COVID-19 Talk

[mappy]

I truly hope Hogan opens the state on a dimmer switch and not at all once. Ease into it. Pleaseeeee

[snowfan]

Just now, mappy said:

I truly hope Hogan opens the state on a dimmer switch and not at all once. Ease into it. Pleaseeeee

I think he will in coordination w VA and DC. I'm expecting him to enter phase 1 in the may 15th time frame. That sets you up for phase 2 beginning june 1 if all goes well. We're talking another 40+ days from now.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

I think he will in coordination w VA and DC. I'm expecting him to enter phase 1 in the may 15th time frame. That sets you up for phase 2 beginning june 1 if all goes well. We're talking another 40+ days from now.

It all depends.  Somehow we’re still adding 700 cases a day. That needs to stop soon. 

[jaydreb]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

I truly hope Hogan opens the state on a dimmer switch and not at all once. Ease into it. Pleaseeeee

Did you see the Phases?

[snowfan]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

It all depends.  Somehow we’re still adding 700 cases a day. That needs to stop soon. 

No doubt. Any setbacks along the way slow things down. Fauci was very open this evening.....there will be setbacks. And, we will deal with them.

[mappy]

11 minutes ago, snowfan said:

I think he will in coordination w VA and DC. I'm expecting him to enter phase 1 in the may 15th time frame. That sets you up for phase 2 beginning june 1 if all goes well. We're talking another 40+ days from now.

I said earlier today June 1 was a good goal. 

9 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Did you see the Phases?

The testing, ppe/supplies, tracing stuff?

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think he will. He’s been great from what I can see from afar. 

He has done well, I agree. 

[jaydreb]

FAUCI: "You don't get to phase one until you get through the gating... if you get no rebound and satisfy the gating yet a second time, then you go to phase two. If you have no rebound and you satisfy the gating criteria for a third time, then you go into phase three."

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, jaydreb said:

FAUCI: "You don't get to phase one until you get through the gating... if you get no rebound and satisfy the gating yet a second time, then you go to phase two. If you have no rebound and you satisfy the gating criteria for a third time, then you go into phase three."

What’s the gating?

[mappy]

20 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

It all depends.  Somehow we’re still adding 700 cases a day. That needs to stop soon. 

....again, not all 700 were tested yesterday. We have no clue how much of that is backlog. I think paying attention to hospital admissions is good, as it gives an idea of the number of  people who are sick enough to have to be admitted. Maybe one day lag if it’s due to lack of updating the system, but it’s close to real-time

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

....again, not all 700 were tested yesterday. We have no clue how much of that is backlog. I think paying attention to hospital admissions is good, as it gives an idea of the number of  people who are sick enough to have to be admitted. Maybe one day lag if it’s due to lack of updating the system, but it’s close to real-time

Even if they’re from a week or two ago it’s still a problem.  Eventually we need the number of new cases to go down or this doesn’t end. 

[mappy]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

Even if they’re from a week or two ago it’s still a problem.  Eventually we need the number of new cases to go down or this doesn’t end. 

Of course, cases have to lower. But we’ve seen dramatic increases in case numbers as backlog eases. Without knowing when people were tested vs when results came back, it’s hard to truly grasp if it’s still spreading at high rates, or if it Is flattening. 

[Eskimo Joe]

36 minutes ago, mappy said:

I truly hope Hogan opens the state on a dimmer switch and not at all once. Ease into it. Pleaseeeee

Annapolis has been working very well with the counties thus far.  It's a damn sight better than what's happening between DC and everyone else.  The plan is to open things up with a dimmer and pauses in between to seen what acts as a vector.  I can tell you right now that mass transit is going to be tough because all of the GIS and public health community tracing data is pointing to that as an incredibly efficient vector for COVID19.  

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Annapolis has been working very well with the counties thus far.  It's a damn sight better than what's happening between DC and everyone else.  The plan is to open things up with a dimmer and pauses in between to seen what acts as a vector.  I can tell you right now that mass transit is going to be tough because all of the GIS and public health community tracing data is pointing to that as an incredibly efficient vector for COVID19.  

Thanks for sharing that tidbit. Have you seen the data yourself?

[jaydreb]

22 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

What’s the gating?

It’s here under “Criteria”.  https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

Satisfy Before Proceeding to Phased Comeback

SYMPTOMS

Downward trajectory of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) reported within a 14-day period

AND

Downward trajectory of covid-like syndromic cases reported within a 14-day period

CASES

Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period

OR

Downward trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests)

HOSPITALS

Treat all patients without crisis care

AND

Robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, jaydreb said:

It’s here under “Criteria”.  https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

Satisfy Before Proceeding to Phased Comeback

SYMPTOMS

Downward trajectory of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) reported within a 14-day period

AND

Downward trajectory of covid-like syndromic cases reported within a 14-day period

CASES

Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period

OR

Downward trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests)

HOSPITALS

Treat all patients without crisis care

AND

Robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing

 

Dang, nothing about overall testing capacity, ability to test symptomatic people, or contact tracing?

