COVID-19 Talk

[BxEngine]

4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Its real see #2

 

Unfortunately i have experienced it first hand already, hence my anger at the conspiracy theory bs. 

[Maestrobjwa]

23 minutes ago, TruthSeeker2020 said:

In US or worldwide?

Just here, unfortunately...And like 680 of those are in New York alone, smh

[jaydreb]

21 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

US. Going to be the deadliest day by far.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Every day for at least the next two weeks is going to be the deadliest day.  

[BxEngine]

22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

How are you holding up? 

Luckier than most right now so far, at least health wise....we’ll see how long it lasts. sorry to hear about what youre going through, dont be afraid to still put your own personal mental health first even when grieving. This is gonna be a brutal few weeks/months for a lot of people.

[Amped]

A 104 year old WWII veteran and another 95 year old WWII veteran managed to get the virus and survive it. If that makes anyone feel better.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/trending/world-war-ii-veteran-recovers-coronavirus-celebrates-104th-birthday/YC5YUY2SBJFFHBK2BSA6Z4MIUU/

https://abcnews.go.com/US/95-year-world-war-veteran-shares-positive-message/story?id=69931359

[TruthSeeker2020]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Unfortunately i have experienced it first hand already, hence my anger at the conspiracy theory bs. 

The conspiracy theory stuff is really really unfortunate.  Whenever stuff like this happens it is a chance for the crazies to come out of the wood work... I was reading this one article by this nutcase epidemiologist today in England who was trying to claim that the death numbers were completely skewed because officials were including deaths in cases where they couldnt definitively say that the virus was the actual cause of death.. so in other words he was trying to make the claim that health officials were misreporting deaths.. 

Its like...  who does that?  What does is he trying to prove?  

We are in the biggest crisis in the history of mankind.. there is no time or room for that type of talk. 

In fact it is dangerous.. if you dont get the right message out there.. people are gonna start ignoring this.. and the results will be disastrous.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Unfortunately i have experienced it first hand already, hence my anger at the conspiracy theory bs. 

It’s unavoidable. An old boss of mine is a Qanon tin foil hat nutcase and it’s amazing what he shares on his FB wall. I mean some of it’s like grocery store tabloid level stupid.  The theme seems to be “take ANYTHING that doesn’t fit his preferred narrative and twist it into a conspiracy that does”. But some of those absolutely lunatic level crap posts have 100,000 likes.

[EastCoast NPZ]

11 minutes ago, TruthSeeker2020 said:

The conspiracy theory stuff is really really unfortunate.  Whenever stuff like this happens it is a chance for the crazies to come out of the wood work... I was reading this one article by this nutcase epidemiologist today in England who was trying to claim that the death numbers were completely skewed because officials were including deaths in cases where they couldnt definitively say that the virus was the actual cause of death.. so in other words he was trying to make the claim that health officials were misreporting deaths.. 

Its like...  who does that?  What does is he trying to prove?  

We are in the biggest crisis in the history of mankind.. there is no time or room for that type of talk. 

In fact it is dangerous.. if you dont get the right message out there.. people are gonna start ignoring this.. and the results will be disastrous.

Ever hear of a thing called the Plague(s), or smallpox?

[gymengineer]

So is anyone else seeing Ji’s twitter presence showing up in curated streams being the absolutely worst version of himself? Like to the point of meriting no response but causing the person to waste time answering because of his trolling ability? But this time about COVID-19’s seriousness. 

[Inverted_Trough]

Might be behind a paywall, but here's a great investigative article about how we spent the month of January and February getting prepared for this thing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/04/03/coronavirus-cdc-test-kits-public-health-labs/?arc404=true

 

[showmethesnow]

New study out yesterday that suggest roughly 50% of those infected experience no symptoms at all. Adds weight to a previous study that 80% have minor to no symptoms from a month or so ago. In fact it might even go somewhat beyond as it might suggest there are even more silent carriers then the 80% study. 

