COVID-19 Talk

[stormtracker]

So, I'm just seeing this thread for the first time.   Going to be honest, I'm not real comfortable with the political stuff.   Folks who know me know I can be really political, but here, not so much.  We have a political board for that.   I'll let it go, but it's making me kinda nervous.   I like most of you all and I know politics can fray some relationships.   I'm just sayin...

[Kmlwx]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So, I'm just seeing this thread for the first time.   Going to be honest, I'm not real comfortable with the political stuff.   Folks who know me know I can be really political, but here, not so much.  We have a political board for that.   I'll let it go, but it's making me kinda nervous.   I like most of you all and I know politics can fray some relationships.   I'm just sayin...

I've been lurking and I'm right there with you. 

It's VERY hard for people (even our best of friends on here) to keep things bipartisan when given the opportunity like this to start going at it. Would be great if this could legit be a discussion ONLY about the non-political aspects of the virus and what's going on). Politics very quickly edged their way into the thread. I'll show myself out now. 

[CAPE]

Yeah lets relax on the political stuff...

So I woke up feeling a little rough this morning- headache, stomach was off, and ofc given the situation, the tendency is to think every symptom you get is the onset of the virus. I legit was getting stressed thinking about staying away from my parents, etc. I feel ok now, but I am going to carefully "monitor" myself today. I feel like a hypochondriac lol.

[Baltimorewx]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah lets relax on the political stuff...

So I woke up feeling a little rough this morning- headache, stomach was off, and ofc given the situation, the tendency is to think every symptom you get is the onset of the virus. I legit was getting stressed thinking about staying away from my parents, etc. I feel ok now, but I am going to carefully "monitor" myself today. I feel like a hypochondriac lol.

Drink any heavy beers yesterday?

[CAPE]

Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Drink any heavy beers yesterday?

lol.

I had one plus a couple glasses of red wine. Nothing unusual.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

lol.

I had one plus a couple glasses of red wine. Nothing unusual.

That may be the issue..you are not drinking enough.  I’ve already had one plus a couple glasses of red wine..and it’s not 10 yet.  

[mappy]

okay all cleaned up. politics free as much as possible.

@showmethesnow if you wanna talk via PM later, feel free. otherwise the convo is over. 

stay well friends

[ErinInTheSky]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Some morning thoughts.

Just my opinion but looking at the infection rate increase charts is probably a not a good way to get a read on where we stand as far as the virus. The fact that we had very little testing initially and we are now continuing to increase testing is going to skew these charts. Now maybe there is a way to mathematically get a more accurate read considering all the variables but that is way above my pay scale. Think a far more accurate read, though faulty in its own right, would be to look at the deaths and those I would look at over several days as we will see a waxing and waning from day to day. And even this method will start to become skewed as doctors become better able to treat their patients through trial and error, if the malaria drugs/aids drugs actually are found to work or God forbid we see our hospitals crash.

We are seeing guesstimates that a vaccine will be available for mass distribution in the US in 1 to 1 1/2 years. This would be far to late to help if we see a secondary flareup in the Fall/Winter if this virus ends up being of the seasonal variety. Now I haven't really looked hard into this at this point so this is pretty much guesswork on my part from what little I have read. But from what I have seen so far the major hangups with the delay seem to be with our own internal regs/red tape as well as the mass production of any vaccine. I will make a prediction here. I bet we see a vaccine available for in the US in under a year. We will more then likely see a cutting of the red tap/regs. And as far as the mass production, after China's threat of with holding the vaccine I think we will see a concerted effort to put in place in-house production so we are not relying on outside players. Now really the question in my mind is can we get this done quickly enough in time for the flu season? After all we are talking roughly 8 months from now and it may be asking too much.

The biggest barrier to a vaccine is safety. If safety "red tape" gets cut, I'm not taking the vaccine. Vaccines are safe because they go through massive clinical trials. A rushed vaccine can absolutely have negative consequences, and has had negative consequences in the past with other vaccines that didn't go through extensive testing.

That + mass production is definitely the barrier to it getting in in under a year.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah lets relax on the political stuff...

So I woke up feeling a little rough this morning- headache, stomach was off, and ofc given the situation, the tendency is to think every symptom you get is the onset of the virus. I legit was getting stressed thinking about staying away from my parents, etc. I feel ok now, but I am going to carefully "monitor" myself today. I feel like a hypochondriac lol.

It's really hard, I suppose, to not wade too much into the political stuff with this issue.  Maybe it's the nature of the beast, I don't know.  Generally I try to avoid going into that too much in here (hopefully with some success!).  I admit to having very strong views on this subject and politically in general, and all I'll say is that I do not have any confidence or trust in the current Administration for much of anything.  To me, governors and other local governments are left trying to do their own thing however they can.

