COVID-19 Talk

[40westwx]

 

The two graphics are from 2015-2016 (weeks 1-3) and 2017-2018 (weeks 1-3).  As I said previously, deaths don't lie.  The numbers indicate:

• Roughy a 20-25% increase in overall deaths during years with a severe flu outbreak.  67, 495 deaths Week two in  2017-2018 vs 55,525 week two 2015 - 2016.
• This is a 12,000 death increase
• This a huge anomaly that cannot be ignored.
• In 2018, only 5000 of the approximate 12,000 increase deaths (per week) were actually attributed to the flu but an additional 5,000 - 7,000 people per week were dying (this is US data).  

Why does this mean? 

I think the answer may be very simple.  The data below is based on death certificates from the states.  It seems that during a severe flu outbreak, many deaths are attributed to other factors (like natural causes or other end of life co-morbidities).  But in reality, the straw that broke the camels back (as we are seeing with the Corona Virus today) is the flu and resulting pneumonia.  This makes sense because viruses are opportunistic and will invade susceptible hosts at end of life.   

2015 - 2016

2017 - 2018

What does this tell us about the numbers we are seeing today?  Well it depends on how you look at it.  We have social distancing which prevents us from seeing the true toll Corona Virus would take if preventative measure were not taken.  But I think if you look just a little bit deeper.. right under the surface, what you find is that if you look for a Virus, you will find it.  In 2017 - 2018, if the flu that year was a media sensation (like it is this year), if every singe person who died would be tested for the flu.  Based on the 12,000 increase in death, they would probably find (at minimum) an additional 4000 - 6000 people that could be attributed to the flu.  

Now, if compared to today..  you may say this is nothing.. 7,000 people died in New York in one Calendar month. Not so fast.. 

My follow up post will show you something that is even more eye opening.. in 2017-2018, the vast majority of the deaths were in two hotspots: Florida and California

Welcome to a new day of the American weather corona virus statistical rabbit hole

I am going fishing with my son.. I will post the follow up when I come back..  and I am sure that many of you will not read it because it is from me!

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

Now, I don't know enough about the subject, but...an opinion of this professor (apparently a mathematician?) is that it was basically for nothing and that the virus follows a fixed pattern regardless of shutdowns...thoughts?

https://townhall.com/columnists/marinamedvin/2020/04/15/israeli-professor-shows-virus-follows-fixed-pattern-n2566915

[nw baltimore wx]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I don't know how much weight to give this, but...thoughts?

https://www.afa.net/the-stand/culture/2020/04/shutdowns-were-pointless-all-along/?fbclid=IwAR1YzXyP2KLDrtQfheunxbfIgzqhMMb8NHbmaxaI0zc6a6lTjkvEk0VxT2k#.XpnwkkhQ_ZA.facebook

If we had gone about the usual business, hospitals across the country would have been completely overwhelmed. I don’t disagree that the virus has to run its course, but we don’t need to open up a smorgasbord.
 

(Goal for the day: make a Jaws reference in as many posts as I can)

[snowfan]

+736 cases, +38 deaths in md

[OSUmetstud]

Why is that Ben Israel character getting some much play? He's not an epidemiologist. There's no way that social distancing doesn't matter. It literally flies in the face of like a 100 years of germ theory. 

[ErinInTheSky]

13 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Why is that Ben Israel character getting some much play? He's not an epidemiologist. There's no way that social distancing doesn't matter. It literally flies in the face of like a 100 years of germ theory. 

Everyone who wants to get out is frantically clutching at anybody with a title or any statistic that gets posted that tells them this is all for nothing.

 

[Wonderdog]

12 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Why is that Ben Israel character getting some much play? He's not an epidemiologist. There's no way that social distancing doesn't matter. It literally flies in the face of like a 100 years of germ theory. 

Mathematician from Tel Aviv. Good question for Fauci.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

21 minutes ago, snowfan said:

+736 cases, +38 deaths in md

No slowdown, today was 21% positive which is slightly down, need to see that happen day after day. 

[snowfan]

Re: stimulus.....if you owed, you dont get your money til they send checks. They're not using the provided routing and acct #s to debit your stimulus for those that paid. Only if you got a refund. Not sure if everyone was aware.

[snowfan]

Still a net of +110 hospitalizations yesterday in md. 145 in, 35 out. 

[PhineasC]

30 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

If we had gone about the usual business, hospitals across the country would have been completely overwhelmed. I don’t disagree that the virus has to run its course, but we don’t need to open up a smorgasbord.
 

(Goal for the day: make a Jaws reference in as many posts as I can)

There is a theory that NYC closed too late and what we are seeing there is an unfettered burn-through basically. Hospitals there have not been overwhelmed to the point people can’t get care. 

[PhineasC]

28 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Why is that Ben Israel character getting some much play? He's not an epidemiologist. There's no way that social distancing doesn't matter. It literally flies in the face of like a 100 years of germ theory. 

Lockdowns implemented too late may not be all that helpful if the virus has already infected a critical mass of people. 

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Lockdowns implemented too late may not be all that helpful if the virus has already infected a critical mass of people. 