[jaydreb]

6 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Dang, nothing about overall testing capacity, ability to test symptomatic people, or contact tracing?

I don’t see it in the guidelines.   I haven’t watched the briefing yet so it’s possible it’s addressed by Birx/Fauci.  

EDIT: Apparently they are saying that each county within a state can be on a different Phase.  Not sure how well that will work considering that people travel around.  

[ErinInTheSky]

9 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Dang, nothing about overall testing capacity, ability to test symptomatic people, or contact tracing?

We'll never see widespread testing and contact tracing, unfortunately. Fauci has said many times we need it before we reopen but it looks like we're going to try to phase in without it.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Fear is driving this all right now. Most Americans are not sick from this and it appears it will stay that way. We are really good at compartmentalizing death stats and learning to ignore them. Look at what we do for mass shootings. Aka nothing. 

You just referenced one of the most embarrassingly horrific things about our society in an attempt to justify a similar policy advocacy  for something else!  Couldn’t we at least try thoughts and prayers first?  Next you’ll be saying stuff like “that’s just the way it is” or “shit happens”.   

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said:

Having to convert entire hospitals to ICUs is a major capacity problem and isn’t sustainable so I don’t see how you can say the hospital capacity concerns were unwarranted. 

Are those ICUs full? If not, it was just another overreaction same as ventilator need.

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said:

It all depends.  Somehow we’re still adding 700 cases a day. That needs to stop soon. 

Again, that's more testing. If they tested all Americans overnight they'd add like 5-10 million cases nationally and you guys would flip out.

[PhineasC]

Guys... you cannot be looking at daily test data and thinking "that many people caught the virus today." That's not at all what that means. There is no way for us to control that variable right now. Way too dependent on testing rates.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Guys... you cannot be looking at daily test data and thinking "that many people caught the virus today." That's not at all what that means. There is no way for us to control that variable right now. Way too dependent on testing rates.

Those are how many people caught the virus at some point in the not too distant past which is a very relevant piece of information. 

[PhineasC]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You just referenced one of the most embarrassingly horrific things about our society in an attempt to justify a similar policy advocacy  for something else!  Couldn’t we at least try thoughts and prayers first?  Next you’ll be saying stuff like “that’s just the way it is” or “shit happens”.   

Hey, if you want to be an emotional wreck over this and hope that Dr. Fauci bases his recommendations on daily death counts alone, that's your prerogative. I am choosing to be 100% rational and detached from this. Helps keep clarity. Looking at daily death numbers each night is completely unhelpful, academically and psychologically. 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Those are how many people caught the virus at some point in the not too distant past which is a very relevant piece of information. 

Could be weeks ago they caught it or the day before. Impossible to know. It's almost entirely a function of testing volume.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Could be weeks ago they caught it or the day before. Impossible to know. It's almost entirely a function of testing volume.

Yes, but for people to test positive, they have to have the virus.  And every day we test 150k people we find 30k with the virus.  That isn’t good.  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Hey, if you want to be an emotional wreck over this and hope that Dr. Fauci bases his recommendations on daily death counts alone, that's your prerogative. I am choosing to be 100% rational and detached from this. Helps keep clarity. Looking at daily death numbers each night is completely unhelpful, academically and psychologically. 

So we aren’t allowed to look at testing data because it might be a snapshot in time of a week or two ago, we aren’t allowed to look at deaths because for some reason how many people dying isn’t relevant.  So how are we supposed to analyze this?

[PhineasC]

20 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

We'll never see widespread testing and contact tracing, unfortunately. Fauci has said many times we need it before we reopen but it looks like we're going to try to phase in without it.

it's probably impossible here. Americans will tolerate mass death before they give up freedom and autonomy. Look at how we treat mass shootings. We buy more guns!

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yes, but for people to test positive, they have to have the virus.  And every day we test 150k people we find 30k with the virus.  That isn’t good.  

Yes, but if you tested everyone you'd find probably millions of cases which would drop the death rate into swine flu territory. That would be good news.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

So we aren’t allowed to look at testing data because it might be a snapshot in time of a week or two ago, we aren’t allowed to look at deaths because for some reason how many people dying isn’t relevant.  So how are we supposed to analyze this?

Read the studies coming out looking at estimated IFR and total infected. I have posted some here. Daily snapshots of deaths and "new cases" are not helpful and lead to bad analyses.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

it's probably impossible here. Americans will tolerate mass death before they give up freedom and autonomy. Look at how we treat mass shootings. We buy more guns!

You’re in a bubble.  Most people want to be safe.

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Yes, but if you tested everyone you'd find probably millions of cases which would drop the death rate into swine flu territory. That would be good news.

Finding more cases wouldn’t make the deaths go away.  Swine flu never came close to this rate of deaths.