COVID-19 Talk

[Wonderdog]

3 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I'm just glad I live in a reasonable state like Maryland so we can let the dumb states like Florida and Texas be the testing ground for what opening early looks like for us.

That's very Christian of you.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

It’s kinda funny to watch.  It makes me chuckle and think “this guy must win a lot of arguments in the shower”.

If I "win" this argument, it means a lot of people didn't die and we got back to normal much earlier. I'm OK with that.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

9 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

What if they open and everything is fine? What will the new pivot be in your narrative on deadliness? They are fudging the numbers?

There would be no pivot.  That would be awesome and everyone would be happy. 

[PhineasC]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

There would be no pivot.  That would be awesome and everyone would be happy. 

I'm not so sure, but I hope you are right. There will be years of finger-pointing and second-guessing from all directions after this. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I'm not so sure, but I hope you are right. There will be years of finger-pointing and second-guessing from all directions after this. 

If you want to point fingers my advice would be point them at the officials who denied/ignored this threat for months while it was obvious it was coming.  If they had taken it seriously initially we wouldn’t be in nearly as bad of a predicament with these lockdowns. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

It's weird. I think he is mistaking caution and restraint for glee over death, which is just a bit sick.

I want as few people to die from this as possible. Hence why I've done my part to flatten the curve.

Yes, this is correct IMO. 

[nw baltimore wx]

There is one of those loud minorities gathered in Annapolis right now. It sounds like Harbormaster Frank Silva’s marina the day they all went out fishing.

https://www.facebook.com/arundelpatriot/

[PhineasC]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

There is one of those loud minorities gathered in Annapolis right now. It sounds like Harbormaster Frank Silva’s marina the day they all went out fishing.

https://www.facebook.com/arundelpatriot/

Protests are always the minority, but then there is sometimes a majority quietly agreeing from home. Always been that way.

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Some people here are against ending the lockdowns because Trump wants to end them early and they are afraid he will be right and score a huge win. Period.

I feel confident that regardless of how any of this all’s turn out, our president will somehow find a way to claim victory. 
 

Make sure we get a picture for the paper even though the radius isn’t quite right.

[NorthArlington101]

Some people here are against ending the lockdowns because Trump wants to end them early and they are afraid he will be right and score a huge win. Period.

Much more afraid that ending the lockdowns early is the wrong call and we are all stuck inside longer! Oh, and it means thousands more people will die.

 

If it’s the right call, that’s fantastic and it means I can enjoy my summer. If it’s wrong, it’ll be an unprecedented national tragedy.

[snowfan]

Y'all need to stop letting phin get under your skin. Some of his points are valid, even if the delivery is bit rough. No different than the other side also has valid points.

Finding and implementing a middle ground isnt always easy. I dont want people to die, but I also dont want people to lose their jobs, homes, etc. I dont think any of us want that for our communities.

There will be a gradual reopening, which is necessary. That's something I believe we can all agree on. That process is likely to start in May. If successful, its broadened further and further over time.

This summer is likely to be highlighted by some weirdness that will become our new norm until a vaccine is in place.

Hopefully, there are real lessons learned and applied from this to better position all of us to handle something similar when it happens again. It will.

[ErinInTheSky]

14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Much more afraid that ending the lockdowns early is the wrong call and we are all stuck inside longer! Oh, and it means thousands more people will die.

 

If it’s the right call, that’s fantastic and it means I can enjoy my summer. If it’s wrong, it’ll be an unprecedented national tragedy.

Yeah, this is my main concern. End lockdowns early and then we're back to where we were, and then we have to lock down again.

[Wonderdog]

Just now, supernovasky said:

Yeah, this is my main concern. End lockdowns early and then we're back to where we were, and then we have to lock down again.

At what point would you end the lockdown?

[PhineasC]

18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Much more afraid that ending the lockdowns early is the wrong call and we are all stuck inside longer! Oh, and it means thousands more people will die.

 

If it’s the right call, that’s fantastic and it means I can enjoy my summer. If it’s wrong, it’ll be an unprecedented national tragedy.