While I lean quite left (though not "extreme"), I have to give great credit to Gov. Hogan here in MD as a Republican.  Now, some of that may be due to the fact that the Statehouse here is heavily Democratic, so he's more moderate.  But regardless, he's done a good job here, not just with this but in general I think.  Same for some other Republican governors in other states, even if I disagree with them in general on policy, some have handled this crisis pretty darned well as Hogan has for the most part.

As for your feeling a little rough,  I hear you...it's hard not to automatically kind of worry.  But it is getting into peak allergy season, and I've noticed times I have a stuffy/runny nose, even a bit of a cough or slight headache, most likely due to that.  Dry air doesn't help (and it's been a bit dry lately, as well as breezy out).

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Some morning thoughts.

 

We are seeing guesstimates that a vaccine will be available for mass distribution in the US in 1 to 1 1/2 years. This would be far to late to help if we see a secondary flareup in the Fall/Winter if this virus ends up being of the seasonal variety. 

Actually, this is kind of what really worries me beyond this initial wave.  I've heard indications that this virus could well be a "seasonal" occurrence.  And keep in mind, this really showed up here more near the end of the regular flu season.  Come next fall, we'll be dealing with this for the full complement of that season.

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Actually, this is kind of what really worries me beyond this initial wave.  I've heard indications that this virus could well be a "seasonal" occurrence.  And keep in mind, this really showed up here more near the end of the regular flu season.  Come next fall, we'll be dealing with this for the full complement of that season.

We'll be more prepared next time, I truly believe that. Testing will be there enough to contact trace properly.

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

It's really hard, I suppose, to not wade too much into the political stuff with this issue.  Maybe it's the nature of the beast, I don't know.  Generally I try to avoid going into that too much in here (hopefully with some success!).  I admit to having very strong views on this subject and politically in general, and all I'll say is that I do not have any confidence or trust in the current Administration for much of anything.  To me, governors and other local governments are left trying to do their own thing however they can.

While I lean quite left (though not "extreme"), I have to give great credit to Gov. Hogan here in MD as a Republican.  Now, some of that may be due to the fact that the Statehouse here is heavily Democratic, so he's more moderate.  But regardless, he's done a good job here, not just with this but in general I think.  Same for some other Republican governors in other states, even if I disagree with them in general on policy, some have handled this crisis pretty darned well as Hogan has for the most part.

As for your feeling a little rough,  I hear you...it's hard not to automatically kind of worry.  But it is getting into peak allergy season, and I've noticed times I have a stuffy/runny nose, even a bit of a cough or slight headache, most likely due to that.  Dry air doesn't help (and it's been a bit dry lately, as well as breezy out).

You and I are probably pretty close on the political spectrum. I agree Hogan has done a great job, and yes I think he is a moderate republican. 

I am not really affected at all by pollen, so I would be able to tell if something was going on. I know people that have terrible allergies and one symptom is a persistent (dry) cough. My mom is one of those people.

[showmethesnow]

30 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah lets relax on the political stuff...

So I woke up feeling a little rough this morning- headache, stomach was off, and ofc given the situation, the tendency is to think every symptom you get is the onset of the virus. I legit was getting stressed thinking about staying away from my parents, etc. I feel ok now, but I am going to carefully "monitor" myself today. I feel like a hypochondriac lol.

Sounds like you are having a hankering for some wings from the local buffet. 

[showmethesnow]

24 minutes ago, mappy said:

okay all cleaned up. politics free as much as possible.

@showmethesnow if you wanna talk via PM later, feel free. otherwise the convo is over. 

stay well friends

I might PM you a little later. I did start looking into it until we got somewhat sidetracked with are civil's class.  Then my boss told me to jump. So I jumped. My wife can be pretty assertive when she's in the mood. Just getting back to the computer right now and will probably have to step away again shortly as I will most likely be doing most of the day.

Really, I like to spend time looking over everything and thinking it through before I like to commit. But I promise, I will make every effort to look into it at some point today. 

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I might PM you a little later. I did start looking into it until we got somewhat sidetracked with are civil's class.  Then my boss told me to jump. So I jumped. My wife can be pretty assertive when she's in the mood. Just getting back to the computer right now and will probably have to step away again shortly as I will most likely be doing most of the day.

Really, I like to spend time looking over everything and thinking it through before I like to commit. But I promise, I will make every effort to look into it at some point today. 

sure whatever

[showmethesnow]

37 minutes ago, mappy said:

okay all cleaned up. politics free as much as possible.

@showmethesnow if you wanna talk via PM later, feel free. otherwise the convo is over. 

stay well friends

Mappy, please tell me you didn't delete my comment on the WHO post I had. I spent quite a bit of time writing that up and I thought it brought up key information on why we didn't use this vaccine. And I am pretty sure it wasn't political or at the very most minimally political.

[Inverted_Trough]

Don't think it's possible to talk COVID without delving into politics.  As long as it doesn't get too personal we should let it go.

[Kmlwx]

Just now, Inverted_Trough said:

Don't think it's possible to talk COVID without delving into politics.  As long as it doesn't get too personal we should let it go.

