that some people would just blow this off. Guess you win.

There are several other charlatans out there in other countries as well. We are still talking small sample sizes but the results we are seeing with these studies are very promising from what I am seeing. Actually results with several malaria drugs have shown promise as also an aides drug as well. 

[Inverted_Trough]

I agree that the initial evidence shows some promise, but any doctor that declaratively states "I predict this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic" based on his tiny sample size is a charlatan.  They sounds like an Instagram influencer who wants to have a "hot take".  I saw that segment live on Fox News during that show and I laughed.  Especially when he claimed his statistician kids verified his work with statistical significance tests.  (Speaking of which, statistical significance tests are often misappropriated and misunderstood, but that's a different topic) 

[showmethesnow]

8 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

I agree that the initial evidence shows some promise, but any doctor that declaratively states "I predict this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic" based on his tiny sample size is a charlatan.  They sounds like an Instagram influencer who wants to have a "hot take".  I saw that segment live on Fox News during that show and I laughed.  Especially when he claimed his statistician kids verified his work with statistical significance tests.  (Speaking of which, statistical significance tests are often misappropriated and misunderstood, but that's a different topic) 

I admit, I kind of laughed as well when I played the clip and heard that. 

But statistically what we saw was of major significance. Not going back to reread the article but what did we see, 72 patients and I believe all showed improvement? That is pretty noteworthy. 

[snowfan]

Up 11 deaths already today in MD.

[rclab]

10 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

For those that are pretty much sheltering in place are you also experiencing the sensation of losing track of time? My wife and I wake up each morning having to remind each other what day it is. It has been sort of a surreal experience where everything seems out of wack. Also in the back of my mind I am constantly having the sensation that I am forgetting something or there is something I should be doing.

Guess I will put in my diary...

Day 11 of self enforced exile. Slowly losing my mind.

For me it’s the sense of days. The sameness and lack of a normal daily flow of people and traffic sometimes leaves me thinking what same day of this different week is it. I thank heaven for the D S. Refuse pickups at least ground me to Tuesday and Friday. As always ....

[rclab]

7 hours ago, Baltimorewx said:

The yoga mom group showed up at the park...if it gets to 10 people im crackin’ skulls

Do that and you may create a new sound melody, since their all empty. As always.....

[Cobalt]

I wonder how much of a concern there is for a 2nd wave in the fall? Spanish Flu had it, H1N1 had it, both ended up being worse & more fatal than the 1st wave. Could be especially bad considering that many would be reluctant to go into a 2nd series of shutdowns in the fall

[Wonderdog]

9 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Up 11 deaths already today in MD.

A week ago the apex was supposed to be on the 14th. So expect daily increases. Hopefully the experts will be correct.

[showmethesnow]

21 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I haven't had the time to research like many here but I haven't heard much talk on the global front specifically in these heavily populated slum cities as they are called like in Mexico, Kenya, India, S. Africa etc. Some of these areas are packed in like sardines and can't practice social distancing along with subpar sanitation and water.  It's a total catastrophe waiting.  The thing is I don't think many people realize that there's a ton of countries who are just at the infancy stages of this pandemic including some of the areas I mentioned . We know where places like Italy ,Spain, France, China, Korea, Germany ,UK etc are roughly with this but there's dozens and dozens of  countries that will sacomb to this as weeks and months go by . Peaks per nation will spike at sometimes vastly different times separated by months possibly . My point is globally this is  only the beginning... looking at the big picture .

As for the U.S. my gut says we have a very long road ahead . This Virus is freaking everywhere...in every county in every state just about . Even 3 or 4 weeks ago every state had cases . Its entrenched.  I wish everyone the best . Stay healthy my friends 

You know, I haven't really been following anything besides China, Europe and the US. But I wonder how much it will have an impact with the countries straddling the equator. Especially if this is a seasonal virus where warmth will mitigate the impacts in that region. My demographics are rusty but aren't the population densities also generally lower compared to Europe, US and China?

[ErinInTheSky]

This is going to kill several times more people than the flu, in a fraction of the time, WHILE we are under intense stay at home orders.

 

Insane to imagine what this thing could do if allowed to run completely rampant.

[snowfan]

Back when this first got going in MD, there were positive cases in MoCo and PG counties from ppl returning from overseas/cruises. Would love to see those cases traced to understand how many cases are linked. 

Those 2 counties now have 1293 cases and over 20 deaths.

[arlwx]

I primarily follow two websites on CV statistics. One is the JHU website, for country and global data:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

The other one, that I use for most of the data-by-state, was cobbled together supposedly by a 17 yo whizkid:

https://ncov2019.live/data

Based on the latter's statistics (which I crosscheck against some state websites), I am less pessimistic.

As of 24 Mar, the median daily state increase was 25%.  That translates to a doubling time of 3 days.

Now, it's a bit below 15%. 15% means doubling every 5 days. BUT THAT STILL MEANS 8 times every 15 days or 64 times per 30 days.

If we could get it down to 10% median daily increase, that would be 4X every 15 days or roughly 16 times per 30 days. That would get the US at the end of 30 days to about 5M cases or about 75-125K dead.

[gunny23]

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

You know, I haven't really been following anything besides China, Europe and the US. But I wonder how much it will have an impact with the countries straddling the equator. Especially if this is a seasonal virus where warmth will mitigate the impacts in that region. My demographics are rusty but aren't the population densities also generally lower compared to Europe, US and China?

I have been tracking Ecuador for a while as we have a trip planned to the Galapagos in July (not hopeful).  I was hoping we would have a break in the summer with warmer temps and higher humidity but Ecuador is a mess right now.  Granted the people of Guayaquil where most of the cases are were not disciplined and were celebrating Carnival which led to the spread there.  In Quito it is not nearly as bad.  However, based on Florida and New Orleans as well, I don't think Covid 19 will behave like H1N1 or the seasonal flu.  It seems to be able to handle the humidity better and not break down.

[Harv_poor]

28 minutes ago, gunny23 said:

I have been tracking Ecuador for a while as we have a trip planned to the Galapagos in July (not hopeful).  I was hoping we would have a break in the summer with warmer temps and higher humidity but Ecuador is a mess right now.  Granted the people of Guayaquil where most of the cases are were not disciplined and were celebrating Carnival which led to the spread there.  In Quito it is not nearly as bad.  However, based on Florida and New Orleans as well, I don't think Covid 19 will behave like H1N1 or the seasonal flu.  It seems to be able to handle the humidity better and not break down.

We have a trip to Galapagos in January via  Guayaquil.   After reading the Wash Post article today on Ecuador, even January seems a longshot.

[gunny23]

22 minutes ago, Harv_poor said:

We have a trip to Galapagos in January via  Guayaquil.   After reading the Wash Post article today on Ecuador, even January seems a longshot.

Our final payment is due in a couple of weeks.  I'm hoping they let us postpone to next April.  Based on the trajectory of Covid 19 there is no way we would feel safe travelling through Quayaquil for some time.  Especially since it is a humanitarian crises there on top of the virus.  Really sad what is happening.... 

Who are you cruising with?  We are w Huagan on the Camila.  

Sorry if this is banter...

[WEATHER53]

We are fine and don’t know of any.

I was diagnosed with pneumonia 2/22 but no cases in MD until later. 

5 days 4 nights real bad with pneumonia. First time scared in decades. Rescue inhaler went to work quick.

This is dramatic so apologize but if anyone especially my age or more goes through my type sickness then I know why they die. I thought I might if it didn’t get better quickly. 17 days later had a big steK and salad dinner . In between the hell and being well it was slowly getting better, might pause for a day, never worsening.

Well wishes