This is already an unprecedented national tragedy in terms of the lockdown (not even close in terms of deaths from the virus).

[NorthArlington101]

This is already an unprecedented national tragedy in terms of the lockdown (not even close in terms of deaths from the virus).

Agreed, it’s a lose-lose. But if holding onto the lockdown for a couple more weeks could prevent us having to do it again throughout next fall and winter... that would be the lesser national tragedy, IMO.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

25 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

LOL well didn't take long to see where your finger is pointing. So if a bunch of red states open and are fine (and Trump claims victory), you will be happy too? I doubt it. I think you will argue the numbers are being fudged and people are still dying by the bushel-basket.

Yes absolutely.  I want things back to normal.  Don’t want a second round of outbreaks and restrictive measures.  

[snowfan]

There are going to be setbacks during the reopening, but I believe you'll see "hot spot" containment when those setbacks occur. We wont go back to the entire country being on lockdown as long as common sense prevails.

[PhineasC]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Agreed, it’s a lose-lose. But if holding onto the lockdown for a couple more weeks could prevent us having to do it again throughout next fall and winter... that would be the lesser national tragedy, IMO.

I don't see how another 30 days of lockdowns now prevents or weakens a second wave in November. The only things that can mitigate that are:

1) Vaccine (not happening by then)

2) Very robust test and trace infrastructure (maybe)

3) Continued lockdowns until then (no way)

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, snowfan said:

There are going to be setbacks during the reopening, but I believe you'll see "hot spot" containment when those setbacks occur. We wont go back to the entire country being on lockdown as long as common sense prevails.

The pictures out of Jacksonville do not give me hope for "common sense".

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I don't see how another 30 days of lockdowns now prevents or weakens a second wave in November. The only things that can mitigate that are:

1) Vaccine (not happening by then)

2) Very robust test and trace infrastructure (maybe)

3) Continued lockdowns until then (no way)

It will reduce the spread which will make it easier to manage.  

[PhineasC]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

It will reduce the spread which will make it easier to manage.  

Has nothing to do with second wave in November. I also really don't buy the overwhelmed hospitals narrative anymore. Is any country on earth seeing widely overwhelmed hospitals with people dying in hallways or in triage tents outside?  More and more, the medical community is saying NOT to intubate when the patient is very old and sick because it lowers their chances of survival to near zero.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

NJ and NY deaths down around a hundred each from yesterday, hopefully the trend continues and that truly means we’re over the hump in nyc metro in terms of death. 

[snowfan]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

The pictures out of Jacksonville do not give me hope for "common sense".

Maybe so, but those pics didnt look awful to me. A large stretch of beach w folks up and moving can appear way more crowded from some webcam view at a distance. And, I believe they're only allowing folks out in the morning and evening.

[psuhoffman]

19 hours ago, supernovasky said:

@psuhoffman whelp we have our answers on beaches then

We aren’t finding out anything new. Was there any doubt a segment of our societies penchant for either “rugged individualism” or “selfishness” depending on who you are taking to, would be a huge problem in dealing with any problem that requires collective action and sacrifice?   Isn’t this the main reason we haven’t been able to deal with any number of recent pressing issues?  Healthcare?  Gun violence?  Education?  Infrastructure?  Poverty?  We can’t solve lots of problems because there is a portion of our population that doesn’t want to sacrifice a darn thing for the good of anyone else and they even constructed a narrative that we are all better off that way!  

4 hours ago, DCTeacherman said:

 

Great thread getting at exactly what I was saying wrt IDR the other day and how even if it’s lower the comps to influenza are invalid.  Unfortunately all anyone on the “this is no big deal” side of the debate is going to get out of that is “fake news”. 

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

There is a theory that NYC closed too late and what we are seeing there is an unfettered burn-through basically. Hospitals there have not been overwhelmed to the point people can’t get care. 

So accepting this narrative, you think letting what happened in NYC happen across the whole US in every urban area is acceptable? Don’t bother...  It’s a rhetorical question in case you couldn’t tell!