It is definitely possible. The early discussion was about grocery store supplies etc. That type of discussion isn't political at all. Maybe it would be best if we kept the focus to the impacts on our local area and our membership specifically. I agree to an extent with you - but we can definitely have a discussion with our fellow forum members about the local impacts of COVID-19 without having it become a political slugfest in here. 

[H2O]

We are getting great leadership from our two local governors and mayor in DC. 
 

That can’t be argued. I’m just glad they have done what they have to help ALL the citizens in each location

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Mappy, please tell me you didn't delete my comment on the WHO post I had. I spent quite a bit of time writing that up and I thought it brought up key information on why we didn't use this vaccine. And I am pretty sure it wasn't political or at the very most minimally political.

i did. sorry if it got caught up with the clean up. wasnt personal.

[mappy]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

oh no, friend. i'm so sorry to hear. thinking of you and your family.  

[Kmlwx]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

So sorry to hear this. Hang in there! We are a pretty tight crew in here. 

[RDM]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

Sincere condolences to you and your family...  Regret this is likely going to touch us all in one way or another. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

I'm so sorry to hear about that, WxWatcher007.  For what it's worth, I send my deep condolences.  Take care of yourself and those close to you!  And like you say, despite the occasional political argument in this thread, I'm grateful for this community and the people in it...nice to know that other than bonding over weather, we can also discuss this current situation rationally for the most part.  And it does help.

[stormtracker]

27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

Oh man..I'm so sorry man.   Be assured, I have no intention of deleting this thread or moving it.   I sincerely hope your other family recovers man.  Keep us updated and we'll keep you in our prayers.

[H2O]

27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

OMG. I am so sorry this has taken someone you love. Terrible news and a life cut short because of this crisis. 
 

My deepest condolences to you and your family. If you need anything just PM or DM. 
 

 

[showmethesnow]

37 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

Never really know what to say when it comes to tragedy because no matter what I say it always feels like it is never enough. But my heart goes out for you and your family and I will keep your other two family members in my prayers. Something like this really drives home that what we discuss on these boards is not just an abstract subject but in fact a subject that will impact so many at a personal level. Again, love and prayers your way.

[gymengineer]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

I am so sorry. Praying for you and your family, and especially for the two members who are still in the hospital. I hope that in being strong for your family, you will find chunks of time, private they may be, to grieve and mourn and memorialize. You are strong and brave to be thinking about your family's needs. I wish all of your family comfort and closeness even with physical separation.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

I am so sorry to hear about your loss. I dont know you personally but I send prayers and condolences to you and your family at this time.

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Actually, this is kind of what really worries me beyond this initial wave.  I've heard indications that this virus could well be a "seasonal" occurrence.  And keep in mind, this really showed up here more near the end of the regular flu season.  Come next fall, we'll be dealing with this for the full complement of that season.

As supernovasky brought up. We will be better prepared at that point. But another factor that may play an even bigger part is that we will see nowhere near the infection rate we are currently seeing. This first round will be the biggie by far as I expect we at the very least see an infection rate of 15-20% throughout the States (think herd immunity starting to kick in somewhat as potential hosts have been taken out of the equation). I just don't think we are going to be able to escape this. That alone will dampen a decent amount the infection rate on any secondary go round. But that isn't the biggest thing to consider. If you note where the major hot spots are generally located they are for the most part centered on major metropolitan areas and they have been spreading outwards into the suburbs. These high density population centers are fertile breeding grounds for spreading this disease. We will see by far the highest infection rates within these cities. As they spread out the infection rates will continue to lower as the population density decreases until you get out into the rural areas where the infection rates will be very low. As far as the cities I really cringe when I consider some of the infection rates we may actually see especially with what we are seeing within NY. If I hear some reports approaching 35-40+  I don't think I would be that surprised. So what does that mean as for a possible followup? It means that there is a good chance that many of the major cities will approach if not achieve achieve herd immunity where the worst we see is sporadic cases here and there. This pretty much would take out these fertile breeding grounds that were pretty much the catalyst for spread. That leaves the areas outside of the cities to consider. They will have seen smaller infection rates but they also have lower population density. So the herd immunity factor is lower then the cities. So they may not achieve true herd immunity but they are probably getting close as to where it will have a fairly significant impact on infection rates. Then you get out into the rural regions. The rural regions will have the lowest infection rate probably by far of all as the population density just does not support a major flareup.

So all that said. If we do see a secondary peak come next year what would it look like? Well I wouldn't rule out some cities flaring up that are mostly spared this go round. But I think the focus will be more so centered on the suburbs which will probably mostly be composed of much smaller flareups that can be contained. Then in the rural areas we probably see sporadic cases or even possibly very minor flareups here and there. I doubt very much that we would need to see a major shutdown of the whole US again. It will be more in the way of shutting down smaller regions around these much smaller flareups. So really, I don't think any secondary surge with this virus will even sniff what we are currently in the middle of. It would probably be magnitudes lower in impacts.