Much of my thoughts for some time now were based on that 80% study because it felt right with how we were seeing things play out world wide. If these studies are correct we are more then likely seeing a higher infection rate, potentially much higher, then we currently believe to be the case. This is pretty much the reason I have thrown out numbers of a .75-1.25% true mortality rate for the US that I am sure many have scoffed at and probably still are. Now will we be able to ever figure out the true mortality rate? I am not sure. Depends. Short of nation wide testing of every citizen (won't happen), we will be depending on accurate modeling to catch all these hidden carriers. I will say I have my doubts on that though I might be doing a disservice to the statisticians. So in consideration of that I would not be surprised to see official numbers come in with totals up to around 2%.

Now for those throwing out European style numbers of double digit mortality rates or worse here in the States all I can say is I don't see it. Nothing I have seen up to this time even remotely suggests this. Think we are probably even going to see a major readjustment of some of those numbers in Europe downwards after the fact. And I am not trying to down play the seriousness of the situation here, because it is some serious crap, but all these death, doom and destruction predictions are far out of line with what the ground truth is telling us. All they do is fuel unnecessary panic when what we need to see here is a semblance of calm.

[Eskimo Joe]

10 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Luckier than most right now so far, at least health wise....we’ll see how long it lasts. sorry to hear about what youre going through, dont be afraid to still put your own personal mental health first even when grieving. This is gonna be a brutal few weeks/months for a lot of people.

What engine you with if you don't mind me asking.

[showmethesnow]

@Eskimo Joe

Curious at your thoughts on why you don't agree with my comment above.

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

New study out yesterday that suggest roughly 50% of those infected experience no symptoms at all. Adds weight to a previous study that 80% have minor to no symptoms from a month or so ago. In fact it might even go somewhat beyond as it might suggest there are even more silent carriers then the 80% study. 

Much of my thoughts for some time now were based on that 80% study because it felt right with how we were seeing things play out world wide. If these studies are correct we are more then likely seeing a higher infection rate, potentially much higher, then we currently believe to be the case. This is pretty much the reason I have thrown out numbers of a .75-1.25% true mortality rate for the US that I am sure many have scoffed at and probably still are. Now will we be able to ever figure out the true mortality rate? I am not sure. Depends. Short of nation wide testing of every citizen (won't happen), we will be depending on accurate modeling to catch all these hidden carriers. I will say I have my doubts on that though I might be doing a disservice to the statisticians. So in consideration of that I would not be surprised to see official numbers come in with totals up to around 2%.

Now for those throwing out European style numbers of double digit mortality rates or worse here in the States all I can say is I don't see it. Nothing I have seen up to this time even remotely suggests this. Think we are probably even going to see a major readjustment of some of those numbers in Europe downwards after the fact. And I am not trying to down play the seriousness of the situation here, because it is some serious crap, but all these death, doom and destruction predictions are far out of line with what the ground truth is telling us. All they do is fuel unnecessary panic when what we need to see here is a semblance of calm.

I saw something a couple days ago that 25-50% may exhibit no symptoms. I would have to go back and look at what study that came from- may have been a report based on 2 different ones.

Given the lack of available/timely testing, and how highly contagious this virus is, it may end up that the majority of us will be exposed to it in the coming weeks/months, and those who exhibit no/very mild symptoms will simply never know they had it. The social distancing/use of masks, etc are the key to preventing the non-symptomatic from spreading it. Plenty of uncertainties with modeling(as we all know here). Just my unscientific, pragmatic thoughts.

[showmethesnow]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

I saw something a couple days ago that 25-50% may exhibit no symptoms. I would have to go back and look at what study that came from- may have been a report based on 2 different ones.

Given the lack of available/timely testing, and how highly contagious this virus is, it may end up that the majority of us will be exposed to it in the coming weeks/months, and those who exhibit no/very mild symptoms will simply never know they had it. The social distancing/use of masks, etc are the key to preventing the non-symptomatic from spreading it. Plenty of uncertainties with modeling(as we all know here). Just my unscientific, pragmatic thoughts.

Not sure I saw that study. At least I don't remember it which isn't surprising considering om a doddering old senile man. 