46 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Lashing out at me online won't change a thing for you. Hope things improve for you.

 

41 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It's crazy how triggered some of you are getting by the idea this disease may not be as deadly or long-winded as you thought. Sheesh. Talk about having a tribal attitude. 

Yea except lashing out and emotional response is exactly what you want. You trigger people so you can accuse them of being triggered.  It’s an intellectually dishonest endeavor.  It’s also hypocritical because you get triggered quite easily. 

I’m out.  See you all tomorrow 

 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

We aren’t finding out anything new. Was there any doubt a segment of our societies penchant for either “rugged individualism” or “selfishness” depending on who you are taking to, would be a huge problem in dealing with any problem that requires collective action and sacrifice?   Isn’t this the main reason we haven’t been able to deal with any number of recent pressing issues?  Healthcare?  Gun violence?  Education?  Infrastructure?  Poverty?  We can’t solve lots of problems because there is a portion of our population that doesn’t want to sacrifice a darn thing for the good of anyone else and they even constructed a narrative that we are all better off that way!  

Great thread getting at exactly what I was saying wrt IDR the other day and how even if it’s lower the comps to influenza are invalid.  Unfortunately all anyone on the “this is no big deal” side of the debate is going to get out of that is “fake news”. 

So accepting this narrative, you think letting what happened in NYC happen across the whole US in every urban area is acceptable? Don’t bother...  It’s a rhetorical question in case you couldn’t tell!

 

Yea except lashing out and emotional response is exactly what you want. You trigger people so you can accuse them of being triggered.  It’s an intellectually dishonest endeavor.  It’s also hypocritical because you get triggered quite easily. 

I’m out.  See you all tomorrow 

 

LOL the guy who has meltdowns every winter over being "fringed" is not in a position of any sort to lecture on cool and dispassionate scientific debate.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

LOL the guy who has meltdowns every winter over being "fringed" is not in a position of any sort to lecture on cool and dispassionate scientific debate.

[jaydreb]

8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I also really don't buy the overwhelmed hospitals narrative anymore. Is any country on earth seeing widely overwhelmed hospitals with people dying in hallways or in triage tents outside?  

Seeing as though just about every country has instituted some form of a shutdown, I’m not sure what your point is.  We’re not seeing overwhelmed hospitals (thankfully) because we’ve been social distancing and staying home.  Had we not done so, we very well might have been overwhelmed.  

It’s like asking someone who doesn’t have dandruff why they are using dandruff-preventing shampoo.  

[PhineasC]

Just now, jaydreb said:

Seeing as though just about every country has instituted some form of a shutdown, I’m not sure what your point is.  We’re not seeing overwhelmed hospitals (thankfully) because we’ve been social distancing and staying home.  Had we not done so, we very well might have been overwhelmed.  

It’s like asking someone who doesn’t have dandruff why they are using dandruff-preventing shampoo.  

There are countries out there with no national lockdowns in place. Social distancing guidelines are very different from a government mandated lockdown where you can be arrested for partaking in certain activities. This question may never be adequately answered, but I think the models showing hospitals being overwhelmed made the following mistakes:

1) Took the outlier Italy CFR numbers too literally.

2) failed to factor in the huge drop in people going to the hospital and doctors for other reasons

3) greatly overestimated ventilator need

4) didn’t properly account for self-selection bias and massive undercounting of total infected when looking at daily hospitalization rates 

I feel like the hospital narrative has been quietly going away as we have learned more about these four things. 

[ErinInTheSky]

- We also should have shut down travel to Italy and honestly, all international travel, sooner.

- We shouldn't have had an absolutely defective test, should have used the WHO test as a stopgap, which worked for other countries that used it like South Korea and Sinagpore and Taiwan.

- We should have started widespread PPE manufacturing in January as well as securing supply chains.

- The CDC should have issued mass gathering guidance much earlier when it was clear community spread was happening.

 

(There are about a million other things we should have done)

[WxUSAF]

No trump talk