That is true. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Lockdowns implemented too late may not be all that helpful if the virus has already infected a critical mass of people. 

Yeah, but that isn’t true anywhere in the US, not even close. 

[nw baltimore wx]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

There is a theory that NYC closed too late and what we are seeing there is an unfettered burn-through basically. Hospitals there have not been overwhelmed to the point people can’t get care. 

I’d argue that they didn’t close too late. If we want to find out, open her up and let’s see if that little Alex Kitner kid gets spilled out all over the pier.

[PhineasC]

One thing I’m glad he pointed out is that Lombardy is a total outlier. There are numerous stories from years past of the flu absolutely ravaging them in a very short amount of time and crushing their hospital system. No other country is having the same issues. 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah, but that isn’t true anywhere in the US, not even close. 

It could be in NYC, we won’t know until we have serological data. Millions could have the disease already. I know most of you here seem to think that theory is bunk, but plenty of credentialed scientists believe it. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

One thing I’m glad he pointed out is that Lombardy is a total outlier. There are numerous stories from years past of the flu absolutely ravaging them in a very short amount of time and crushing their hospital system. No other country is having the same issues. 

Source

[nw baltimore wx]

10:30AM on a cloudy day in Jacksonville.  Shark in the pond.
 

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Source

One such source was right in the prior link:

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

I think they might have been on the later side. I remember there being back and forth between the mayor and gov over NYC shutting down for at least a few days. Mayor really didn’t want to close schools, parks stayed open even after it was clear there were people not following guidelines. I don’t think it resulted in unfettered burn-through though. As horrible as it sounds, I think we closed things down as a nation just in time. 

Reading a variety of articles, it seems like a lot of people couldn’t or didn’t get care. The 911 DOA calls were extraordinarily high. They estimated thousands in NYC died at home. Obviously not all COVID but a lot were. 

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/08/829506542/after-deaths-at-home-in-nyc-officials-plan-to-count-many-as-covid-19

Some of those deaths were COVID-19, and some were people too scared to go to the ER for their other medical issues, I think. 

[nw baltimore wx]

Regarding the beaches in the Jacksonville area, I read that they are open from 6-11AM and again from 5-8 PM. You must also always be moving. No groups larger than 10. No chairs, coolers, sunbathing, etc.

I still don’t think it’s a good idea. Not yet.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Regarding the beaches in the Jacksonville area, I read that they are open from 6-11AM and again from 5-8 PM. You must also always be moving. No groups larger than 10. No chairs, coolers, sunbathing, etc.

I still don’t think it’s a good idea. Not yet.

 People are outdoors and if they are staying in groups of a few and moving along it would seem to be low risk. Problem is where it goes from there. People tend to get 'too comfortable' at some point. Adequate enforcement is key.

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

 People are outdoors and if they are staying in groups of a few and moving along it would seem to be low risk. Problem is where it goes from there. People tend to get 'too comfortable' at some point. Adequate enforcement is key.

No doubt. I was just watching them clear the beaches and It it’s pretty difficult to practice safe social distancing when everyone gets funneled into a dune crossing.

[PhineasC]

People are growing super tired of the “enforcement” of government-mandated quarantines that seem to be a moving target. It’s not something that can last much longer before people simply stop listening. And when those who disobey don’t drop dead because they had a BBQ, others will follow. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Someone on fb tried to say this wasn't an actual pandemic based on this...thoughts?

(For context, I had said she should be careful before comparing the virus to just your run-of-the-mill seasonal germs and such)

 

[nw baltimore wx]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

People are growing super tired of the “enforcement” of government-mandated quarantines that seem to be a moving target. It’s not something that can last much longer before people simply stop listening. And when those who disobey don’t drop dead because they had a BBQ, others will follow. 

Some people, for sure. But I think there are an equal number of folks (me included) that aren’t willing to risk it anytime soon. I’m not afraid of getting it and not recovering, but I don’t want to be someone that gets someone else sick that can’t recover. We can still save August.

[PhineasC]

Protests in SoCal now of all places. Patience with lockdowns falling apart across the land. Only a matter of time now. If you are still super scared of this virus (several here come to mind), you need to prep to lock yourself down indefinitely while everyone else goes back out. 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Some people, for sure. But I think there are an equal number of folks (me included) that aren’t willing to risk it anytime soon. I’m not afraid of getting it and not recovering, but I don’t want to be someone that gets someone else sick that can’t recover. We can still save August.

Frankly, that other person who gets sick and can’t recover took their own chances by going out without a mask or other precautions. This virus floats on the breeze. You cannot hold yourself responsible. There is also a chance you already had it and infected people... wait for serum tests. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

People are growing super tired of the “enforcement” of government-mandated quarantines that seem to be a moving target. It’s not something that can last much longer before people simply stop listening. And when those who disobey don’t drop dead because they had a BBQ, others will follow. 

This becomes a bigger "issue" as the weather warms. The way things are looking, it shouldn't be a problem in many places over the next month or so. Small gatherings outside around the pool will go on regardless.