Have thought for some time that this virus was percolating in the States quite a bit of time before we currently believe. Maybe substantially longer if the supposed cases that have recently been found in China in the November time frame are accurate. But to be honest anything that comes out of China these days I am taking with a huge dose of skepticism. So I guess we will see.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Not sure I saw that study. At least I don't remember it which isn't surprising considering om a doddering old senile man. 

Have thought for some time that this virus was percolating in the States quite a bit of time before we currently believe. Maybe substantially longer if the supposed cases that have recently been found in China in the November time frame are accurate. But to be honest anything that comes out of China these days I am taking with a huge dose of skepticism. So I guess we will see.

This is the one I saw from a few days ago.

https://www.zmescience.com/medicine/iceland-testing-covid-19-0523/

[North Balti Zen]

9 hours ago, gymengineer said:

So is anyone else seeing Ji’s twitter presence showing up in curated streams being the absolutely worst version of himself? Like to the point of meriting no response but causing the person to waste time answering because of his trolling ability? But this time about COVID-19’s seriousness. 

Yes. He’s doing the politics thing to protect his guy in the WH. It’s embarrassing.

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This is the one I saw from a few days ago.

https://www.zmescience.com/medicine/iceland-testing-covid-19-0523/

Okay, that was the same study I was referencing above. I didn't see any reference to the 25% bottom range though. Maybe I am just overlooking it.

One thing to take away from it though is that it was a limited study with a small sample size. Also need to consider other factors such as that hereditary back ground, blood type, genetic makeup etc..., With such a small sample size we aren't going to get a diverse representation that we see with a larger group let alone the diversity we see in the States. But it is a good starting point to get a base idea of what we can expect.

[ErinInTheSky]

54 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

New study out yesterday that suggest roughly 50% of those infected experience no symptoms at all. Adds weight to a previous study that 80% have minor to no symptoms from a month or so ago. In fact it might even go somewhat beyond as it might suggest there are even more silent carriers then the 80% study. 

Much of my thoughts for some time now were based on that 80% study because it felt right with how we were seeing things play out world wide. If these studies are correct we are more then likely seeing a higher infection rate, potentially much higher, then we currently believe to be the case. This is pretty much the reason I have thrown out numbers of a .75-1.25% true mortality rate for the US that I am sure many have scoffed at and probably still are. Now will we be able to ever figure out the true mortality rate? I am not sure. Depends. Short of nation wide testing of every citizen (won't happen), we will be depending on accurate modeling to catch all these hidden carriers. I will say I have my doubts on that though I might be doing a disservice to the statisticians. So in consideration of that I would not be surprised to see official numbers come in with totals up to around 2%.

Now for those throwing out European style numbers of double digit mortality rates or worse here in the States all I can say is I don't see it. Nothing I have seen up to this time even remotely suggests this. Think we are probably even going to see a major readjustment of some of those numbers in Europe downwards after the fact. And I am not trying to down play the seriousness of the situation here, because it is some serious crap, but all these death, doom and destruction predictions are far out of line with what the ground truth is telling us. All they do is fuel unnecessary panic when what we need to see here is a semblance of calm.

Mortality rates are kind of useless to speculate over at this point. This is not a rate problem but a capacity problem. Even a novel flu with a mortality rate of .1% can strain the health care system. A coronavirus with no immunity and a mortality rate of 0.6-0.7% (true, infection based) is catastrophic. On top of that, once the medical system is adequately wrecked, the mortality rate shoots up. When ventilators no longer are available, more people die. 

Right now on a daily basis, COVID is the 3rd largest killer. In the next few days on a daily basis, it will be the largest, surpassing heart disease in this country:

 

https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-no-3-cause-death-us-after-heart-disease-cancer-1495506
 

On top of all of this is the chemotherapy being delayed, the drug supply shortages, the less and less ICU capacity to handle strokes and heart attacks, etc.

Quibbling over death rates Being 0.7 or 3.4 in a pandemic is next to useless - when all is said and done we will be able to look back and calculate it properly.

[showmethesnow]

For those that are pretty much sheltering in place are you also experiencing the sensation of losing track of time? My wife and I wake up each morning having to remind each other what day it is. It has been sort of a surreal experience where everything seems out of wack. Also in the back of my mind I am constantly having the sensation that I am forgetting something or there is something I should be doing.

Guess I will put in my diary...

Day 11 of self enforced exile. Slowly losing my mind.

[ErinInTheSky]

So the US is about to run out of drugs required to run ventilators.

 

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/04/826961777/u-s-may-get-more-ventilators-but-run-out-of-medicine-for-covid-19-patients

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

Mortality rates are kind of useless to speculate over at this point. This is not a rate problem but a capacity problem. Even a novel flu with a mortality rate of .1% can strain the health care system. A coronavirus with no immunity and a mortality rate of 0.6-0.7% (true, infection based) is catastrophic. On top of that, once the medical system is adequately wrecked, the mortality rate shoots up. When ventilators no longer are available, more people die. 

Right now on a daily basis, COVID is the 3rd largest killer. In the next few days on a daily basis, it will be the largest, surpassing heart disease in this country:

 

https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-no-3-cause-death-us-after-heart-disease-cancer-1495506
 

On top of all of this is the chemotherapy being delayed, the drug supply shortages, the less and less ICU capacity to handle strokes and heart attacks, etc.

Quibbling over death rates Being 0.7 or 3.4 in a pandemic is next to useless - when all is said and done we will be able to look back and calculate it properly.

But also throwing out comments that we are going to see rates that will out pace even the worst hit European countries is useless as well.

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

But also throwing out comments that we are going to see rates that will out pace even the worst hit European countries is useless as well.

I’m not so sure of that. Let’s hope we don’t but we are still running behind Europe. They hit their vent capacities and their rates shot up. Some states are already seeing pretty high mortality rates, including my home state of Louisiana.

[Eskimo Joe]

55 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

@Eskimo Joe

Curious at your thoughts on why you don't agree with my comment above.

I removed me reaction and I'm just going to stop posting at this point. 

[showmethesnow]

Just now, supernovasky said:

I’m not so sure of that. Let’s hope we don’t but we are still running behind Europe. They hit their vent capacities and their rates shot up. Some states are already seeing pretty high mortality rates, including my home state of Louisiana.

I really see nothing to indicate at this time that we are going to see anything near what was seen in Europe. Really nothing. Even if we do see some of the States/Cities reach and break through their capacity with healthcare and treatment doesn't warrant the numbers you propose. And if we play this smart we can get through this with very minimal impact in that regards despite our limited resources. If you note the peak is reaching different portions of the country at different times. Think these peaks are spread over a month and half. It will come down to it being an elaborate shell game when all is said and told.

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I removed me reaction and I'm just going to stop posting at this point. 

I didn't mind your reaction. It didn't hurt my feelings. I was just curious of your thoughts and what you found wrong with it.

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

I really see nothing to indicate at this time that we are going to see anything near what was seen in Europe. Really nothing. Even if we do see some of the States/Cities reach and break through their capacity with healthcare and treatment doesn't warrant the numbers you propose. And if we play this smart we can get through this with very minimal impact in that regards despite our limited resources. If you note the peak is reaching different portions of the country at different times. Think these peaks are spread over a month and half. It will come down to it being an elaborate shell game when all is said and told.

We’ll see. As of right now we are easily heading towards a few hundred thousand deaths, loss of icu capacity, and the highest per capita infection of any country if trends continue. I mean... we aren’t all shut down for nothing, and we’re going to be this way for a long time while many people die.

[ErinInTheSky]

“Mankind’s greatest failure is it’s inability to understand the exponential function.”

 

- Prof Albert Bartlett

 

Every country, ours included, thought it couldn’t get that bad.

 

Well almost every country. Singapore, South Korea, Japan all were on top of their stuff and stockpiled.

[CAPE]

Euler's number is so bad ass.

[rclab]

33 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

“Mankind’s greatest failure is it’s inability to understand the exponential function.”

 

- Prof Albert Bartlett

 

Every country, ours included, thought it couldn’t get that bad.

 

Well almost every country. Singapore, South Korea, Japan all were on top of their stuff and stockpiled.

Seriously, as an 8th decade senior, I pray “This Too Shall Pass” before I/many more do. As always.....